Breeders Cup News and Notes

Breeders Cup Synthetics
by T.O. Whenham

I hate synthetic surfaces, I am sick of talking about them, and I resent that the Breeders' Cup has made them such a significant issue this year and last year. The choice to hold the event on the controversial surface two years in a row adds another level of difficulty to an event that is already extremely difficult to handicap. If you don't spend a lot of time understanding the surface and what it means for handicapping races then you're just not going to be successful.

So, what is a synthetic surface? Basically, it's a man-made surface that replaces sand or dirt on a race track. There are several different types or brands of synthetic surfaces, and the one that Santa Anita uses is call Pro-Ride. It's a mixture of recycled rubber, synthetic fibers, wax, sand, and who knows what else. There are two main reasons why advocates of the tracks tout them - they are supposed to be more consistent in a range of temperatures, and they are supposed to limit injuries and fatal breakdowns.

Those sound like good things, so why do I hate them so much? Synthetic tracks were adopted in a few places in the U.S. quite quickly - most notably in California where the tracks were legislated - in response to a legitimate, important desire to improve horse safety. The problem is that they were introduced before the impact of the tracks was understood scientifically, and the outcomes of the new tracks hasn't been conclusivly shown to be positive.

You can find examples where the synthetic surfaces have improved things, but they are only anecdotal, and there are equally compelling cases to be made for the use of dirt tracks. On top of that, the tracks that have gone synthetic have had a hard time finding a surface that works well for them - Santa Anita completely pulled out the surface and replaced it last year because it wasn't working properly. I would obviously be fully in favor of a track that was safer and more consistent, but I am not at all convinced that that is what synthetics actually offer.

Only a few major tracks in North America use synthetics - all California tracks, Woodbine, Arlington, Keeneland, and Turfway most notably. Not only do they use several different kinds of synthetic surfaces that are all somewhat different from each other, but those surfaces are all very different from the dirt tracks that are used at the rest of the major tracks in North America.

Though synthetics are designed to replace dirt tracks, the problem is that they are actually nothing like dirt. A horse that runs well on turf is, in many cases, more likely to run better on synthetics than a horse that has excels on dirt. If a horse has never run on synthetics before then you have absolutely no way of knowing how they will take to it.

The surface can turn a beast on dirt into a lamb on synthetics - as it did for Curlin last year. It can also allow horses familiar with and suited to the surface to gain an edge - Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator finished 1-2 in the Classic last year after racing on synthetics in Europe, and I am not at all convinced that they would have done the same on dirt. It goes both ways as well - one of the headaches of the spring is determining how horses that have prepped in California will do in the Kentucky Derby. By having different racing surfaces you are creating an uneven playing surface, and you are making a world championship event that isn't really a true measure of the best horses in the world. The most obvious example of that is Rachel Alexandra, the Preakness winning super filly who is skipping the Breeders' Cup entirely because of the surface.

I wouldn't have as much problem with the synthetic surfaces if the individual tracks themselves were consistent, but they really aren't When the synthetic surface was first put in at Del Mar it was like the horses were running through mud, and it took them more than a year to get it sorted out.

Santa Anita was fast last year. Because synthetics are supposed to be consistent you'd think that that would mean that we could learn a lot about what will happen this year from studying what happened last year. Not so fast. Though it is the same surface, the track is completely different than it was last year. Median times have been significantly slower, and as a result front runners have had a much harder time holding on to their leads. Not only do we have to figure out how horses will respond to this track, but we have to figure out how the track itself will perform. Have I mentioned I hate synthetics?

Determining how to deal with the surface is the single biggest challenge of handicapping the Breeders' Cup. Last year I was far from the only one who made the mistake of underestimating the impact of the track. I deciding to highlight the best horses in the fields, when what I should have been doing is highlighting the best horses for these very unique and limiting circumstances. I plan to adjust for that this year, and that will work as long as I can hit the moving target that these so-called consistent tracks present. The Breeders' Cup is still the fourth best event in North American horse racing, but this setting sure doesn't allow it to be it's best. Thankfully, it's heading to Churchill Downs, one of the world's great dirt tracks, next year.

Santa Anita Racing Surfaces Don't Favor Front-Runners
by Greg Melikov

If the 2009 Breeders' Cup plays out like last year's silver anniversary renewal at Santa Anita Park, don't expect front-runners to do well.

In fact, none of 14 races were won wire-to-wire on the main track or turf. Leading up to the two-day event, only five percent of the 14 winners at 1 1/16 miles on Pro-Ride led all the way.

Midshipman came closest to bucking the trend in the BC Juvenile. He broke a bit slowly, but rocketed to second after a quarter-mile and gained the lead by a half-length after four furlongs en route to winning by 1¼ lengths.

The son of Unbridled's Song man is going in the Dirt Mile on Saturday against a pretty good field including Mastercraftsman, Cowboy Cal, Regal Ransom, Bullsbay, Chocolate Candy and Pyro, the only returnee aiming to improve his sixth-place finish.

