CL Best Bets - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Barcelona’s unbelievable turnaround to knock Paris Saint-Germain out of the Champions League has completely reshaped the market on who is going to win this year’s Champions League.
At one point, the Catalans were 200/1 just to qualify; now they are the 11/4 favourites, although bookmakers may be slightly overreacting to their comeback, which was helped by severe incompetence from PSG.
The more attractive bet is surely Bayern Munich at 16/5, who recorded a crushing 10-2 aggregate victory over Arsenal. Real Madrid also negotiated a tricky tie with Napoli. They are available at 5/1 - a decent looking price given that they won 3-1 away to Napoli, one of Europe’s toughest destinations.
Tuesday, Mar. 14
Juventus vs. FC Porto
The first match from the last round of last 16 qualifiers looks like being one of the more predictable. Juventus put in a typically professional performance to win 2-0 at the Estadio Dragão, and bookmakers give Porto just a 16/1 chance of overturning the deficit.
In the three domestic games since that victory, Juventus have picked up three wins and a draw, putting them well clear of AS Roma at the top of Serie A. But Porto are on excellent form too: in their last three league games they have scored 12 goals without reply, leaving them top of the table.
Juventus are a ruthless side, and I can see them killing this off relatively early. Massimiliano Allegri’s side are experts at scoring just when they need to, and an early goal would knock any confidence out of Porto. Juve should win to nil.
Best Bet: Juventus to win to nil at 8/5
Correct score: Juventus 2-0 FC Porto at 6/1
Leicester City vs. Sevilla
It seems a long time ago now, but Sevilla’s 2-1 win over Leicester in the first leg in Spain was Claudio Ranieri’s last match in charge of Leicester. Many pundits were confused by the timing of his sacking. A 2-1 defeat away to Sevilla was, on paper, a fairly decent result for the Premier League champions. Surely Ranieri deserved the chance to have a go at the second leg?
But anyone who watched that first leg would know that Sevilla were very hard done by only to win by a one-goal margin. The first 70 minutes of the match was constant Sevilla pressure, and Leicester looked hopelessly disorganised for large periods.
They have had a helpful bump under caretaker manager Craig Shakespeare: wins against Liverpool and Hull City have eased very real relegation fears. But Sevilla might be the most improved team in Europe this year and are far, far better than Leicester. At odds-against, they are worth a sizeable bet.
Best Bet: Sevilla to win at 5/4
Correct score: Leicester City 0-3 Sevilla at 20/1
Wednesday, Mar. 15
Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Along with Porto, Bayer Leverkusen look to have the hardest task facing them in their second leg ties this week. Both are rank outsiders to win the Champions League at 500/1.
And rightly so. Atletico win 4-2 in Germany, meaning that, realistically, Bayer have to win by three goals at the Vicente Calderon to go through. Atletico’s home record in the Champions League is formidable. Since 2013/14 they have won 16, drawn three and lost just once - and that despite hosting Bayern twice and Barcelona. And although they have looked a little bit more defensively vulnerable recently, it would still be monumentally difficult for Bayer to overturn this lead.
However they are bound to go for it - and Atletico have kept just two clean sheets in their last eight games, and Bayer were on the wrong end of a 6-2 defeat to Borussia Dortmund just over a week ago. Both teams to score looks the way to go.
Best Bet: Both teams to score at 3/4
Correct score: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen at 7/1
AS Monaco vs. Manchester City
The most appealing second leg this week comes from Europe’s second smallest country as Monaco host Manchester City, hoping to overturn a two-goal deficit. The first leg between these sides was one of the most entertaining matches of the last few years. City eventually ran out 5-3 winners, but Monaco could feel very hard done by. They ripped apart City’s defence for most of the first three quarters of the match, and missed a penalty to go 3-1 up, before folding rather pathetically in the last 15 minutes.
Still, their performance was good enough to justify their relatively long odds, and bookmakers have clearly been shaken by that match. Monaco are only narrow outsiders to win this match at 8/5, with City 29/10.
At the price, I’d have to go with Monaco. City have shown some good form recently, and look well placed to mount a more impressive title challenge next year. But Monaco bamboozled City for large periods in Manchester, and they have nothing to lose.
Best Bet: Monaco to win at 8/5
Correct score: Monaco 3-2 Manchester City at 18/1