CL Best Bets - Semifinals
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
A double on Juventus and Real Madrid both to qualify for the final is available at odds of 1/20 after both sides took huge strides towards Cardiff with wins in their first legs.
Real Madrid put in a superb, balanced performance enabling Cristiano Ronaldo to score a hat-trick as they beat city rivals Atletico 3-0 at home.
Juventus weathered an early Monaco storm before a wonderful team goal finished off by Gonzalo Higuain gave them the lead. Higuain then doubled Juve’s advantage halfway through the second half.
Champions League semifinals usually produce four of the tightest, most exciting games this season, but barring a miracle, this year’s games look to have been settled in the first leg.
Real Madrid are 5/6 favourites to win the trophy with Juventus at 11/10. Monaco and Atletico are 50/1.
Tuesday, May 9
Juventus vs. Monaco
Juventus’s 2-0 win at the Stade Louis II was a performance of supreme maturity. It contrasted heavily with Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City, whom Monaco had defeated on the way to their first Champions League semifinal since 2004. Both of those sides played straight into Monaco’s hands, going all-out-attack and leaving themselves open to Monaco’s razor-sharp counter-attacks.
But Juventus are one of Europe’s savviest teams, and it really is inconceivable that this Monaco side, as good as they are, can overturn a 2-0 deficit away to Juventus, who have won 17 of their 18 home league games this year.
It is unsurprising, therefore, that Juventus are heavy favourites to win this match. They are 8/13, while Monaco are 5/1 shots. If you want a speculative punt on Monaco qualifying it is available at 20/1.
But perhaps the better bet might be to back a low-scoring game. Juventus masterfully tamed Monaco, especially in the second half when the home side seemed to run out of ideas. There is no incentive for Juventus to chase goals, and they are experts at defending a lead.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1/1
Correct score: Juventus 1-0 Monaco at 13/2
Wednesday, May 10
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid
It looks like Real Madrid will once again prove to be Atletico Madrid’s nemesis in the Champions League. After edging two finals in three years against their cross-city rivals, Real added on the pain for Atletico by beating them 3-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu. It was a deserved victory, and Real Madrid will now fancy their chances of winning a twelfth Champions League.
But Atletico Madrid’s home Champions League record cannot be underestimated. Since 2013-14 they have won 17, drawn 3 and lost 1 game in this competition. They have conceded an astonishingly miserly five goals in that time. They are yet to concede in five home games against Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real in that period and they won four of these games either 1-0 or 2-0.
Things may look desperate for Atletico - they are 33/1 to qualify - but they may be value to win this game. It is relatively common in the Champions League that big first leg advantages get cut in the second leg. With goals generally at a premium when Atletico Madrid play at home, draw no bet (money back if it is a draw) may be the best way to go.
Best Bet: Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet at 1/1
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid at 9/1