The Open Championship Preview
By Dan Daly
VegasInsider.com
After going three for four in the 2015 Majors, admittedly my 2016 Major picks couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start (thanks Rory). However just like NBC and my man Johnny Miller, this is the week I make my “Ali like return to the ring.” Outside of the Masters, the British Open is my second favorite Major of the year, and with the return of Johnny to the booth, what’s not to love?
Royal Troon will host its ninth British Open this week. Like most British Open courses, Troon couldn’t play any more different going out than coming in. The front nine plays much easier going out (downwind) and much more difficult on the back nine coming in (into the wind), which should make the final nine holes Sunday afternoon very interesting if the wind is up. To put it another way, Gary Player famously said, the back nine at Troon is, “the most difficult in the world when the wind is blowing.”
So the question as always is; who will survive the wind and be holding the Claret Jug come Sunday afternoon?
Here are the 18 to watch (sorted by odds):
18. Jason Day (8/1): Let’s start at the top with the number one player in the world. Despite winning seven of his last 19 tournaments, Day still “only” has one Major win to his credit. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he added a second win this week but I don’t see it happening. Day’s ball flight along with his forgettable Sunday at the WGC leave cause for concern. I think a sixth straight Top 10 this week is all but a lock, just not his second Major victory.
17. Rory McIlroy (8/1): After refusing to buy into the Rory hype for the last two years I reluctantly drank the kool-aid this year not once (Masters - T-10), but twice (US Open - MC) and got burned badly each time. So Rory is officially dead to me…which probably means he will win the British Open. Outside of his win at the Irish Open, McIlroy frankly has done very little the last 22 months to indicate any chance of winning this week.
16. Jordan Spieth (8/1): The past six British Open winners at Royal Troon have been American, with the last two (Leonard and Hamilton) having Dallas ties. This will of course mean absolutely nothing when he tees it up starting Thursday morning. Spieth has always seemed to play his best golf with a chip on his shoulder and has several coming into this week. Most recently he got passed by DJ to drop to number three in the OWGR last week. I know he said he's trying to play quicker and have more fun, but you have to wonder if that’s working against him based on his recent play? Spieth is the biggest wildcard in the field to me this week. Nothing he does, from winning, to missing the cut, will surprise me.
15. Dustin Johnson (17/2): After finally getting his first major last month at Oakmont, DJ could win the next six Majors and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Day might be the number one player in the world but DJ is the hottest. With that said, I think the British Open and this course in particular might be the one place DJ could struggle a little. And by struggle, I mean finish outside of first but inside the Top 10.
14. Justin Rose (24/1): Rose has three missed cuts in his last six British Open’s and only one Top 10 as a pro (last year). My bigger issue with Rose though is his back problem. He tried to give it a go at the US Open and missed the cut. I don’t bet on golfers that are injured. Until his back is fully healthy, I’ll pass on Rose.
13. Sergio Garcia (25/1): If Sergio is ever going to win a major, one would have to assume the British Open would be it with nine top 10’s, including two runner-up finishes. But…it’s Sergio Garcia and it’s a major.
12. Henrik Stenson (25/1): Stenson finally ended his winless drought last month at the BMW International Open in Germany and followed it up with a respectable T-13 at the Scottish Open this past weekend. Will he continue his solid play at the British Open? Probably. Will it be solid enough to get him the Claret Jug come Sunday? No.
11. Rickie Fowler (27/1): Yes, Rickie Fowler has two top 5’s in only six British Open starts, and yes Fowler has always thrived when it comes to playing in the wind. But the guy has four missed cuts in his last eight starts including both Majors in 2016 as well the PLAYERS and the Memorial. At this point, just making the cut at the British Open would be a victory for Fowler.
10. Branden Grace (29/1): The good news for Grace is that he has made the cut in all five of his British Open starts. The bad news, his best finish so far is a T-20 (coming last year). I think if Grace were to win a major it would come at the US Open, not the British Open.
9. Danny Willett (30/1): Todd Hamilton’s win here in 2004 put him in the conversation of the most out of nowhere Major Champions in golf history. Even as the 9th ranked player in the world, Danny Willett joining the very small list of multiple Major winners in the same year wouldn’t be quite as shocking as Hamilton’s win but it wouldn’t be too far off either. I’ll play the odds here that Willett doesn’t join that list.
8. Louis Oosthuizen (33/1): Louis has a win and runner up when playing the British Open at St Andrews. In his seven other British Open starts…his best finish is a T-19 with two missed cuts. Until the British Open returns to St Andrews in 2020 I’ll pass on Louis.
