Back to the Dirt: Compelling Breeders' Cup
by Steve Haskin
Welcome to the "Back to the Dirt" Breeders’ Cup, or "Downs and Dirty." The Breeders’ Cup, following two consecutive years run over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, has returned to Churchill Downs for the first time since 2006. Since then, Churchill has installed lights for night racing, and as a result the Ladies’ Classic (gr. I), to be run Friday, Nov. 5, will become the first ever prime time Breeders’ Cup race, with a 7:30 post. The lights also will be on for the following evening’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I), scheduled to be run at 6:45.
With the Breeders’ Cup back on dirt, and with the normally friendly grass surface of Churchill Downs generally having good give, a large contingent of horses from the United States and Europe is expected, including classic winners from both continents and several past Breeders’ Cup winners. Adding to the excitement and anticipation will be two strong representatives from Japan.
The main focus, of course, will be on "Mighty Mare"--Zenyatta--who hopes to conclude her amazing career in the Classic with her 20th victory in as many starts, her third straight Breeders’ Cup victory, and back-to-back wins in North America’s richest race. That will come approximately two hours after the French femme fatale, Goldikova, tries for an unprecedented three straight scores in the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. IT).
FRIDAY, NOV. 5
Marathon
Let’s start off the Breeders’ Cup festivities with the Marathon (gr. III), run at 1 3⁄4 miles for the second year.
Good luck trying to decipher this race. One top-class horse that could run here is Prince Will I Am, recent winner of the 11⁄8-mile Jamaica Handicap (gr. IT) on the grass at Belmont, who comes from the clouds with a powerful late kick.
A key race could be the 1 1⁄2-mile Turfway Park Fall Championship (gr. III). The first- and third-place finishers—Eldaafer and Atoned—are heading to the Marathon, as are Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II) winner Alcomo; Greenwood Cup winner A.U. Miner, who finished third in the Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (gr. II); Cougar II Handicap (gr. III) winner Temple City; and the late-closing Giant Oak, second in the Hawthorne Gold Cup.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien, who won this race last year with Man of Iron, will send over Bright Horizon, winner of a two-mile handicap at the Curragh in Ireland in his last start.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
The two big guns in here are Winter Memories, explosive winner of the Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. IIIT), and Kathmanblu, runaway winner of the JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes. Both these fillies pack quite a knockout punch and will take a lot of beating.
O’Brien will send Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile (Eng-I) runner-up Together. Also expected from Europe are Tale Untold, who was beaten a nose in two special weight races at Newmarket for Richard Hannon, and the Brian Meehan-trained Quiet Oasis, a close fourth in the C.L. Weld Park Stakes (Ire-III).
Others with impressive credentials are New Normal and More Than Real, one-two in the Natalma Stakes (Can-IIIT) at Woodbine; Arch Support, second in the Miss Grillo; and the Mazarine Stakes (Can-IIIT) winner Wyomia.
Sentient Jet Filly & Mare Sprint
This is one of the more contentious races in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, whether or not Evening Jewel runs here or in the Ladies’ Classic.
Champagne d'Oro may be the horse to beat off her victories in the grade I Betfair TVG Acorn and Test stakes. Her fourth in the recent Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II) over Keeneland’s Polytrack is a throwout race, as she never got hold of the track and still was beaten only two lengths. It seemed the same story with last year’s Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) winner Informed Decision, who should improve off her third-place finish in the TCA.
Dubai Majesty, who won the TCA, is always tough, placing in a number of grade I and II stakes this year. The horse they all have to catch is Rightly So, the Ballerina (gr. I) winner who has been in the money in all 11 of her career starts.
And if you’re looking for a sleeper in here, watch out for Godolphin’s Sara Louise, who was a fast-closing third in the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II) in her first start of the year. You also have this year’s Gallant Bloom winner My Jen.
To show how tough this race is, there are two fillies in here who came within a half-length of Zenyatta this year—Hollywood Oaks (gr. II) winner Switch (in the grade I Lady’s Secret) and Rinterval (in the grade I Clement Hirsch).
Emirates Airline Filly & Mare Turf
Between last year’s winner, Midday, who is in top form after winning the Prix Vermeille (Fr-I), and Plumania (if she runs here instead of the grade I Emirates Airline Turf), who beat the boys in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-I) and was second in the Prix Vermeille before turning in an uncharacteristically bad race in the Arc, the American fillies seem to be outclassed in here, especially with the talented Japanese filly Red Desire likely to improve off her third-place effort in the Flower Bowl Invitational (gr. IT) and the fact Godolphin’s Hibaayeb was able to rebound off three poor efforts in Europe and win the Yellow Ribbon (gr. IT).
