Champions League: Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
The Champions’ League has been away too long, but it’s finally back this week with the first leg of the mirror matches that make up Days 3 and 4.
TUESDAY
RANGERS (-0.5, -120) vs. UNIREA URZICENI
Rangers beat St. Johnstone 2-1 away on Saturday; Unirea Urziceni lost 2-1 at home to Vaslui on Friday.
So far, each of these teams has drawn Stuttgart 1-1 and been outclassed by Sevilla. This might suggest that they’re evenly matched so the spread is spot on, but don’t be fooled. Rangers are the play here at anything better than -1.
Rangers have five wins and three draws in an undefeated run to start the SPL season. In terms of class, the Scottish and Romanian leagues aren’t far apart and Unirea Urziceni have struggled domestically. In 10 games they’ve won five, drawn two and lost three. I don’t know much about Vaslui, I admit. What I do know is that if you can’t get a point off Vaslui in your home game, you shouldn’t expect a good showing at Ibrox against Rangers four days later.
Pedro Mendes (thigh strain) and Madjid Bougherra (international duty) return to the Rangers team sheet after missing out on weekend action.
Prediction: Rangers 2, Unirea Urziceni 0.
WEDNESDAY
CHELSEA (-1.5 flat) vs. ATLETICO MADRID
Chelsea lost 2-1 away to Aston Villa on Saturday; Atlety lost 3-0 away to Osasuna Sunday.
We opposed Chelsea on Saturday and we’re against them on the handicap here. The loss at Villa Park was Chelsea’s second of the year. True Blue fans will say that the earlier loss to Wigan was all about a bogus sending off of Peter Cech. Fair enough, but Chelsea also left it very late to put away Hull and Sunderland this season. This is not a team that’s firing on all cylinders, so the handicap is a half goal too big.
Atlety have started slowly, both in this competition and in Spain, but in 11 competitive matches against this handicap they’re 7-4. Two of the losses came to great teams away (Barcelona, Porto). Sunday’s half-hearted effort in Pamplona is discouraging, but helps with the price. Atlety were clearly looking ahead to this match. Chelsea are a very good team but are out of rhythm, so Atlety keep this one close.
Over 2.5 looks nice around -110, but the market currently looks like -125 to -120 so that’ll be probably have to be passed this time.
Prediction: Chelsea 2, Atletico Madrid 1.
KEEP AN EYE ON: Nine-time European Champions Real Madrid play Milan Wednesday. Organized, defensive teams have been the bane of Real’s existence since Makelele was sold to Chelsea five years ago. For all the offensive firepower bought this summer, let’s see if Kaka and Co. can play any defense at all against his former team. Real coughed up two goals again on the weekend. They’re favored by more than one against Milan here. But for Milan’s slow start, that would be the stupidest line of the last few years.