7. Shane Lowry (35/1): Can he put that final round at the Oakmont behind him this quickly? Based on his play at the WGC I would have to say no.
6. Phil Mickelson (35/1): Mickelson comes in with a lot of momentum off his final round 66 at the Scottish Open…very similar to DJ coming into the US Open off his final round 63 at the St Jude. He also finished solo 3rd here at the 2004 British Open (one shot out of the playoff). But two missed cuts in his first two majors of 2016 are much more concerning. I think Phil is around for the weekend but that’s about as good as you can expect from him this week.
5. Zach Johnson (55/1): Believe it or not, Zach Johnson has one of the best recent records of anyone on tour at the British Open. Along with his win last year, he also has top 10’s in three of last four years. With his history here and coming off a T-8 at the U.S. Open I fully expect Johnson to be somewhere on or near the leaderboard this week but the words “Zach Johnson wins back-to-back British Opens” just aren’t plausible to me.
4. Patrick Reed (65/1): Top 10 finishes by Patrick Reed in a major prior to the 2016 British Open…zero. Top 10 finishes by Patrick Reed in a major following the 2016 British Open…zero
As for my top three picks this week. With a good variety in odds, I’m taking a piece of each of them, all for different reasons.
3. Brandt Snedeker (60/1): At 60/1, this is my dark horse pick…or my weather insurance pick. Sneds could win or miss the cut by 5 shots, and it will probably all depend on the weather. The nastier the weather the more I like this pick. There might not be a better bad weather player on the planet than Sneds. His win earlier this year at Torrey Pines came in a monsoon similar to that of the Bishop’s round from Caddyshack. The guy gets better as the weather gets worse. The forecast for Troon as of today is calling for a relatively calm four days by British Open standards; but as everyone knows that can change in a moment’s notice. And if it does change for the worse, having a smaller play on Snedeker at 60/1 should be well rewarded.
2. Lee Westwood (40/1): At 40/1, this is both an emotional and gut pick. He finished 4th here in 2004 and has four total top 5 finishes in the British Open. The fact that he was T-2 at the Masters this year and was in the penultimate group of the final round at Oakmont, I’d say he is clearly playing well in 2016. My general rule has always been, if it’s a major stay away from Westwood, Sergio and DJ. But if DJ can finally get the monkey off his back of winning a major…why not Westwood four weeks later? And at 40/1 no less.
1. Adam Scott (20/1): At 20/1, this is the best value and safest pick in the field. The guy is simply a stalwart on the British Open leaderboard lately with five top 10’s…including four in a row. Quite frankly it's hard to believe he hasn't claimed a claret jug already with the way he's played in this event the past few years. If not for four straight bogeys out of nowhere on the back nine in both 2012 AND 2013 the guy would probably have back to back Claret Jugs already. While he’s obviously cooled down from his torrid start to 2016, I think this is the year he finally keeps it together on the back nine Sunday and wins his first British Open turning my 2016 back into a profitable year.
19th hole – Of course, the smart thing to do is just ignore everything I have said to this point and bet on the one and only…the 1995 British Open Champion…John Patrick Daly at 1000/1.
Golfers to Bet - British Open
By Sportsbook.ag
The world’s top golfers will head to Scotland for The Open Championship on Thursday, Jul. 14. Last year, Zach Johnson emerged as the winner of the oldest of the four major championships. He shot a 15-under in that tournament, defeating both Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen in a four-hole playoff.
The last time Royal Troon hosted this tournament, Todd Hamilton was the golfer that ultimately won. He shot a 10-under that year, but that number may not be good enough to win it in 2016.
One major absence on the 7,175-yard course will be Tiger Woods. Woods is still recovering from a back injury that has taken him away from a majority of the past two seasons worth of golf. It’s a shame that he won’t be out there, as he holds the tournament record with a score of 19-under back in 2000.
Fortunately, the field will still have guys like Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Justin Rose. Johnson is the hot hand coming in, having won the U.S. Open in the middle of June and following that performance up with a win at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational later in the month.
With that out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the best value plays heading into the British Open:
Golfers to Bet
Dustin Johnson (8/1) - It’s not always fun to choose chalk, but it’d just be irresponsible to leave Johnson off of this list. Heading into The Open Championship, Johnson has come away with victories in each of the past two tournaments he has played in. One of those tourneys was the U.S. Open back in mid-June, when Johnson shot a four-under to win his first ever major. He is putting better than ever and that has always been the part of his game that has been missing. Johnson is a monster off the tee and has the in between game as well. As long as he can make some putts then he’ll be in the hunt on championship Sunday. He’s worth putting a few units on at 8/1 in this tournament and will likely be a force for the remainder of the season, as his confidence is sky high right now.
