CL - Quarterfinals Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The biggest story to come out of the first leg of Champions League quarter-finals was FC Porto’s stunning 3-1 victory over Bayern Munich. It could have been more, in fact, had Manuel Neuer been sent off early on, which he should have been. This defeat pushed Bayern out to 4/1 to win the Champions League, though such is the confidence in the Germans that Porto are only narrow 5/6 favourites to qualify.
Otherwise, Barcelona showed why they deserve to be 11/8 favourites. Inspired by Luis Suarez, they dismantled Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 at the Parc des Princes, leaving the second leg looking like a formality. Real Madrid escaped from their frequent graveyard, the Vicente Calderon, with a 0-0 draw at Atletico, while Juventus defeated Monaco 1-0.
Let's handicap the second leg of UEFA Champions League quarterfinals.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Under 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid at 4/5
The most interesting second leg looks set to come from the Santiago Bernabeu as Real and Atletico meet for the twelfth time in just a year and a half. Real Madrid were quite unlucky not to win their away leg. They dominated the first half but were unable to break their rivals down. Atletico then rallied after the break leaving the tie delicately poised.
The fact remains, however, that Atletico are better suited than almost anybody else to make life hard for Real. Only once in those twelve games have Atletico conceded more than twice in 90 minutes, and they have won away to Real three times in that period. Atletico will look to keep it tight early on, and the half-time 0-0 might be worth a bet, along with taking 4/5 on under 2.5 goals in the 90 minute match.
The Solid Bet: Bayern Munich -1.5 vs FC Porto at 1/1
Having backed Bayern to get the job done early in Portugal, it is with caution that I am backing the Germans here. However Bayern have won all four home Champions League games to nil this year, scoring 13 goals in the process, and all against competitive sides. In the last round they responded to a tentative 0-0 draw away to Shakhtar Donetsk by smashing the Ukrainians 7-0 in the home leg.
Like most Portuguese teams, Porto are a far more dangerous opponent on home soil, and the 3-1 win means they are likely to sit back at the Allianz Arena. But Bayern are just so strong at home. Their record in the league reads W12, D1, L1 with 46 scored and just six conceded. Their record so far this season suggests the result in Porto was a freak: many called it the worst performance of the Guardiola era. Keep faith with Bayern, and back them to win by two or more goals at evens.
The Outsider: Barcelona to draw with Paris Saint-Germain at 9/2
At 2/5 Barcelona don’t look worth a bet in a game that may not turn out to be very competitive. Unless PSG are leading at half-time, the tie will be over long before the final whistle is blown. They are 25/1 to pull off one of the great Champions League upsets and qualify. Under these circumstances, a draw at 9/2 looks an attractive price.
PSG showed they can be very solid away from home as their 10 men dumped Chelsea out in the last 16 at Stamford Bridge. Barcelona, despite their attacking instincts, know they have no need to be cavalier here. A draw would take them through with plenty to spare, and the signs suggest it is more likely than odds of 9/2 indicate.
The First Goalscorer: Carlos Tevez at 4/1 for Juventus at Monaco
After denying Monaco that crucial away goal in Turin, Juventus are 1/6 to make their first Champions League semi-final since 2003, when they were runners-up. The year after that, Monaco lost the final to Turin, and the side from the principality are 4/1 to overturn their first-leg deficit.
Carlos Tevez has had a superb season for Juventus, scoring 26 goals in 39 games. The former United and City striker is a real big game player, and Juventus know that an early goal would mean that Monaco would have to score three - a tough ask for a team who qualified from their group despite scoring just four goals in six games. Tevez is clearly the front-runner in the first goalscorer market, is in great form and is worth a bet at 4/1.