CL - Quarterfinals Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
As the early odds for the Champions League winner indicated, there is clearly a top 3 in Europe this season. First in the market come Bayern Munich at 7/4. The Germans are, as usual, top of the Bundesliga and were backed into favouritism after demolishing Shakhtar Donetsk 7-0 in their last 16 second leg. Next come La Liga leaders Barcelona. The Catalan side have edged ahead of Real Madrid in the betting after a wonderful last few months. Holders Real Madrid have to 4/1 after a needlessly nervy qualification against Schalke 04.
Of the rest, Juventus’s tie with Monaco means they are 7/1. Atletico Madrid look appealingly priced at 16/1 having come within a minute of winning the competition last year. PSG are also 16/1, while the rank outsiders are Monaco and FC Porto at 66/1.
Let's handicap the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Bayern Munich to win at FC Porto at 4/5
Bayern Munich are a miles better team than FC Porto and look an appealing bet to win in the Estadio Dragão. Porto are always a competitive outfit in the Champions League, but the quality of the Portuguese league means they often come up short against the very best. They lie second in their domestic league and, while they were impressive in a 4-0 defeat of Basel, the chances of Bayern putting the tie to bed by the half-way mark are better than the odds of 4/5 suggest. They have won their last six away games in all competitions, conceding just once in the process and scoring 14.
The Solid Bet: Juventus to win to nil vs Monaco at 20/21
Monaco, who miraculously won their Champions League group despite scoring just four goals in six games, managed to score three away from home to Arsenal in the last 16. Juventus, however, will not make the same naive errors Arsène Wenger’s side did that night in North London. Juventus have one of the best defences in Europe. They have conceded just 15 goals in 30 league games this season and put on a real show of strength by beating much-fancied Borussia Dortmund 5-1 on aggregate in the last 16.
After years of underachieving in Europe, this Juventus team now looks the real deal. They could not have been happier with their draw for the quarter-finals: Monaco are still unsure of Champions League qualification for next season and were quite lucky to get to this stage. They have scored just 39 in 32 in the league this season and look unlikely to trouble Juve’s sturdy defence. Juventus to win to nil at 20/21 looks a sound price.
The Outsider: Atletico Madrid to beat Real Madrid at 15/8
Head-to-head records are largely overrated for their importance, but there is a difference in derby matches - and Atletico vs Real is certainly a derby. And Atletico, despite having a budget that is minuscule compared with their neighbours, have the upper hand. Atletico have won four of the six matches between the sides this year, drawing the other two. All three matches at the Estadio Vicente Calderon have resulted in Atletico wins. And while it is important to bear in mind that, yes, Real remain a stronger side than Atletico, that is more than factored into the 15/8 available on the hosts.
Real Madrid have had big problems this year in their tough matches. Their six league defeats have come against Barcelona, Atletico twice, Athletic Bilbao, Valencia and Real Sociedad - all strong teams. The Champions League in recent years has been a celebration of collective teamwork rather than individual talent. On teamwork, Atletico are miles ahead of Real and this makes them worth a punt at 15/8.
The First Goalscorer: Luis Suarez for Barcelona at PSG at 5/1
PSG v Barcelona is arguably the most interesting of the quarter-final ties. The Parisians were hugely impressive with ten men as they dumped Chelsea out in the last round, but Barcelona’s stupendous form means they go into this match away from home as 5/6 favourites. PSG are 15/4 with the draw at 11/4. Laurent Blanc’s side ran Barcelona very close in a knockout tie last season, but Barcelona just look unstoppable at the moment, and even a price like 15/4 seems short.
Luis Suarez looks a good bet to break the deadlock at 5/1. After a difficult settling-in spell in Catalonia he has come into his own in recent weeks, scoring nine goals in his last ten games. Suarez is a scorer of big goals - and the opener here would certainly count as one of them.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Odds and Pick
By Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
There was a great deal of bravado on both sides when these two local rivals were drawn against each other in the Champions League quarterfinals, with Real Madrid fans reminding everyone about last season's final in Lisbon, and Atletico fans reminding everyone about their record over Madrid during the current campaign.
Secretly, however, neither club would have been particularly happy to have drawn their nearest opponent, and the seventh and eighth Madrid derbies of the season should be once more intriguing.
Of course, it has been Los Rojiblancos who have come out on top recently, unbeaten in their six meetings with Real this term, with two draws and four wins, the most recent of which was the memorable 4-0 league thrashing of Madrid at the Calderon back in February.
And yet Diego Simeone's men remain the underdogs for this tie, with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook offering them at +180 to win Tuesday’s match at home (2:45 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1).
Madrid is available at odds of +160 to claim a win at the Calderon, with the draw priced at +225.
After a pretty serious wobble last month, Carlo Ancelotti's men seem to have regained their momentum, and three wins in a week with 15 goals scored and just one conceded show they have been finding their rhythm.
Those wins of course have come against Granada, Rayo and Eibar, and while the game against Atletico will naturally be a tougher affair, the results will certainly give Madrid a boost and a modicum of confidence, something they will need when playing a side they have failed to get the better of in six games this season.
Atletico have been missing striker Mario Mandzukic, who has been suffering from an ankle injury, but the Croatian has been passed fit for the game against Madrid meaning he is likely to start up front in place of Fernando Torres.
Tactically, there will be few surprises on either side. These two teams know each other so well that they should be pretty conscious of what to expect from the game. Bettors, too, should be aware that this will not likely be a particularly attractive or open game, but despite that, the offshore price of -120 for both teams to score is hard to discount.
Madrid is all too aware of the importance of an away goal, and with James Rodriguez back, there is greater fluidity about them in the final third.
Atletico almost always scores at home regardless of the opponent, and with the 'both teams to score' prop paying out in five of the last eight Madrid derbies, there is every chance for it to do so again on Tuesday.
The total at the Westgate is 2.5 goals, with OVER offered +115
Goal.com best bet: Both teams to score at -120