Last year, 18 percent of 11 winners were in front at every call at a mile on the main track before the BC races.

Albertus Maximus on that same Saturday afternoon, Oct. 25, rallied from ninth more than six lengths back after six furlongs, angled out five wide from fifth for the drive and scored by 1¼ lengths.

This year at a mile, 37 percent of 19 winners won on the front end with early speed performing best and inside the place to be, according to Brisnet.com. When it comes to 1 1/16 miles. 19 percent of 26 winners have gone wire to wire. Closers again have done well while racing inside was preferred.

Stalking was the most successful running style in many races before last year's two-day event. This year it's a mixed bag.

For example, last year from Sept. 24 to Oct. 11, only 12 percent of 32 winners led at every call of the six furlongs. The number jumped to 27 percent with inclusion of the next 11 races. Stalkers and breaking from mid-post positions were best.

Midnight Lute got off a bit slowly in the '08 Sprint, stalked the pace fifth more than three lengths back after a half-mile of the six furlongs and ran down Fatal Bullet in the stretch to repeat by 1 ¾ lengths. Fatal Bullet is the only returnee.

In 47 races at the distance this year, 21 percent of winners were on the front end. Closers again have performed well while the best posts were in the middle and outside.

Of last year's four BC routes on the turf, the winner closest to the pace after six furlongs was Goldikova in the Mile. The filly was 1½ lengths and a head behind in third, dropped to fourth in the stretch, but gained the lead with a quick burst of speed to triumph by 1 ¼ lengths.

The only returnee to take on the defending champ is Whatsthescript, who trailed in the stretch before rallying from 11th to finish third 4¾ lengths behind.

For the 41 races on the grass in '09, only 17 percent of winners have gone wire to wire.

Desert Code came roaring from more than 10 lengths behind in 11th after a half-mile to register a half-length victory in the last year's Turf Sprint at 6½ furlongs.

Three horses that finished off the board are hoping to unseat the defending champ this year: Fleeting Spirit, fourth; Get Funky, ninth; and California Flag, 10th.

In 24 sprints on the grass during the current meeting, 25 percent of winners led at every call.

Zenyatta made early 5-2 favorite in BC Classic

ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) -Zenyatta was made the early 5-2 favorite Tuesday in a field of 13 for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, where she'll put her 13-0 record on the line against the boys for the first time.

Zenyatta will break from the No. 4 post in Saturday's 1 1/4-mile race at Santa Anita.

She had also been pre-entered in Friday's $2 million Ladies' Classic, which she won last year.

But owners Jerry and Ann Moss, along with trainer John Shirreffs, had a bigger goal in mind for the 5-year-old mare, who has won all four of her starts this year.

``There's an opportunity to make history in the Classic, that's why we chose the Classic,'' Shirreffs said, referring to the fact that no female horse has ever won in the race's 25-year history.

Zenyatta will be just the fourth female to run in the Classic. Jolypha had the best result, finishing third in 1992. Azeri was fourth in 2004 and Triptych was sixth in 1986.

``I believe she deserves this chance,'' said Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who rides Zenyatta. ``If she gets her opportunity to run her race and she runs it like I know she can, we might see something pretty incredible.''

With a victory, Zenyatta would better Personal Ensign's career mark of 13-0 set from 1986-88. That filly retired as the first undefeated champion in American racing in more than 80 years.

``I hope it gets more people interested,'' Jerry Moss said. ``I hope it gets more people watching. I hope they get to appreciate Zenyatta for what she is - a great, unique, special equine athlete.''

Missing from America's richest race is Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra, the 3-year-old filly who won all eight of her races this year, including three victories over male competition.

Her owner, Jess Jackson, shut her down for the year because he doesn't like Santa Anita's synthetic surface, where his two-time Horse of the Year Curlin faded to fourth in last year's Classic.

Zenyatta has won 11 races on synthetic surfaces, including three on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride. Her lone win on traditional dirt came at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas.

She will take on a loaded field that includes 12 Grade 1 winners, including Ireland-bred Rip Van Winkle, the 7-2 early second choice, and Summer Bird, the 9-2 third choice who swept the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup but will test himself on synthetics for the first time.

``He's handled this from day one when we first brought him out over the racetrack,'' said Tim Ice, who trains Summer Bird. ``He's feeling out-of-this-world. He's coming into this race as good as he's come into any race.''

Rip Van Winkle will try to give Europe a second straight win in the Classic, where Raven's Pass triumphed last year and European horse Henrythenavigator finished second.

Mine That Bird, winless in four races since his stunning upset in the Kentucky Derby, was listed at 12-1, along with six other horses.

Trainer Chip Woolley Jr. shrugged off his colt's long shot status, saying, ``He won the Derby at 50-1.''

Trainer Bob Baffert, who will saddle Pacific Classic winner Richard's Kid, saluted the Mosses for giving Zenyatta a shot at the boys.

