Champions League Betting Preview

CL - Matchday 5 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com

The fifth Champions League matchday tends to be where the top teams secure their progress to the next round. Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal and Shakhtar Donetsk can all qualify on Tuesday and Wednesday, while positive results for Real Madrid, Chelsea, Borussia Dortmund and FC Porto can guarantee top spot in their section, thus guaranteeing an easier route to the latter stages of the competition.

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are both 3/1 to win the tournament, so it's evens that someone else wins it. This is a good demonstration of how, over the last five years, the world's top talent has become more and more concentrated at the biggest four or five clubs. The only other teams with a better than 14/1 chance of winning it are Barcelona at 11/2 and Chelsea at 6/1.

Let's handicap MatchDay 5 of the Champions League.

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

The Banker: Atletico Madrid to beat Olympiakos at 2/5

Olympiakos have never been total whipping boys at the group stage, and again this year they stand a good chance of qualification for the knockout stages. However, as always, this has been achieved purely through good home form at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Even in international competitions, where home advantage is stronger than in domestic competitions, the difference is astonishing. Olympiakos have won 12 of their last 16 home Champions League games. Away from Piraeus, their record in the same time reads W3, D2, L12. That means 77% of their points are won at home.

Atletico are unbeaten at home since February and have won nine out of ten at the Vicente Calderon this season. A repeat of their defeat away to Olympiakos on Matchday 1 looks very unlikely, and 2/5 looks like your banker of the week.

The Solid Bet: Maribor +1.5 at Sporting Lisbon at evens (1/1)

The 11/1 available on Maribor, who have drawn three out of four in the Champions League so far, makes very little sense and seems purely based on reputation. Not that Sporting Lisbon are that good. They are down in eighth in the Portuguese League, and have themselves drawn six times already this season.

As for Maribor, they are third in the Slovenian league but have hit some form recently, with a 3-1 win at Krka preceding a 4-0 hammering of Koper. There is still every chance that they could qualify from this group. They are just two points off second-placed Schalke 04, whom they host on the final matchday, and the Germans will probably lose to Chelsea tonight.

There are lots of ways to back a clearly underrated Maribor side here. Draw or Maribor is available at an appealing 5/2, but I'm plumping for +1.5 on the handicap at even money. Sporting have only won one Champions League game by more than one goal in six years, and Maribor's impressive draws at home to Chelsea and away to Schalke show they are at this stage on merit.

The Outsider: Ludogorets Razgrad to beat Liverpool at 3/1

Liverpool's current run of results reads one win, one draw and five defeats in their last seven games. The draw (0-0 at home to Hull) and the win (2-1 in the League Cup against Swansea) were arguably their easiest games during that run. Simply put, Liverpool are in big trouble at the moment. They travel to Bulgaria to play newcomers Ludogorets Razgrad just three days after a punishing 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace for their biggest game of the season so far.

Liverpool's familiar problems just are not going away: with Daniel Sturridge out for another six weeks there is a painful lack of movement in the final third. Steven Gerrard is fast becoming a liability at central midfield - unable to position himself correctly and not doing any of the organisational work one might expect of a captain. And the defence is still dreadful.

In Ludogorets they face a team that has nothing to lose, a team that Liverpool needed a last minute winner to beat at home, who took the lead against Real Madrid and a team who beat Basel. You would be mad to take 19/20 on Liverpool at the moment, and there are few signs that they can buck recent form in Sofia on Wednesday.

The First Goalscorer: Thomas Muller for Bayern Munich at Manchester City at 5/1

Manchester City's woes in the Champions League look set to continue after a disastrous home defeat to CSKA Moscow left them needing two wins from their last two games to qualify for the last 16. They are 12/5 outsiders to beat 23/20 Bayern Munich, who have already won the group. While I would be cautious about siding with either team here, there does look to be a good bet in the first goalscorer market, where Thomas Muller is 5/1 to get on the scoresheet first.

Muller's record against English teams is excellent, and he recently scored a hat-trick for Bayern in a 4-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt. Manchester City will be attacking a lot, and this will give Bayern good opportunities to counter-attack, which is where Muller is at his best. He also takes penalties.