Champions League Final
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Juventus vs. Real Madrid
The somewhat random nature of knockout competitions means that the two teams meeting in the final showpiece match are often not the best teams in the competition. But for this year’s Champions League final, that is not the case. Juventus and Real Madrid have been the best two teams in Europe this year, and this a truly worthy final. It should be a fantastic match.
Juventus’s route to the final was extremely imperessive. A run-of-the-mill 3-0 aggregate win over FC Porto was followed by a 3-0 win against Barcelona, who had just overturned a 4-0 deficit to knock out Paris Saint-Germain. A repeat was expected by some. But Juve put in a supremely mature display to ease through with a 0-0 in Catalonia. Next up were Monaco, the tournament’s surprise package whose young team had blitzed their way past Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund playing a wonderfully bold brand of attacking football.
But Juventus are a more mature (that word again - it sums up Massimiliano Allegri’s side) side than Monaco’s two previous opponents, and a brace from Gonzalo Higuain put them in control ahead of the second leg in Turin, which they won 2-1.
Real Madrid, who sealed the La Liga title two weeks ago, were given a tough looking tie against Napoli in the last 16, facing one of Europe’s best attacks and playing in one of Europe’s most hostile, atmospheric stadiums. But two 3-1 wins really changed perceptions of Zinedine Zidane’s side, showing that their immense skill could combine with tactical nous and cool heads to overcome a difficult challenge.
Then came Bayern Munich, where a masterful performance from Cristiano Ronaldo put them 2-1 up after the first leg. However the second leg proved trickier, with Real only progressing after extra time and after Bayern had been reduced to ten men. Real all but secured their progress in the first leg of the semi-final with Atletico with a 3-0 win, before the second leg - a 2-1 defeat which was ruined by the away goals rule.
There has not been a tighter looking Champions League final in years. It’s almost 50/50, with Real just about favoured as 17/10 favourites. Juventus are 2/1 and a draw is 21/10. Juventus are 19/20 to qualify and Real are 17/20. Both sides have fully fit squads to choose from, and the only major selection dilemma is whether Real will go with Isco or Gareth Bale, who will be desperate to play in his home city.
Juventus perhaps have the greater motivation to win. While Real Madrid have won two of the last three Champions Leagues, Juventus have not won the tournament since 1996. It may also be the last match for legendary goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon. Several players, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini, have spoken of their desire to “do it for Gigi”.
But then again, Real Madrid are the biggest of all the big clubs, and the ruthless, unforgiving mentality that runs through the club will not accept a Champions League final defeat, even given a successful league campaign. Real have won 11 of their 15 finals in this competition.
Their great strength is, to put it simply, their attack. Real have accumulated perhaps the greatest collection of talented players ever seen at one club. However, incredibly, all but one of their 12 Champions League games this year have seen both teams score - Real could not even keep out Legia Warsaw in their two group matches.
For Juventus, it is the opposite. Yes, their attack is very good - Paulo Dybala is likely to become the best striker in the world at some point, while Gonzalo Higuain is a reliable finisher (except in finals…), but this Juventus team will always be remembered for Buffon, and the three centre-backs. Barzagli, Bonucci and Chiellini has now become Bonucci and Chiellini with age overtaking Barzagli, but the impenetrable wall remains. These are players that just love defending.
For a match with as much scrutiny as this, there will be no obvious way to beat the bookies. Everything will be factored in, and the prices look about right on who will lift the trophy. Juventus are brilliant and deserve to be close to Real, but it is so easy to envision a tight match with Real prevailing in extra time or on penalties.
The best bet, in my opinion, is to back the draw at 21/10. Both of Real Madrid’s last two Champions League finals ended level after 90 minutes, and Juventus would probably take that if offered it. Three of the last five Champions League finals have ended 1-1, and that is an appealing 9/2.
The first goalscorer market may be the best way to make money. The obvious favourite here is Ronaldo, who is 7/2 to break the deadlock, but he is not one of my two picks for this match.
First is Paulo Dybala. He went through a goal drought during April, but scored in both of Juventus’s final two league games. But it was his performance at home to Barcelona, where he scored a brace, that really caught my eye. He is 13/2 to score first.
On the Real side I am going for Sergio Ramos, the centre-back, at 20/1. Ramos scores big goal after big goal. The opener against Atletico last year. The 94th minute equaliser against Atletico three years ago. Two goals away at Napoli this year. The first two goals in Real Madrid’s 4-0 win over Bayern Munich three years ago. Another last minute equaliser away to Barcelona in the league this year. It goes on and on and on. When you score that many big goals it is no coincidence, and even though he is a shade shorter than other defenders, he is worth a bet.
Best Bets
Draw at 21/10
1-1 at 9/2
First Goalscorer: Paulo Dybala at 13/2
First Goalscorer: Sergio Ramos at 20/1