``That's pretty gutsy,'' he said. ``That's what our sport needs. We need a big boost right now and she's going to be our boost. Rachel (Alexandra) carried us to a certain point and this mare is going to the rest of the way.''

The 14 races to be run Friday and Saturday for the second consecutive year at Santa Anita are worth $25.5 million. A total of 149 horses were entered, including 30 from Europe.

Without Zenyatta, the Ladies' Classic attracted a field of eight, led by early 9-5 favorite Music Note.

Baffert will try to repeat in the $2 million Juvenile, where his colt Lookin at Lucky was installed as the 8-5 early favorite. He won a year ago with Midshipman.

The Hall of Fame trainer also has the morning line favorite in the $2 million Sprint with Zensational, who drew the No. 1 post and is listed at 7-5. Baffert is going for his third consecutive win in the six-furlong race.

Ireland-bred Goldikova is back to defend her title in the Mile on the turf as the early 8-5 favorite. Two other Ireland-breds are favorites in their races. Mastercraftsman is the 6-5 choice in the Dirt Mile, while Conduit is listed at 7-5 in the Turf.

Ventura is the defending champion and 8-5 early favorite in the Filly & Mare Sprint for ailing Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, who has been away from his stable most of the year because of an undisclosed illness.

10 Reasons The Breeders’ Cup is so Hard To Handicap
by T.O. Whenham

Let's not mince words - the Breeders' Cup is hard to handicap. Very, very hard. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't handicap it, of course. It just means that you need to be prepared. That means lots of study and preparation. It's also a pretty good idea to pay for some advice. I usually buy picks from several sources for the Breeders' Cup. I may or may not use them, but it gives me more of an insight into what people are thinking, and gives me a much better chance of success. Spending a few bucks up front for Breeders’ Cup picks always saves me much more in the end.

So, why is the Breeders' Cup so hard to handicap? Here are 10 reasons:

1. The number of races - The event is a marathon. There are 14 races over two days, and each one features big fields packed with top horses. It takes a long, long time to handicap each race - more than a normal race by far. Trying to be ready for all 14 races, or most of them, is not easy. I get tired just thinking about it.

2. Horses try new things - The horses are all top-notch runners that have excelled in some way to get there. In many cases, though, horses are doing things they haven't done before - turf horses trying the dirt, sprinters stretching out to a mile or distance horses shortening to a mile, fillies facing the boys for the first time, and so on. Every time a horse is doing something for the first time we are forced to guess how they will do. Most times we might just discount a horse making a change like this, but these horses are too good to be ignored.

3. Size of fields - It can be hard enough to figure out a typical stakes race with seven or eight horses entered. The Breeders' Cup can have fields as big as 14, and several races will be fully subscribed. Any time a field gets that big there are issues with crowds, post position, and race strategy that are especially difficult to decode. It's especially hard here because most of the horses that are entered belong in the races, so more horses mean more potential winners.

4. Size of betting pools - The Breeders' Cup draws enormous amounts of betting money. That means that the pools are large and reasonably efficient. Fat inefficiencies that can be exploited for profit on a slow Wednesday at your local track just don't exist on these days.

5. East versus West - Top American horse racing exists on both coasts, and the horses often don't co-exist during the year. When they do come together you have to determine the relative strength of the racing in both places so you can guess as to whether the standouts from one coast will be more successful than the other.

6. The Euros - It's not easy to get coverage of European racing during the year here, and it's not easy for us to understand their past performances because they are so different than ours. That means tat we largely have to guess about the quality of the European invaders and their chances. That's especially difficult in years when the host track has a dirt surface - something they rarely see in Europe.

7. Different ages - In many of the races you'll see the top three year olds taking on the top older horses - often for the first time. It's never easy to figure out if a horse is ready for that challenge, or how the three year old class stacks up against the elder statesmen.

8. Surfaces - I get a headache just thinking about this. The Breeders' Cup this year will be on a synthetic track. Many of the horses from the East Coast have run mostly or exclusively on dirt tracks. Some horses make the transition to the new surface easily. Others, like Curlin last year, really don't. Trying to determine the impact of the surface is the biggest single puzzle that handicappers face here.

9. Different trainers, different approaches - You can generally assume that a trainer that has a Breeders' Cup horse is pretty good. You can't assume, though, that they do things in a standard way. With so many talented trainers there are sure to be dozens of different approaches to preparing for these races, so it is harder than usual to determine if a horse is fit and ready to give his best performance.

10. Top jockeys galore - At most tracks during a regular meet you can be reasonably successful just based on jockey handicapping. You know that a decent looking horse with a top jockey on it stands a better chance than average of winning, and that a decent horse with a lousy jockey may not be likely to run its best race. The top jockeys in the world gather for the Breeders' Cup, so that means that there are very few weak riders in each race, and very few horses that you can eliminate on the basis of their likely bad ride.