CL Best Bets - Quarters
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The last 16 of this year’s Champions League was one of the most memorable rounds of games in the tournament’s history. We saw Leicester City, then mired in a relegation battle in the Premier League, knock out a highly-fancied Sevilla side.
We saw Bayern Munich hit ten past Arsenal. Manchester City and Monaco shared twelve goals in two games. Oh, and we also had one of the greatest games of all time: Barcelona’s impossible comeback against PSG to overturn a 4-0 first-leg deficit.
Having been 200/1 just to qualify at one point, Barcelona are now the 3/1 joint favourites to win the tournament with Bayern Munich. Next come 11/2 shots Real Madrid, with city rivals Atletico next at 6/1. Juventus are available at 9/1, Borussia Dortmund 10/1, with Monaco at 20/1 and Leicester at 40/1.
Tuesday, Apr. 11
Borussia Dortmund vs. Monaco
Two of Europe’s most exciting attacking sides meet up on Tuesday night in a contest that has the mouths of the more discerning European football fan watering. Borussia Dortmund smashed Benfica 4-0 in the second leg at Signal Iduna Park, and despite Monaco’s impressive showing against Manchester City, they are once again significant underdogs.
This game promises goals. Lots of them. Sadly, bookmakers seem to agree, and over 2.5 goals is an incredibly short 2/5 with over 3.5 an evens shot - an almost unheard-of price for a game between two relatively even sides.
These prices seem like a trap, despite the form of both sides. It would be wise for bookmakers to remember that first legs in the Champions League are generally cagey affairs. Monaco have been a bit quieter going forward of late, winning their last matches 2-1 and 1-0. And Dortmund must be wary of giving Monaco too many chances of getting an away goal.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 15/8
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Monaco at 8/1
Juventus vs. Barcelona
Sergi Roberto’s 95th minute winner to put PSG out was one of the most magical moments in European football history, capping a comeback that involved three goals in the last eight minutes of the match.
But the hype around Barcelona’s performance may have played into the prices too much. Remember, they did lose the first leg 4-0 - and played terribly. At the Nou Camp, they relied on two penalties and a comedy own goal, though nothing can take away from the spirit required to come back from a 4-0 defeat.
But Juventus are a much more mature side than PSG, and are a far from ideal opponent for Barcelona. The Old Lady are marching towards yet another Serie A title, and incredibly they have won every home game this year. They look a good bet here.
Best Bet: Juventus to win at 13/8
Prediction: Juventus 2-0 Barcelona at 11/1
Wednesday, Apr. 12
Atletico Madrid vs. Leicester City
It is rare to see a side as big as 12/1 to win a Champions League quarter-final - but there are few teams less likely to see at this stage than plucky Leicester City, the English champions for a few more weeks.
Their form under Craig Shakespeare has seen them transform from downtrodden relegation candidates to the Leicester of last year (although they did lose 4-2 at Everton at the weekend, albeit with a weakened side).
Some have said that Atletico would have wanted to avoid Leicester City due to their preference for playing teams against whom they can easily counter-attack. This is nonsense of course - Leicester present a far easier challenge to Atletico than, say, Bayern Munich - but do not expect Diego Simeone’s side to coast through this tie. As ever, their main aim at the Vicente Calderon will be to keep a clean sheet.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1/1
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Leicester City at 9/2
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid
The highest profile tie of the round sees two teams with 16 Champions League trophies between them face off, starting with the first leg in Munich at the Allianz Arena.
Bayern Munich recorded a stunning 10-2 aggregate win over Arsenal in the last 16, winning both games 5-1. However the scoreline probably said more about Arsenal’s woefulness than this being a particularly brilliant Bayern side, as well as the fact that all five of Bayern’s second leg goals came after Arsenal had been reduced to ten men.
In a way, Real Madrid’s slightly more modest 6-2 aggregate win over Napoli was even more impressive. Napoli have been playing some superb football in Serie A this year, and Real showed great spirit to come back from 1-0 down in both legs. They look on course to win La Liga this year, and are every bit as good as Barcelona. This is not reflected in the prices, neither for this tie nor for the tournament as a whole.
Best Bet: Real Madrid to win at 7/2
Prediction: Bayern Munich 1-2 Real Madrid at 14/1