CL Best Bets - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The knockout stages of the Champions League kick off on Tuesday, and this is where the tournament gets exciting. This year’s group stage saw very few shocks - the only fancied team to go out early was Tottenham Hotspur. But there were some surprise group winners, with Bayern Munich, PSG and Real Madrid all failing to come top of their section.
The upshot of all this is that Barcelona, despite sitting second in La Liga and having been given a tough tie against PSG, remain the favourites to win the competition at 10/3. Next up are Bayern Munich at 4/1, while 9/2 shots Real Madrid look the best value of the ‘big three’.
But my favourite bet in this market comes way down the market with Sevilla at 33/1. They have been heavily backed in from 40/1 when their draw for the last 16 was made. But they have improved enormously under Jorge Sampaoli this year and have scored some big results against Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Tuesday, Feb. 14
Benfica vs. Borussia Dortmund
Benfica managed to navigate a tough, tight Champions League group involving Napoli, Besiktas, and Dynamo Kiev, but they are outsiders against Borussia Dortmund in the last 16. They are 11/4 to qualify with Dortmund 1/4.
Things have been going very well for Benfica in the Portuguese league, however. They are top of the league on the back of near-impeccable home form, having won nine and drawn two in the league at the Estadio da Luz this season.
Dortmund come into this game after a difficult couple of games. Their 1-0 win over Red Bull Leipzig was a great confidence boost, but the match was marred by crowd trouble. They then lost 2-1 away to minnows Darmstadt.
It simply is not in Dortmund’s nature to play defensively in a European away game, but their defence is far from steady, and it may well pay to back goals in this game. Benfica probably do not have the quality to outplay Dortmund, but could exploud Thomas Tüchel’s side’s defensive frailties.
Prediction: 2-2 +1200
Best Bet: Both teams to score -143
PSG vs. Barcelona
Paris Saint-Germain are having a much harder time of it than usual this season. Having sold their long-term talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Manchester United, the capital city club lie second in Ligue 1, behind a highly impressive Monaco side.
But even so, they look slightly underrated at home to Barcelona. They are 5/2 to win the match, with the draw identically priced and Luis Enrique’s side 6/5 favourites.
PSG have an almost full-strength squad, with only Thiago Motta out through injury, and their form in 2017 suggests that they can overhaul Monaco’s three point lead, as well as making a splash in Europe. They have won nine and drawn one of their games this calendar year, with a huge upsurge in performance.
It is, of course, Barcelona - and their form (won eight, drawn one) has not been much worse.
Prediction: 1-1 +550
Best Bet: Draw +250
Wednesday, Feb. 15
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal
One of the most interesting last 16 ties sees Bayern Munich meet Arsenal. This is one of Arsenal’s most important games in years. Their title hopes are already over. Arsène Wenger is under even greater pressure than usual. And their fans feel it is about time that they put one over one of Europe’s elite teams. No more heroic defeats.
They go into the first leg at the Allianz Arena as big outsiders. Bayern are 1/2 to claim a first leg victory, with Arsenal available at 13/2 and a draw 7/2. Arsenal are 9/4 to qualify with Bayern 1/3.
Arsenal are in the unfamiliar territory of playing the first leg away from home, and predicting how they react to this is key to calling this game. Their last two big away matches may hold the key. They were outplayed by Chelsea in a 3-1 defeat two weeks ago and also suffered a second half capitulation agianst Manchester City, losing 2-1. However in both those games, the Gunners showed that they carry a threat going forward. They are a side who get goals from most positions, and Bayern Munich are not the most solid defence in Europe.
But Carlo Ancelotti’s side should still have the quality to get the better of a mentally bruised Arsenal side.
Prediction: 3-1 to Bayern Munich +1000
Best Bet: Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score +187
Real Madrid vs. Napoli
This tie looks like a mouthwatering affair. Real Madrid are top of La Liga having lost only once all season. They are a point clear of Barcelona, but crucially they have two games in hand.
They go up against a Napoli side whose front four have really caught the eye in recent weeks. They won 7-1 away to Bologna, with both Marek Hamsik and Dries Mertens scoring hat-tricks, before a routine 2-0 win at home to Genoa.
It is very hard to look past Real Madrid in any tie at the moment, but Napoli really are an exciting side, and with the second leg to come at the intimidating Stadio San Paolo, the 5/2 about the Italians qualifying holds some appeal. They are 5/1 to win this match, with Real Madrid 4/7 and a draw 7/2.
The best way to go here might be to play it safe and back both teams to score. Real Madrid’s focus is always purely to outscore their opponents, while Napoli know that an away goal could prove crucial.
Prediction: 2-1 to Real Madrid +700
Best Bet: Both teams to score -188