Rickie Fowler (30/1) - Fowler has really been miserable in the biggest tournaments this year, failing to make the cut at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the U.S. Open. That type of play certainly isn’t encouraging, but he is still one of the most talented players on the TOUR and that is why he is seventh in the OWGR. Fowler has the total package on the golf course, but he is a headcase of sorts. He is capable of taking himself out of any tournament when the going gets tough, so it’s important that he remains cool on the opening day of this tournament. If he can get off to a hot start then it’s very likely that he’ll be a threat to win come Sunday. He’s worth taking a shot on at 30/1, as he is not the type of player to get favorable odds like these often.
Justin Rose (30/1) - Justin Rose is yet another golfer that has had a bit of a disappointing season, but he is still the 11th ranked golfer in the OWGR. Rose has also been competitive at the bigger tournaments this year, tying for 10th at The Masters and tying for 19th at the PLAYERS. Rose did, however, get cut at the U.S. Open and followed that performance up with a 10-over tournament at Bridgestone. Rose will be looking to right the ship in this tournament and he’ll certainly have enough reasons to do be hungry heading into this one. Rose is an English player, so the British Open is something he has always wanted to win, and he also is in search of his first victory of the year. Rose was once one of the top-five golfers in the world, so he’s worth taking a shot on at 30/1.
Hideki Matsuyama (50/1) - When looking for a dark horse that could pay off in this tournament, it’s tough to avoid putting a half-unit or so on somebody like Matsuyama. Matsuyama has struggled a bit this season, but he is still one of the most promising young golfers on the TOUR. Matsuyama is 17th in the OWGR and while this season hasn’t been as good as last year, it hasn’t been all bad either. Matsuyama won the Phoenix Open in early February and has a total of five top-10 finishes on the season. Two of those happened to have come at The Masters and the PLAYERS as well. He is a big time player and it’s hard to imagine him not finding a way to get things done in this tournament.
2016 British Open at Royal Troon Betting Preview
Matt Fargo
Playbook.com
We hit our third Major of the season with the 145th edition of The Open Championship taking place from Royal Troon located in South Ayrshire, Scotland.
This is the 9th time Royal Troon has hosted The Open Championship which will be tied for seventh most among all venues to host. Established in 1878, Royal Troon is a par 71 that stretches out to 7,190 yards and set against the rugged coastline of the western coast of Scotland.
Weather can play a big role.
The last Open Championship that was contested at Royal Troon was back in 2004 when Todd Hamilton defeated Ernie Els in a playoff. Hamilton became the sixth straight American to win at Royal Troon going back to 1962 - when Arnold Palmer rolled over the field by six strokes.
Since 1998, there have been seven playoffs to determine the winner of The Open Championship including last year when Zach Johnson prevailed over Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen at St. Andrews.
American players had won three straight Majors after Webb Simpson's victory at the 2012 U.S. Open, but the American's went 0-4 in the next four. Since then though, U.S. players have captured seven of the last 12. History could be on their side as since 1995 at St. Andrews, Americans have won 13 of the 21 Open Championships. However, just three of the last nine winners have been Americans, Stewart Cink in 2009, Phil Mickelson in 2013 and Johnson last year.
While the thought is that the Majors are dominated by the world's best players, that has hardly been the case. Of the last 30 Majors, there have been 22 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth being the only two-time or more Major winners over that stretch. We have seen first time Major winners to start 2016 with Danny Willett winning the Masters and Dustin Johnson winning the U.S. Open.
The field is a loaded one as usual - highlighted by World No. 1 Jason Day and now World No. 2 Dustin Johnson. In total, 82 of the top 85 players in the world will be playing this week with Daniel Berger (shoulder), Brooks Koepka (Ankle) and Jaco Van Zyl sitting out. Rory McIlroy is back at The Open Championship after missing last year because of the ankle injury he sustained in a soccer game.
There are four clear cut favorites this week with Jason Day (+770), Dustin Johnson (+805), Rory McIlroy (+940) and Jordan Spieth (+1,055) leading the way. There are just six other players coming in at less than +4,000 with just two being previous Major winners. Adam Scott (+2,150) and Justin Rose (+3,005) are those two and the other four are Sergio Garcia (+2,340), Henrik Stenson (+2,605), Rickie Fowler (+2,735) and Branden Grace (+3,005).