CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The UEFA Champions League returns this week with all 32 group stage teams in action in the first round of matches.
And it is Real Madrid, who have won three of the last four competitions, who are favourites to win it again this year, which would complete the greatest dominance of the famous trophy in the modern era.
The Spanish giants are the 15/4 favourites, but there is a new(ish) name behind them as second favourites: PSG, flush with cash, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe come in at 13/2. Next up are Bayern Munich and Barcelona at 7/1 apiece.
The joint English favourites are the two Manchester clubs at 11/1, while Chelsea are out at 16/1 due to a tougher group. Between them come last season’s defeated finalists Juventus, who look a good each way shout at 14/1. Then it’s Atletico Madrid and Liverpool at 20/1, Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla at 33/1, Tottenham Hotspur at 40/1 and the other clubs 50/1 or bigger.
The Banker: Benfica to beat CSKA Moscow at 4/6
For the first time in years, Moscow is represented by two clubs in this year’s competition. CSKA, who finished second in the Russian Premier League last year, travel to Portugal to face Benfica, but if their recent away form in this competition is anything to go by, they will find it tough.
Excluding qualifiers, CSKA have won just seven points from their last 15 Champions League away games, a run stretching back to 2012. Last year they were comfortably defeated away to Monaco and Spurs, and they have conceded three or more in seven of those matches.
Benfica are a reliably difficult team to play against at the Estadio da Luz. They defeated Borussia Dortmund there last year and went undefeated at home on the way to winning the Portuguese league last year, scoring 49 and conceding just nine in 17 games.
At 4/6 they look a safe bet to see off CSKA Moscow.
The Solid Bet: Juventus to avoid defeat away to Barcelona at 5/4
After a humbling transfer window where they lost their second most valuable asset, Barcelona go into this season at perhaps their lowest point for 13 years - though that is not saying much. And they look overrated at home to a Juventus team who saw them off with ease in the quarter-finals of last year’s competition.
Juventus blitzed Barcelona 3-0 in Turin before comfortably playing out a 0-0 draw in Catalonia to go through, and it is very hard to make a case for Barcelona at 4/6, even though they have won 15 consecutive Champions League home games before the afore-mentioned goalless draw.
With Olympiakos and Sporting Lisbon unlikely to challenge for qualification, Juventus know that a draw in Barcelona would be a major step towards winning this group. But with their forward line, do not expect them to be as defensive as they were in April.
Simply opposing the 4/6 about Barcelona is the best way to go here.
The Outsider: Roma to beat Atletico Madrid at 2/1
With Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Roma and Qarabag, Group C looks like one of the most interesting sections of this year’s draw. The first three teams are likely to defeat the rookie Azerbaijanis, leaving a desperate scrap for the two qualification places. And Roma have a big chance to steal a march on their rivals by beating Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
Atletico are one of the savviest European teams around, but the home side will be fresh after their game against Sampdoria at the weekend was postponed. In their admirably close title race with Juventus last year, Roma won 16 of their 19 home games, rattling 50 goals past their opponents. Atletico, meanwhile, have had a jittery start away from home in the league, drawing at Valencia and, more disappointingly, 2-2 at Girona. This will be a close game, but on their day Roma are a fearsome side, and even Atletico’s defence may not be able to cope.
The First Goalscorer: Willian for Chelsea against Qarabag at 11/2
Chelsea go into their game against Qarabag as 1/9 favourites, although even that does not make the shortest price of the first day of games, which goes to Bayern Munich at 1/10 against Anderlecht.
Antonio Conte has indicated that he will not start Alvaro Morata and Eden Hazard ahead of Sunday’s derby against Arsenal, meaning that Willian, who did not start against Leicester on Saturday, is the attacking player we can say is most likely to play a big part against Qarabag.
The Brazilian scored five in Chelsea’s last Champions League run two years ago, as well as scoring four in last season’s FA Cup. He will see plenty of the ball and is just the kind of player to do the job for Chelsea. At 11/2 he is the best bet to score first.
CL Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The second night of Champions League football this year sees winners of three of the last four tournaments attempt to defend their title, with Real Madrid 1/25 favourites to beat APOEL Nicosia, the champions of Cyprus.
Otherwise the night’s fixtures sees the return of Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool to the competition, while 2013 finalists Borussia Dortmund face a difficult trip to London to face Tottenham Hotspur. The night promises goals, with a draw no shorter than 13/5 in any of the eight games.
The Banker: Manchester City to beat Feyenoord at 2/5
Manchester City showed their attacking credentials with a 5-0 win against Liverpool at the weekend, their first truly convincing performance of the weekend, although they were aided by a controversial red card for Liverpool’s Sadio Mané. They travel to Rotterdam to face Feyenoord, and it is the kind of game a Pep Guardiola side should negotiate easily.
Feyenoord won the Dutch league last year, but the Eredivisie is not a league that prioritises defending. City’s attacking depth is great enough that any combination of David Silva, Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Sterling and Sane, along with one or both of their two forwards, will be enough to cause havoc for Feyenoord’s back line.
Even at 2/5 this shoud be an easy win for the Manchester club.
The Solid Bet: Sevilla to avoid defeat at Liverpool at 5/4
Liverpool were unfortunate in their 5-0 defeat to Manchester City, but this season they have still shown signs of a defensive naivety that could cost them dearly in the Champions League. And Sevilla, consistent winners of the Europa League and who, last year, were unluckily knocked out in the last 16, are just the kind of European pros to give Jurgen Klopp’s side a nightmare start to their campaign.
Liverpool swept past Hoffenheim in the play-off round, but Sevilla post a much sterner test. They have looked solid so far this year, conceding just once in their first three La Liga matches. Liverpool’s current team are relatively unused to big European nights together, and it would be unwise to back them at 4/6 against a team that could easily finish in the Premier League’s top six. But given that a draw would be a decent result for Sevilla, backing them to avoid defeat at 5/4 looks the best bet.
The Outsider: Borussia Dortmund to win at Tottenham Hotspur at 21/10
Perhaps the toughest Champions League group this year sees Real Madrid face off against Borussia Dortmund, Spurs and APOEL Nicosia. And for Tottenham, who are consistently given tough groups in this competition, the worst possible first match was a home game against Borussia Dortmund.
It is likely that they will lose both matches against Real Madrid - same with Dortmund - so the matches between the two clubs take on massive importance. But Spurs are still unsettled at Wembley, their temporary home while a new ground is built. And there are few teams better placed to take advantage of Spurs’s nerves than a fired-up, clinical Borussia Dortmund side.
Dortmund never play for a draw: it is not in their nature. So the match is likely to be end-to-end. And given Spurs’s disappointing inability to create big chances in their home games against Chelsea and Burnley, you have to side with Dortmund here at 21/10.
The First Goalscorer: Lorenzo Insigne for Napoli at Shakhtar Donetsk at 7/1
Shakhtar Donetsk are back in the Champions League, but the side of Willian, Fernandinho and Douglas Costa playing in the Donbass Arena are long gone. Shakhtar’s side is not so star-studded now, and due to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine they have to play their home games elsewhere in the country. All this means that Napoli go into their game there as fairly firm 23/20 favourites, and Italian winger Lorenzo Insigne looks well placed to be the first goalscorer at 7/1.
Insigne notched up 18 in Serie A last year - comfortably his best return for Napoli. This run included seven in nine games in the second half of the season. Although he is yet to get off the mark this year, his performances have been impressive and it is worth keeping the faith with him and backing him to break the deadlock.