CL Best Bets - Semifinals
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The semifinals of the Champions League tend to throw up some of the best matches in the annual football calendar. While finals can often feel cagey, with both sides setting up not to lose rather than actievly seeking a win, semifinals are filled with drama. And this year’s pair of ties throws up two intruguing matchups.
First there is Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid - a repeat of both the 2014 and 2016 finals, which Real Madrid won narrowly. Second there is Monaco vs. Juventus - a matchup between Europe’s most exciting attack and its meanest defence.
Real Madrid and Juventus are the favourites to win the trophy. For Real, it would be their 12th Champions League triumph. Both sides are priced up at 13/8. Juventus have been the year’s biggest market movers: their comfortable dispatching of Barcelona was a huge contrast to PSG’s concession of a four-goal advantage in the last 16.
Next come Atletico Madrid at 4/1, while Monaco are an extremely appealing 8/1 after their wins over Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund.
Tuesday, May 2
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
The first of this year’s semifinals is between two teams who know each other very well: Real Madrid, the Spanish capital’s establishment club, and arguably the world’s foremost football superpower, take on their more modest, working-class neighbours, who have risen to the top on the back of guts and hard work.
It has not been such a vintage year for Atletico Madrid in the league, but they are knockout football experts, and Zinedine Zidane’s team will know that they are in for a tough couple of matches. However given Real’s undoubtedly superior quality, it is hard to argue that they do not deserve to be 4/7 favourites; Atletico are 11/8.
Real Madrid games generally involve lots of goals. They have scored in their last 35 Champions League home matches and have kept just three clean sheets in their last 25 matches in all competitions. But then you have Atletico, who are unbeaten in 15 away matches (all competitions) and held their city rivals at the Bernabéu just last month.
Real are the 4/5 favourites for this match, with Atletico 17/4, and the team news certainly favours Real. Although they will have to do without Gareth Bale, they have an able replacement in the in-form Isco, while James Rodriguez may also play. Atletico’s defence needs some patching up, with Jose Gimenez, Sime Vrsaljko and Juanfran all out.
But in any game involving Atletico, it is worth trusting them to avoid a thrashing. Their Champions League campaign has been defined by a typical minimalism.
They have scored just 13 in their 10 games on the way to the semis. Unders looks the way to go here.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11
Prediction: Real Madrid 1-0 Atletico Madrid at 11/2
Wednesday, May 3
Monaco vs. Juventus
This looks set to be one of the most fascinating knockout games in recent times in the Champions League. For one thing, Monaco and Juventus have not met in modern Champions League history, so there is no form to go on. Second, both teams have overperformed their ante-post odds more than any other in this season’s competition.
Monaco’s two knockout victories have come against Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund. Both are good sides who pose a variety of threats going forward, but they have two of the most disorganised defences in elite European football. That is why this match is so fascinating, because Juventus are objectively the best defensive club side in the world.
Who else could keep Messi, Suarez and Neymar at bay over 180 minutes of football?
The prospect of seeing Monaco’s scintillating attacking machine come up against this most formidable foe is mouthwatering - and despite everything we know about Juventus, the Ligue 1 side seem underrated. They are liable to be thrashed - the 5-0 defeat to PSG in the final of the Coupe de France showed that Leonardo Jardim’s side are far from perfect - but the slickness of their attack means that Juventus will have to be extra competent on Wednesday night.
Both sides go into this match with almost completely fit squads, and it should be quite a game.
Best Bet: Monaco to win at 2/1
Prediction: Monaco 2-1 Juventus at 10/1