CL Best Bets - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Two of this week’s four Champions League games were effectively decided after the first leg, as Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain scored hugely impressive four-goal victories over Barcelona and Arsenal respectively. Barcelona are surprinsingly short at 10/1 to qualify, with Arsenal all the way out at 25/1.
Bayern are now the favourites for the competition at 11/4, with Real Madrid second at 4/1. The big movers in the market were PSG, who are now third at 7/1. Next come Juventus at an interesting-looking 13/2, followed by Atletico Madrid at 8/1, Manchester City at 10/1, Borussia Dortmund at 16/1 and Sevilla at 28/1. The rank outsiders are 500/1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich
What promised to be a huge night for Arsenal is now almost certain to be a damp squid. Empty seats will abound at the Emirates Stadium with many Arsenal fans understandably thinking that there is no chance whatsoever that they can overturn Bayern’s four-goal advantage from the first leg.
And yet, even with the pressure seemingly off, this is a nightmare scenario for Arsenal. They will still feel that they have to turn up and put in an acceptable performance: an aggregate defeat of 8-1 or 9-1 would be incredibly embarrassing for Arsène Wenger’s beleaguered side.
Morale at Arsenal is extremely low, particularly with the revelations about a bust-up between the manager and the star player, Alexis Sanchez. Motivating the team will be a difficult task for Wenger on Tuesday night, and Bayern are not the sort of side to take any mercy on their opponents.
The gulf in class between the two sides was evident in the first leg, and this match could turn very ugly for the Gunners.
Prediction: Bayern Munich to win at 6/5
Correct score: Arsenal 0-3 Bayern Munich at 20/1
Napoli vs. Real Madrid
One of the most impressive performances in the first leg of the round of 16 came from Real Madrid. They went behind early to Napoli, but came back to score an excellent 3-1 win. They are 1/8 to qualify, with Napoli available at 5/1.
This tie is not over. In an age of bland, identikit stadia, the Stadio San Paolo in Napoli remains one of Europe’s genuinely hostile destinations for away teams. And Napoli are a thoroughly dangerous side. Their front three of Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne, Jose Callejon, as well as Marek Hamsik in midfield, has meant that they are Serie A’s top scorers this year, going at a rate of more than two goals a game in one of Europe’s best defensive leagues.
Real Madrid probably have too much quality to let this one slip, but Napoli look underrated in the market and are well worth a bet.
Prediction: Napoli to win at 9/5
Correct score: Napoli 2-1 Real Madrid at 10/1
Wednesday, Mar. 8
Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Barcelona have suffered quite a few defeats in the Champions League in recent years. But, other than their semi-final defeat to Bayern Munich in 2013, no team has outplayed them quite like PSG in their 4-0 win at the Parc des Princes three weeks ago. Barcelona’s fabled front three hardly got a kick as the Parisians bossed the shot count. They fully deserved their victory.
And given how easily PSG won that match, it is simply inexplicable to me that Barcelona can be 9/20 to win this match. Even if we did not now know that PSG are capable of taking Barça apart, this price would be eye-opening.
Barcelona are unlikely to face this match with as much fatalism as Arsenal, who were big outsiders before the first leg anyway, but it is still unprecendented to come back from a 4-0 defeat in the Champions League: if PSG score first, Barcelona need six. PSG’s defence looked capable of dealing with Barcelona’s threat reasonably well, and they can come through this second leg easily.
Prediction: Draw at 17/4
Correct score: 1-1 at 9/1
Borussia Dortmund vs. Benfica
One of the big shocks of the first round of knockout matches saw Benfica defeat a highly-fancied Borussia Dortmund side 1-0 at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. Kostas Mitroglou’s goal shortly after half-time settled matters. But the scoreline does not always tell the whole story. Any neutral observer of the game would tell you that Benfica were highly fortunate to win. They scored with their only shot on target, while Dortmund spurned 14 shots, including a missed penalty by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. They had 31% of possession to Dortmund’s 69: it was clear who the better team were.
So it would be a good idea to keep the faith with Dortmund here and back them to overturn the deficit. They are still narrow favourites to win the tie at 8/11, with Benfica at 11/10. A Benfica goal would mean that Dortmund need three to qualify, but they have notched up 12 goals in their last three Bundesliga games, including a 6-2 win over Bayer Leverkusen, so they are more than capable of this.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to qualify at 8/11
Correct score: Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Benfica at 18/1