CL Best Bets - Quarterfinals
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
There are now just nine matches left until we discover who the winners of the 2016/17 Champions League will be. And after the four first-legs of the quarter-finals last week, the tournament winner betting has shifted dramatically.
Real Madrid are the new favourites at 2/1 following their 2-1 win away to Bayern Munich. Next come Juventus, the week’s big movers, who beat a bedraggled Barcelona 3-0. Then it’s Atletico Madrid at 9/2, Monaco 9/1, followed by the first-leg losers Bayern Munich 11/1, Barcelona 16/1, Borussia Dortmund 25/1 and Leicester City 40/1.
Tuesday, Apr. 18
Leicester City vs. Atletico Madrid
Leicester City’s Champions League run has been a fitting follow-on from their unlikely Premier League title triumph last year, but it will probably all end on Tuesday as they welcome Atletico Madrid to the East Midlands hoping to overturn a 1-0 first-leg deficit. It was an odd match: Atletico were dominant enough that the scoreline probably flattered Leicester, but Atletico’s goal came from a penalty that should have been given as a free-kick, while Leicester themselves were denied a blatant spot-kick.
Leicester will know that they cannot be too aggressive given that an away goal would probably end their hopes: they would have to concede three times against one of Europe’s meanest defences. And this means that Atletico may be slightly bolder than usual. It is Leicester, after all, not Bayern Munich.
Antoine Griezmann is likely to make a big impact. He was rested at the weekend and will be fresh to attack a competent, but slow Leicester defence. At 7/2 he is a good bet to score first.
Best Bet: Antoine Griezmann to score first at 7/2
Prediction: Leicester City 1-2 Atletico Madrid at 8/1
Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
A twelfth European Cup victory is on the cards for Real Madrid as their 2-1 win at Bayern Munich made them favourites for this year’s competition. Although they were slightly fortunate that Arturo Vidal missed a penalty, Real were well worth their win in Germany, dominating the shots count and forcing a world class performance out of Manuel Neuer.
Their two away goals mean Bayern must really go for this, and it could end up being one of the most open games between two heavyweights in a long time. Real are perfectly happy to counter-attack. Expectations of a goalfest are heightened because of the dodgy state of both sides’ defences.
Bayern have Robert Lewandowski back in attack, which will be a major boost for Carlo Ancelotti as he returns to his old club. But I’m happy to take Real Madrid at 7/5 in the hope that they can pillage two or three goals on the break.
Best Bet: Real Madrid to win at 7/5
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Bayern Munich at 16/1
Wednesday, Apr. 19
Barcelona vs. Juventus
They can’t do it again, can they?
Almost certainly not. Although Barcelona have one less goal to make up on Juventus compared to their first leg deficit against Paris Saint-Germain, the task facing them is quite different.
The first leg, a 3-0 win for Juventus, followed a similar pattern to the PSG game, where Barcelona frankly looked incompetent. Juventus were good but did not have to be at their very best to come away with a comfortable win.
But while PSG are a flawed team with a history of bottling it in the latter stages in Europe, Juventus are serial winners with the best defence in the world, as well as one of football’s foremost tacticians in Massimiliano Allegri. It really does seem inconceivable that their team could concede three or four goals in a match, and a price of 5/1 on Barcelona to qualify seems far too short.
Best Bet: Draw at 15/4
Prediction: Barcelona 1-1 Juventus at 8/1
Monaco vs. Borussia Dortmund
Monaco took control of their tie with Borussia Dortmund after a deserved 3-2 victory in Germany, although the match will forever be remembered by the bombing of the Dortmund team bus that caused the game to be rearranged. It is both likely and understandable that home side were highly affected by the event.
Still, the match fulfilled most expectations: it was a full-throttle, open, end-to-end affair between two of the most exciting attacking teams in Europe. Another goal-fest is expected in Monaco with over 2.5 goals as short as 4/11.
Picking from a minefield of big-priced correct scores (4-2, 3-2, 3-3) seems like a sure-fire way of losing money, so a good angle here might be getting on Kylian Mbappé, one of the world’s hottest prospects at just 18 years-old, to get on the scoresheet first. He stole the show in Germany with a brace, and has a knack of getting in good goalscoring positions, as well as possessing immense calmness in front of goal.
Best Bet: Kylian Mbappe to score first at 6/1
Prediction: Monaco 2-2 Borussia Dortmund at 9/1