CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The third round of the Champions League group stages is the time when the final form of the eight groups start to take their shape.
At the moment no big team looks in great danger of missing out on a qualification spot for the knockout rounds. Napoli, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Leicester City have all won both their matches so far.
Bayern Munich’s 1-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid meant they were edged out to 7/2 to win the competition, while Diego Simeone’s side are 12/1.
Barcelona remain the 3/1 favourites with Real Madrid 11/2. Man City are 9/1, Juventus 12/1, Borussia Dortmund 18/1, PSG 22/1, Arsenal 25/1 and the remaining teams 33/1 or longer.
The Banker: Both teams to score in Bayer Leverkusen vs. Tottenham Hotspur at 4/6
One of Tuesday night’s most intriguing games comes from the industrial heart of Germany as Bayer Leverkusen play Tottenham Hotspur. After iffy starts both teams desperately need to get the better of the back-to-back games between the sides. Spurs lost to Monaco and beat CSKA Moscow while Bayer Leverkusen drew to both sides.
This means that the onus will be more on Bayer Leverkusen to attack. They have been inconsistent in the league this year, but they have scored 11 goals in 7 games and, in Javier Hernandez, have one of European football’s most potent finishers.
It is not in the make-up of Mauricio Pochettino’s team to go completely defensive - and in any case the rewards of a win in Germany are huge for Spurs. Bayer are dodgy at the back and this game looks bound to see goals. 4/6 on both teams scoring is a good bet.
The Solid Bet: FC Porto to win at Club Brugge at 4/5
In one of the weakest sections the Champions League has seen in years the weakest team is Club Brugge. They were beaten 3-0 by Leicester at home in their first game before an embarrassing 4-0 defeat away to FC Copenhagen. Their poor form has carried over into the league - they lie sixth and prepared for this game badly with a 1-0 defeat away to Charleroi.
FC Porto started this group with a dodgy draw against Copenhagen before losing narrowly to Leicester, but this match at the Jan Breydel Stadium is much easier, and if the group’s other two teams can see them off easily there is no reason why Porto cannot as well. They thrashed Nacional 4-0 in their last league outing and are second in the Portuguese league.
They are a cut above their opponents and should be a safe bet at 4/5.
The Outsider: Legia Warsaw +2.5 away to Real Madrid at 47/20
By far the most eye-catching prices from Tuesday’s eight matches is at the match between Real Madrid and Polish champions Legia Warsaw. Legia, who have lost both their games without scoring (including a 6-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund that was mired by crowd trouble), while Real have won one and drawn one. Legia are 80/1 to win. Yes - eighty to one.
It is a very sad indictment on how polarised European football has become that a team can be available at such a big price to win a game. By way of comparison, Real are rated as more likely to win the match 10-0 - you can bet on that at 66/1.
There is, of course, a vast gulf in class between the two sides. But Legia are no weaker than the worst four or five teams in La Liga, and the occasion of playing away to the biggest club in the world is a bigger motivating factor than it is for another Spanish team. Eibar were 22/1 to win at Real Madrid two weekends ago. They are not four times more likely to win in Madrid than Legia Warsaw. They are a good bet on the handicap, and for them to lose the game by under three goals is a 47/20 shot. It is worth it.
The First Goalscorer: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Borussia Dortmund at Sporting Lisbon at 7/2
Borussia Dortmund may be the best outsider bet for the Champions League this season. After demolishing Legia Warsaw they played excellently in a 2-2 home draw with Borussia Dortmund, and at 6/5 they have more than enough to be able to see off Sporting Lisbon in the Portuguese capital.
Heading their front line is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - a man who, in the last year, has become one of the best strikers in Europe. He has scored eight goals in his last ten games, including one in each Champions League game. Sporting’s defence do not come across players like him very often, and he is a good bet to break the deadlock at 7/2.
CL Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Wednesday night’s Champions League action has a rather one-sided feel to it, with all but two of the matches involving a favourite at a price of 1/2 or shorter. These range from the shortest team of the night - Arsenal at 1/7 against Ludogorets Razgrad - to Barcelona at 1/2 against Manchester City.
On Tuesday, Borussia Dortmund continued their excellent form in this competition with a hard-fought 2-1 away to Sporting Lisbon, making a very interesting fight for top spot with Real Madrid, who thrashed Legia Warsaw.
There were 1-0 wins for Leicester City, Juventus and Sevilla, while both matches in Group A - Bayer Leverkusen vs. Tottenham Hotspur and CSKA Moscow vs. Monaco - ended in draws.
The Banker: Napoli to beat Besiktas at 4/9
Napoli have been very impressive in the Champions League so far, defeating both Dynamo Kiev and Benfica to put them on top of a tight-looking Group B. They welcome Besiktas to the Stadio San Paolo, and given the Neapolitans’ pedigree in this competition and the big difference in quality between the sides, they look a banker to win this match.
The Turkish side have drawn both their matches so far, but were not especially impressive and either, and the trip to Naples is a sterner test than what they have faced so far. Napoli have hit some dodgy form in the league, but until the end of September they had one every match this season, except their opening game against Pescara.
Napoli’s home Champions League record is formidable, and better sides than Besiktas have been soundly beaten there. At 4/9 Napoli are a good bet.
The Solid Bet: Over 2.5 goals in Rostov vs. Atletico Madrid at 11/10
Atletico Madrid’s extraordinary abilty to be able to match Barcelona and Real Madrid - teams of vastly greater financial power than them - has been founded on one of the most solid defences in Europe.
This season though, they have become a fantastic attacking force. Last season they scored 63 goals in 38 league games - a rate of 1.66 per game; this season they have scored 21 in eight league games - 2.63 per game. Last weekend they smashed Granada 7-1 at the Vicente Calderon.
Bookmakers do not seem to have fully caught on to this new Atletico, and a price of 21/20 on their game with Rostov yielding over 2.5 goals is eye-opening. Rostov’s two games so far have seen nine goals, including a 5-0 drubbing by Bayern Munich. They then drew 2-2 with PSV Eindhoven.
The Outsider: Manchester City draw no bet away to Barcelona at 7/2
The prices for Pep Guardiola’s return to Barcelona with Manchester City are a telling sign of the gap between what are probably the best sides in England and Spain. Barça are 1/2 with City available at 11/2. Whatever the result here, expect to see Barcelona go into the return match at the Etihad as strong favourites as well.
But bookmakers may have underestimated City’s chances. Perhaps they have taken an unfortunate league blip - they missed two penalties in their draw with Everton - too much into account.
Their great advantage is that Pep Guardiola knows Barcelona intimately, and as one of the most detailed tactical coaches in the world, he will have prepared City impeccably for this fixture. By and large they have been excellent under Guardiola so far, but given that a draw would be a very good result for City it would be a better idea to back them on the Draw No Bet at 7/2.
The First Goalscorer: Moussa Dembélé for Celtic against Borussia Mönchengladbach at 6/1
One of the shrewdest signings made by anyone in a minor European league this year was Moussa Dembélé - no, not that one - moving from Fulham to Celtic for just £500,000. After netting 15 in his breakthrough season for Fulham, he has scored 12 in 16 games for Celtic.
And before you say ‘well that’s the Scottish league, scoring goals is easy’, bear in mind that he netted two against Manchester City in his team’s 3-3 draw with them in the last round, as well as scoring a hat-trick in Celtic’s derby with Rangers - a 5-1 victory.
He is available at 6/1 to score first as Celtic meat Borussia Mönchengladbach. The two teams’ matches may end up being simply play-offs for third place in the group: the other two teams are Barcelona and Man City - few would be able to catch them.