The Americans will be headed by the indefatigable Forever Together, Beverly D. (gr. IT) winner Eclair de Lune, and Beverly D. runner-up Hot Cha Cha. Trainer John Shirreffs has a potential star in Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (gr. IT) and American Oaks (gr. IT) winner Harmonious, who has the talent to give the Euros all they can handle.
Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies
Even with the loss of Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) winner Rigoletta, you still have a solid top four with Spinaway (gr. I) winner and Frizette Stakes (gr. I) runner-up R Heat Lightning, Frizette winner A Z Warrior, Darley Debutante (gr. I) winner and Oak Leaf runner-up Tell a Kelly, and the undefeated Awesome Feather, who swept the Florida Stallion Series at Calder with an 8 1⁄4-length romp in the My Dear Girl division. It is important to note that her time for the 1 1⁄16 miles was 2 2/5 seconds faster than the colts ran in the In Reality.
Others to watch are Harlan's Ruby, runner-up in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I); Indian Gracey, third in the Oak Leaf; Jordy Y, third in the Alcibiades and second in the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr. III); Joyful Victory, third in the Frizette; and Izshelegal, fourth in the Oak Leaf.
Ladies’ Classic
Considering there are no Zenyatta and no Rachel Alexandra, this still should be a compelling race, pitting the top 3-year-old fillies in the country against some hard-knocking older mares.
In addition to the race as a whole, you have a race within the race, as Blind Luck attempts to nail down the 3-year-old female championship against her arch rival Havre de Grace, and possibly Evening Jewel, who may head to the Filly & Mare Sprint instead. Blind Luck, who amazingly will be making her sixth cross-country trip this year, holds a 2-1 advantage over Havre de Grace, and is 2-0 against Evening Jewel (both wins by a nose), and her Gulliver-like travels this year will give her a great deal of leverage with the voters.
The older fillies and mares will be headed by Beldame Stakes (gr. I) winner Life At Ten, along with Beldame runner-up Unrivaled Belle and Persistently, winner of the Personal Ensign Stakes (gr. I) and third in the Beldame.
SATURDAY, NOV. 6
Juvenile Turf
The Americans will be out for revenge after last year’s victory by the English-trained Pounced, the 2-1 favorite. There are no standouts on the home team, with the possible exception of Rogue Romance, the impressive winner of Keeneland’s Bourbon Stakes (gr. IIIT).
The others of note are Pilgrim Stakes (gr. IIIT) winner Air Support, Summer Stakes (Can-IIIT) winner Pluck, and With Anticipation (gr. IIIT) winner and Pilgrim runner-up Soldat.
Dirt Mile
This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining and contentious of all the Breeders’ Cup races. Run for the first time at a mile on the dirt, the Dirt Mile (gr. I) will be run out of a straightaway, which makes it, for the first time, a true mile test.
An eclectic group is being assembled, including a Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner (Mine That Bird), a Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) winner (Awesome Gem), and a number of talented sprinters and milers.
Godolphin will fire a potent one-two punch in Vineyard Haven, who should improve off his third-place finish in the Forego Stakes (gr. I), and Gayego, winner of the Presque Isle Mile. Their main threat likely will come from Tizway, a natural miler who won the recent Kelso Handicap (gr. II) by five lengths in 1:34.42.
From the West comes a real sleeper in Crown of Thorns, who has proved to be a dangerous foe at six furlongs, seven furlongs, 1 1⁄16 miles, and 1 1⁄8 miles. Plagued with injuries throughout his career, he could be ready for a breakout performance if he handles the dirt. One of the local horses is Here Comes Ben, winner of four straight, including his breakout race in the Forego at odds of 9-1.
Turf Sprint
Like most turf sprints, this is your typical pick-out-of-a-hat race, as just about anyone is capable of winning. Two of the top contenders are fillies: Unzip Me, impressive winner of the Sen. Ken Maddy Handicap (gr. IIIT) at Hollywood Park; and Rose Catherine, winner of the Turf Amazon Handicap and Lena Spencer Stakes.
