CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Three rounds into the 2016/17 Champions League group stage three teams have managed to win all their games so far. They are Barcelona, Atletico Madrid - who have won every game 1-0 - and Leicester City.
Groups A to D move into their second halves on Tuesday and in Group A Arsenal and PSG are locked on 7 points. It looks almost certain to be a straight fight between them for top spot. Group B is closer, with Napoli first on six points, followed by Besiktas on five and Benfica on four. Dynamo Kiev are some way back on just one point.
In Group C Barcelona look to be running away with it, with Manchester City one point ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach in second. And Atletico lead Group C with Bayern Munich just behind, though should Bayern defeat Atletico in the return game they would likely win the group.
The Banker: PSG to win at Basel at 3/5
The current trend of European football and the set-up of the Champions League are at their worst when it comes to teams like Basel. They have won eight league titles in the last nine years in Switzerland, but as with every other champion from Europe’s minor leagues, Basel always struggle to make the step up in quality required in the Champions League. They were comfortably dispatched 3-0 by PSG two weeks ago, and there seems little reason why the same won’t happen again.
This is particularly true because the stakes are high for PSG. An unlucky 1-1 draw at home to Arsenal on Matchday 1 means they realistically have to win all their last three games to win the group.
Their form, particularly at the back, is very good and at 3/5 they are a good bet to win in Switzerland.
The Solid Bet: Barcelona to win at Manchester City at 6/4
Barcelona’s 4-0 win over Manchester City at the Nou Camp was a little flattering, but it gave Luis Enrique’s men a pretty much unbridgeable five point cushion at the top of the group. And assuming they manage to beat both Celtic away and Borussia Mönchengladbach at home, there seems no way for City to win the group.
This means that, off the back of a tough set of domestic league and cup fixtures, City’s intensity may not quite be what it was in the opening minutes in Catalonia, when they played well.
When Barça took the lead they then motored into superiority, and they more than justify favouritism tonight. City recovered from a sticky patch of form to win 4-0 at West Brom at the weekend, but Barcelona seem to have them sussed.
They are a solid bet at 6/4.
The Outsider: Besiktas to beat Napoli at 11/4
Besiktas caused one of the biggest shocks - not that that’s saying much - of the Champions League so far by winning 3-2 away to Napoli. A brace by Cameroonian striker Vincent Aboubakar sealed a famous win for the Turkish side and put them right in contention to qualify from Group B.
But with Benfica facing a winnable looking match at home to bottom side Dynamo Kiev, the onus is still on Besiktas to go and attack Napoli and look for back-to-back wins.
Napoli are going steadily in Serie A at two points per game, but they have only won one of their five away games this season, drawing two and losing two. Turkey is famed for being one of the most intimidating countries for teams to visit.
Besiktas could cause another shock here at 11/4.
The First Goalscorer: Olivier Giroud for Arsenal at Ludogorets Razgrad at 7/2
Either side of a disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Middlesbrough, Arsenal have thrashed both Sunderland (4-1) and Tuesday’s opponents Ludogorets Razgrad (6-0). It is unlikely they will let up in Bulgaria as they are in a tight race with PSG to win Group A.
One man who looks set to start for Arsène Wenger’s side is Olivier Giroud. The Frenchman came off the bench to score twice away to Sunderland, and Wenger may use this easy-looking game - his side are 1/3 to win with Ludogorets 17/2 - to rotate his team a bit.
Giroud has his flaws but is easily good enough to unlock the home side’s defence.
CL Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Groups E, F, G and H move play their fourth games on Wednesday, and there is still lots to play for in every section.
This is particularly true of Group A, the tightest in the competition. Monaco are on five points, Tottenham Hotspur are on four, Bayer Leverkusen on three and CSKA Moscow on two. Anyone could still finish anywhere.
Group F looks like being a straight fight between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid for who wins Group B. Both are on seven points. Sporting Lisbon look likely to get the Europa League spot ahead of Legia Warsaw.
Leicester have surely sewn up Group G with FC Porto and FC Copenhagen fighting it out for second. And Group H is an identical scenario to Group B: Juventus and Sevilla are locked on seven points with Lyon set to finish above Dinamo Zagreb in third.
The Banker: Sevilla -1.5 against Dinamo Zagreb at 13/20
Dinamo Zagreb have been Croatian champions every year since 2005, but their Champions League record, bar a home win against Arsenal last year, is woeful. They lost five of their six group games in 2015/16 and have already lost all three this year, scoring none and conceding eight. So they go to Seville with little hope of getting a result. They are 14/1 to win, 6/1 to draw and 2/9 to lose.
Sevilla’s new manager this season is Jorge Sampaoli, the man who led Chile to back-to-back Copa America wins. His side are excellent going forward and have a huge number of people who can score goals. While this has not yet been reflected in their Champions League form - the only won 1-0 in Zagreb - this match looks like a good opportunity for them to score a few goals.
At 13/20 to win by more than one goal they are a good bet.
The Solid Bet: FC Copenhagen to draw with Leicester City at 23/10
Leicester have won all three of their Champions League games this season without conceding, putting them in a commanding position at the top of their group. But the FC Copenhagen side they meet on Wednesday are excellent at home, and it may take some of the old title-winning spirit from last season for Leicester to get a good result here.
With both Copenhagen and Porto five points behind them, a draw would be a good result here for Leicester. They looked much more solid defensively away to Spurs in a 1-1 draw at the weekend - their first away points of the domestic season.
Copenhagen have won six and drawn one of their home league games this season, and this combined with Leicester’s dodgy start to the season means they go in as favourites, but Leicester are still a much better side and should be able to come out with a draw.
The Outsider: Bayer Leverkusen to win at Tottenham Hotspur at 3/1
Spurs were indebted to a wondersave by Hugo Lloris from Javier Hernandez for their point away to Bayer Leverkusen two weeks ago, and in a tight group there is still no guarantee that Mauricio Pochettino’s men will come through.
Bayer won 2-1 away to Wolfsburg at the weekend, and they look good value to gain an even more important win on the road in London. The game is taking place at Wembley in preparation for next season when Spurs will temporarily move into the national stadium while their new ground is built. The last game they played there was a very disappointing defeat to Monaco in matchday one. It was clear that night that Spurs’s ‘home advantage’ had been severely diminished.
They have run into some difficult form in the league, and the last thing they need is a tough, crucial Champions League game. At 3/1 Bayer Leverkusen are good value.
The First Goalscorer: Andre Silva for FC Porto against Club Brugge at 7/2
FC Porto are locked in a fight with FC Copenhagen to qualify from Group G, and the men from Portugal will look at their home game against Club Brugge as a must-win. They are 3/10 to do so, with a draw 19/4 and a Brugge win 11/1.
It took a last minute penalty for Porto to win 2-1 in Belgium, and the man who took that penalty, Andre Silva, is one of European football’s best young talents. The 20 year-old is on a stunning run of form, having scored 15 goals in his last 15 games. At 7/2 he still looks a very big price to open the scoring against Brugge.