CL - Matchday 5 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The fifth Champions League matchday tends to be where the top teams secure their progress to the next round. Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal and Shakhtar Donetsk can all qualify on Tuesday and Wednesday, while positive results for Real Madrid, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund and FC Porto can guarantee top spot in their section, thus guaranteeing an easier route to the latter stages of the competition.
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are both 3/1 to win the tournament, so it's evens that someone else wins it. This is a good demonstration of how, over the last five years, the world's top talent has become more and more concentrated at the biggest four or five clubs. The only other teams with a better than 14/1 chance of winning it are Barcelona at 11/2 and Chelsea at 6/1.
Let's handicap MatchDay 5 of the Champions League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Atletico Madrid to beat Olympiakos at 2/5
Olympiakos have never been total whipping boys at the group stage, and again this year they stand a good chance of qualification for the knockout stages. However, as always, this has been achieved purely through good home form at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Even in international competitions, where home advantage is stronger than in domestic competitions, the difference is astonishing. Olympiakos have won 12 of their last 16 home Champions League games. Away from Piraeus, their record in the same time reads W3, D2, L12. That means 77% of their points are won at home.
Atletico are unbeaten at home since February and have won nine out of ten at the Vicente Calderon this season. A repeat of their defeat away to Olympiakos on Matchday 1 looks very unlikely, and 2/5 looks like your banker of the week.
The Solid Bet: Maribor +1.5 at Sporting Lisbon at evens (1/1)
The 11/1 available on Maribor, who have drawn three out of four in the Champions League so far, makes very little sense and seems purely based on reputation. Not that Sporting Lisbon are that good. They are down in eighth in the Portuguese League, and have themselves drawn six times already this season.
As for Maribor, they are third in the Slovenian league but have hit some form recently, with a 3-1 win at Krka preceding a 4-0 hammering of Koper. There is still every chance that they could qualify from this group. They are just two points off second-placed Schalke 04, whom they host on the final matchday, and the Germans will probably lose to Chelsea tonight.
There are lots of ways to back a clearly underrated Maribor side here. Draw or Maribor is available at an appealing 5/2, but I'm plumping for +1.5 on the handicap at even money. Sporting have only won one Champions League game by more than one goal in six years, and Maribor's impressive draws at home to Chelsea and away to Schalke show they are at this stage on merit.
The Outsider: Ludogorets Razgrad to beat Liverpool at 3/1
Liverpool's current run of results reads one win, one draw and five defeats in their last seven games. The draw (0-0 at home to Hull) and the win (2-1 in the League Cup against Swansea) were arguably their easiest games during that run. Simply put, Liverpool are in big trouble at the moment. They travel to Bulgaria to play newcomers Ludogorets Razgrad just three days after a punishing 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace for their biggest game of the season so far.
Liverpool's familiar problems just are not going away: with Daniel Sturridge out for another six weeks there is a painful lack of movement in the final third. Steven Gerrard is fast becoming a liability at central midfield - unable to position himself correctly and not doing any of the organisational work one might expect of a captain. And the defence is still dreadful.
In Ludogorets they face a team that has nothing to lose, a team that Liverpool needed a last minute winner to beat at home, who took the lead against Real Madrid and a team who beat Basel. You would be mad to take 19/20 on Liverpool at the moment, and there are few signs that they can buck recent form in Sofia on Wednesday.
The First Goalscorer: Thomas Muller for Bayern Munich at Manchester City at 5/1
Manchester City's woes in the Champions League look set to continue after a disastrous home defeat to CSKA Moscow left them needing two wins from their last two games to qualify for the last 16. They are 12/5 outsiders to beat 23/20 Bayern Munich, who have already won the group. While I would be cautious about siding with either team here, there does look to be a good bet in the first goalscorer market, where Thomas Muller is 5/1 to get on the scoresheet first.
Muller's record against English teams is excellent, and he recently scored a hat-trick for Bayern in a 4-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt. Manchester City will be attacking a lot, and this will give Bayern good opportunities to counter-attack, which is where Muller is at his best. He also takes penalties.
Champions League Betting Preview
By Covers.com
PSG v Ajax Amsterdam
PSG will be looking to secure first place in the group with a win against Ajax Tuesday.
With seven wins in a row for PSG, you'd have to expect them to run out comfortable winners in this one. The Parisians have not lost a game at home in the Champions League since 2004. Ajax's away form is equally as impressive, but not in a good way, they haven't won an away game since 2011 (Dinamo Zagreb). PSG will also welcome Zlatan Ibrahimovic back from injury.
Key Stat: PSG are undefeated in 20 of their last 22 matches in the Champions League
PSG -275
Draw +450
Ajax +1100
Man City v Bayern Munich
Nothing other than a win will do for Manchester City as they lie bottom of Group E. Bayern have already secured top spot and won't have much to play for.
A lot of money is coming in on Bayern to win this game, and who can blame the public? Man City have been very poor this season. The public are expecting Bayern to take it easy on Man City due to them already qualifying for the next round, We don’t believe that to be the case, Pep Guardiola as always will have his team motivated to win this one.
Key Stat: Man City have failed to win their last six matches in the Champions League
Man City +260
Draw +280
Bayern Munich +114
Schalke v Chelsea
Chelsea will be able to secure first place in the group with a win in Germany on Tuesday. Chelsea have been in fine form this year, many Bookies have even paid out early on them winning the Barclay's Premier League!
Schalke have been disappointing of late losing three of their last five in all competitions and conceding 10 Goals in the process. They will also be missing their "Wonderkid" Julian Draxler who is sidelined with a hamstring injury. We anticipate a tight game, but Chelsea should have enough to edge it
Key stat: Schalke’s last 10 home games in the Champions league have yielded 3.6 Goals per game
Schalke +375
Draw +275
Chelsea -117