They’ll be facing Woodford Stakes (gr. IIIT) winner Silver Timber, Woodford runner-up Central City, Turf Monster Handicap winner Chamberlain Bridge, Nearctic Stakes (gr. IT) runner-up Grand Adventure, Morvich Handicap (gr. IIIT) winner Quick Enough, last year’s Turf Sprint winner California Flag, who most recently finished last of 11 in the Woodford, and a host of other hard-knocking stakes horses.
Grey Goose Juvenile
This will be one of the most widely anticipated races in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, as it has the potential to unveil racing’s next superstar and hot early favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
Undefeated Champagne (gr. I) winner Uncle Mo is on the verge of stardom and could be one of the most exciting young horses we’ve seen in a while. But his stablemate, Stay Thirsty, second in Saratoga’s Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (gr. I), also has star power and a pedigree that shouts classics. If you listen to trainer Rick Dutrow, you’d be convinced that Hopeful winner Boys At Tosconova is the next coming, and this from the trainer of Big Brown . These three Beasts from the East will square off against California invaders Jaycito and J.P.’s Gusto, the one-two finishers of the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I), and possibly J.B.’s Thunder, an easy wire-to-wire winner of the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I).
The others are going to have to turn in a freaky performance to defeat this group.
TVG Mile
Despite a talented group of horses pointing for the Mile, this is all about Goldikova and her quest for three straight victories in this event, which would be an amazing accomplishment, considering how tough a race this is to win. Luck often plays a major role because of the importance of post positions and the potential for traffic problems. But the French phenom has overcome it all.
This should be her toughest test, with the possible presence of last year’s dual Eclipse Award winner Gio Ponti, who also is pre-entered for the Classic, as well as the blazingly fast Sidney's Candy; America’s top grass filly, Proviso, who has been a win machine this year; Goldikova’s shadow in Europe, Paco Boy, who is trying one final time to beat her; the Woodbine Mile (gr. IT) winner Court Vision; and several others with top credentials.
Sentient Jet Sprint
If you have a fast sprinter with even a touch of class, then this is the year you’ll want to try for the Sprint. With the two most accomplished sprinters in the country, Discreetly Mine and Majesticperfection, on the sidelines, the race is up for grabs.
Godolphin’s lightly raced Girolamo, winner of the Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I), could go off as the favorite but certainly is no standout. His likely challengers include Smiling Tiger, winner of the grade I Ancient Title and Bing Crosby stakes; the lightly raced Wise Dan, winner of the Phoenix (gr. III) at Keeneland; Smile Handicap (gr. II) winner Big Drama; the international traveler Kinsale King, winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (UAE-I) at Meydan and a solid third in the Golden Jubilee Stakes (Eng-I) at Royal Ascot; and Vosburgh runner-up Riley Tucker.
If your name is not among this group, don’t worry; you still have a legitimate shot to win this race.
Emirates Airline Turf
If there is one consistent factor regarding the Turf, it’s that we have pretty much the same script every year. How are the lowly Americans going to withstand the high-powered European invasion?
It looks on paper as if nothing has changed this year. Do major stakes winners such as Winchester, Al Khali, Champ Pegasus, and Telling actually have a prayer against Investec Epsom Derby (Eng-I) and Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) winner Workforce; Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I) and Qatar Prix Niel (Fr-II) winner Behkabad, the Arc favorite who finished fourth, despite a dreadful trip; and Arlington Million (gr. IT) winner Debussy, who is coming off a good third in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Eng-I) after setting all the pace?
Winchester will be the main hope of the Americans, but the one horse that has demonstrated the turn of foot to outkick the Euros is Al Khali, who was much the best in the Canadian International. And Champ Pegasus is coming into the race in peak form.
Classic
Zenyatta takes on the world. If the daughter of Street Cry is going to go out in the proverbial blaze of glory, she’s going to have to work for it. Unlike last year, this year’s Classic will consist mainly of the top dirt horses in the country, and Zenyatta will have to face them after traveling cross-country and racing on dirt for only the third time in her career. Her main competition is expected to come from Whitney (gr. I) and Stephen Foster (gr. I) handicaps winner Blame, who is three-for-four at Churchill Downs; Metropolitan Mile (gr. I) and Woodward Stakes (gr. I) winner Quality Road ; and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and IZOD Haskell Invitational Stakes (gr. I) winner Lookin At Lucky.
But those three are not the only horses that pose a threat to Zenyatta. Along with Quality Road, the other strong pace presences are Haynesfield, who ran off from Blame to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) on the front end; Etched, the gutsy winner of the Monmouth Cup (gr. II); the wire-to-wire Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) winner Morning Line; the ultra-consistent First Dude; and the Japanese invader Espoir City, impressive winner of last year’s Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-I).
The midpack threats include Lookin At Lucky and the game and consistent Musket Man. Blame could lurk in mid-pack or take back, depending on the severity of the pace.
If Zenyatta is going to prevail, she will have to out-close stretch runners Blame, Travers Stakes (gr. I) runner-up Fly Down, the explosive Paddy O’Prado, and possibly the late-charging grass star Gio Ponti, who has been pre-entered in both the Classic and Mile.
It all adds up to a memorable Classic.
Zenyatta leads Cup charge
By Mike Dempsey
Undefeated Zenyatta Headlines Breeders’ Cup Hopefuls
The undefeated Zenyatta will lead the parade to Churchill Downs on Nov. 5-6 for the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.
However, she will not be alone.
A record of 184 horses were pre-entered for the 2010 Breeders’ Cup, which will be run for the 27th time this year under the Twin Spires at the historic Louisville track.
For the first time in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, the Ladies Classic on Friday and the Classic on Saturday will be run under the lights.
The buzz for this year’s Breeders’ Cup has been like no other, with Zenyatta looking to end her career on a high note by winning a Breeders’ Cup race for the third year in a row and ending her career unbeaten.
The brilliant mare won the Ladies Classic in 2008, and then beat the boys last year at Santa Anita.
With all the attention she has garnered throughout her career, complete with an appearance on “60 Minutes” on CBS this Sunday, the mare figures to go off at short odds in the Classic.
However, she will face a strong group trying to end her winning streak and put her bid for the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year in peril.
A solid group of males will take her on, including Grade 1 winners Blame, Gio Ponti, Lookin At Lucky, Quality Road, Haynesfield, and Paddy O’Prado.
Multiple Group 1 winner Espoir City ships in from Japan to add some international flavor to this year’s Classic.
While winning her first two Breeders’ Cups over a synthetic surface, Zenyatta is faced with returning to conventional dirt this year.
She has raced on dirt just twice in her career, both of those wins coming in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn Park.
History very well could be made several hours before Zenyatta hits the track, as Goldikova will be seeking to become the first horse to win the same Breeders’ Cup race three years in a row when she goes off as the short priced favorite in the Mile.
The brilliant mare is coming into the Mile this year in top form for trainer Freddy Head and will be ridden again by Olivier Pelsier, who rode the mare perfectly in her two trips over the turf at Santa Anita.
The highly regarded Workforce will be making his U.S. debut, attempting to become the first Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) winner to return a month later to win the Turf.
The Juvenile usually points out the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1), and this year’s race looks like a showdown between Boys At Tosconova and Uncle Mo, two very fast two-year-olds.
Boys At Tosconova is coming off a win in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga for trainer Rick Dutrow, who trained 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown.
Todd Pletcher will saddle Uncle Mo, who won the Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park in impressive fashion in his second career start.
There will be several other familiar races taking to the track next week. Midday (Filly and Mare Turf), Informed Decision (Filly and Mare Sprint), and California Flag (Turf Sprint) are back to defend their titles, while Forever Together will be trying to recapture the form that helped her capture the Filly & Mare Turf in 2008.
Breaking Down Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup
By Matt Carothers
As I lay out my Breeders’ Cup selections, remember that I am not trying to win races. I’m trying to win money. I’d rather collect on one 15-1 shot than win three races with favorites.
For each of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races, I’ll list three horses with their morning line odds–the horse to beat, not necessarily the favorite — the horse to bet, my selection — and the tri-shot, a bomb that can finish in the top three and light up the trifecta payoff.
Here’s how I see the six Breeders’ Cup races on Friday.
The Marathon
Sorry, but this is a race I’m not too excited about as a player. A few days ago when Awesome Gem had pre-entry odds of 12-1, I got fired up when he opted for this race. Now look what’s happened–he’s the 7-2 morning line favorite! The line maker must be reading this blog. I’m going to hope that Giant Oak’s goose egg for 2010 will fatten his price. The farther they go, the more value I place on the jockey and I got Go-Go (Garret Gomez) in this one. Bright Horizon is actually shortening up for this marathon.
Horse to Beat: Awesome Gem, 7-2
Horse to Bet: Giant Oak, 4-1
Tri-Shot: Bright Horizon, 10-1
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Winter Memories showed an impressive turn of foot in winning the Miss Grillo at Belmont and deserves to be favored. More Than Ready was hurt by a slow pace in her last race at Woodbine. Tale Untold closed into a slow pace in her last race at Newmarket.
Horse to Beat: Winter Memories, 2-1
Horse to Bet: More Than Real, 10-1
Tri-Shot: Tale Untold, 15-1
Filly and Mare Sprint
Super betting race as I think the defending champion, Informed Decision, has lost a step and I get a 6-1 morning line on the horse I think you have to beat. My choice relies on Bob Baffert having Gabby’s Golden Gal ready to win off an eight month layoff. Can you think of anybody better to rely on? Big exotic potentials abound.
Horse to Beat: Champagne d’Oro, 6-1
Horse to Bet: Gabby’s Golden Gal, 15-1
Tri-Shot: Rinterval, 20-1
Juvenile Fillies
From pulling for Bob Baffert to trying to beat his 7-2 early favorite, A Z Warrior. I think we can. And not with the West Coast’s Tell a Kelly, who doesn’t seem at home at Churchill according to our able team on TVG’s “The Works.” I like Theyskens’ Theory and, based on her breeding, she should have no problem moving onto the dirt. I wanted to pick Terry Knight’s maiden longshot, Izshelegal, as I have so much respect for his training abilities and know that he rarely over spots a horse. If he has her here, he thinks she can win. No typo below.
Horse to Beat: Theyskens’ Theory, 10-1
Horse to Bet: Theyskens’ Theory, 10-1
Tri-Shot: Izshelegal, 30-1
Filly and Mare Turf
Midday is the horse to beat. Period. But, it looks like we might be able to squeeze out as much as 5-1 on a horse that was 6-1 in the Dubai World Cup. The sensational Japanese filly, Red Desire, came up a bit short in her last effort, the Grade 1 Flower Bowl, but that was off a 4 1/2 month layoff. She should be ready at a very attractive price.
John Shirreffs’s “other” filly, Harmonious, is no slouch.
Horse to Beat: Midday, 6-5
Horse to Bet: Red Desire, 8-1
Tri-Shot: Plumania, 8-1
The Ladies Classic
Got to love the aggressive campaign of Blind Luck, but has all those close, gut-wrenching races taken their toll? I’m more inclined to make Life at Ten the mare to beat. She has won 7 of 8, losing only when she set those torrid fractions with Rachel in the Personal Ensign. I like Acoma coming off a nice win and returning to Churchill where she’s 2 for 2.
Horse to Beat: Life at Ten, 7-2
Horse to Bet: Acoma, 20-1
Tri-Shot: Persistently, 12-1
Haskin's BC Report: Longshots Make Your Day
By Steve Haskin
We all know who the favorites are and who the contenders are. But we also know that no Breeders’ Cup is complete without its share of longshots.
So here goes. Try these Friday longshots on for size.
MARATHON
It’s actually hard to figure out who the longshots are in this race and who the contenders are, it’s that evenly matched.
It’s been three years since Atoned has been on the Derby trail, but he still has that back class to fall back on. He has a victory over Alcomo and Eldaafer in the 1 ½-mile Nasty and Bold Stakes in the slop at Belmont. This year’s he’s been third behind Redding Colliery in the nine-furlong John B. Campbell, run in a sprightly 1:47 1/5. In his third and most recent start after being sent to Neil Howard, he rallied from last to finish a close third, beaten three-quarters of a length by Eldaafer, in the 1 ½-mile Turfway Park Fall Championship (gr. III).
He’s been training at Churchill Downs, breezing a mile in 1:44 on Oct. 20, and the feeling here is that his back class and natural speed and stamina make him a live longshot at 20-1.
One horse who has caught the eye in the morning and in the afternoon grazing is Gabriel's Hill, who can take them a long way on the front end at 20-1. Don’t ignore this son of A.P. Indy , who was beaten a nose by Alcomo in the final jump of the Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II).
As a side note, although he’s only 9-2 on the morning line, A. U. Miner looks terrific. He’s quite an eyeful, and you might not want to keep this grand-looking son of Mineshaft off your exotic tickets.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
It’s going to be a mighty task knocking off both Winter Memories and Kathmanblu, so we can’t strongly endorse any longshot, although the latter’s 10-1 odds seem awfully high. One of the Europeans, Flood Plain, has some upside at 20-1. She has been running in big fields, has only two starts, and her two grandsires, Lure and Zafonic, were two of the most brilliant grass milers we’ve seen over the past 20 years.
The other Euros have good credentials and any one of them can spring an upset, but trying to figure out which one is not easy.
Of the other North Americans, Wyomia, is somewhat attractive at 12-1, assuming you’re willing to gamble she’ll handle the turf as well as the Polytrack. Her speed figures are excellent, and she’s won her last two, including the Mazarine Stakes (Can-IIIT).
FILLY & MARE SPRINT
This is a total crapshoot. Very few fillies in here would be a major surprise, and the recommendation here is to box Champagne d'Oro (6-1), whose last was a toss; Evening Jewel (15-1; yes, we said 15-1), who is all class at any distance over any surface; and Sara Louise (15-1), who should improve by leaps and bounds off her last start, which was her first of the year. She showed what she’s capable of last year, and we like all three of these to run big.
Good luck on this race. It is tough to say the least.
JUVENILE FILLIES
We have another exotics box, and two of the three are live longshots. Joyful Victory, who is our longshot special in this race at 15-1, broke her maiden from the 12-post at a mile and 70 yards at Delaware Park for trainer Tony Dutrow. She ran a game race to win by a neck, with the runner-up finishing 7 ¼ lengths ahead of the third horse. That is impressive in a 12-horse field. She then dropped back to one turn in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) and ran a respectable third behind the two Juvenile Fillies favorites, A Z Warrior and R Heat Lightning. She should relish a return to two turns.
Believe in A.P. broke her maiden at Philly Park in her fourth career start, which does not sound like the resume of the BC winner, but that victory was accomplished under wraps, with the daughter of A.P. Indy winning off by 12 ¾ lengths. Her two prior starts were on the turf, and her debut was a toss after she broke poorly. She’s 15-1 and could be any kind.
A win bet on both these fillies looks enticing.
The third horse is Awesome Feather (6-1), who is undefeated in five starts at Calder, and her last, a sweep of the Florida Stallion Stakes series, was spectacular, as she romped by 8 ¼ lengths, and her time was 2 2/5 seconds faster than the colts ran in the In Reality division of the Stallion series on the same card. Who knows how good she is?
FILLY & MARE TURF
Yes, you have Midday and Plumania, and Harmonious, but our best bet of the day is Red Desire, although she’s only 8-1 on the morning line. The Japanese-trained filly was flying fastest of all at the end of the Japan Cup (Japan-I) last year, beaten 1 ½ lengths by the great Vodka. In that race, she finished ahead of Conduit, who was coming off his second straight score in the BC Turf (gr. IT).
Red Desire also has defeated Buena Vista, who ran second in the grade I Dubai Sheema Classic on World Cup night this past March. She ventured to Dubai herself, where she nailed eventual Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) winner Gloria de Campaeo in the final strides on the Tapeta surface.
She was brought back only 1 ½ months later and finished a fast-closing fourth in a grade I in Japan going a mile. Out for 4 ½ months, she was trained extremely lightly for the Flower Bowl Invitational (gr. IT) and still finished a solid third over a bog, in which she showed more early pace than usual, struck the front too soon, and hung on gamely to soft-course specialist Ave, beaten only three-quarters of a length.
She turned in the most impressive work we’ve seen at Churchill Downs over the past week, breezing five panels in :59 3/5, with Kent Desormeaux never moving his hands on her. He knows her much better now with the Flower Bowl behind him, and we feel she will return to her late-running style and run a bang-up race. And she gets the firm course she likes.
She looks like a strong play to win and in the exotics with the contender or contenders of your choice.
For two monster bombs, don’t ignore Miss Keller and Keertana, even though they seem outclassed in this tough field.
LADIES CLASSIC
We are in love with Blind Luck and respect Life At Ten, but Persistently, at 12-1, looks extremely enticing in here. Her victory over Rachel Alexandra may not be the fluke most think it is, and she did beat Life At Ten by over 10 lengths.
She had no shot in the Beldame (gr. I) over a speed favoring track and in a five-horse field, and did well enough to finish third. She looks good and sharp physically and mentally and appears to be at the top of her game. All in all, she seems to be flourishing at Churchill Downs.