Champions League Final Odds and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
History will be made in Lisbon on Saturday as, for the first time in the history of the Champions League, two sides from the same city contest the final (2:45 p.m. ET, Fox).
It is perhaps fitting that the city in question is Madrid, the capital of Spain, the nation which has dominated international football over the last few years.
Real Madrid head into the game seeking their 10th European Cup, and the world's biggest club is Saturday's favorite, at odds of -110 at the LVH SuperBook, to win in 90 minutes.
Yet Atletico are the newly crowned champions of Spain, and while this is only their second appearance in a European Cup final and the first for 40 years, we have learned throughout the course of the season never to underestimate the sense of self belief that courses through Diego Simeone's side.
The LVH has them priced at +330 to win in regulation, while the draw is offered at +240.
While this is the first encounter between the two sides in a European final, they have already met four times this season, twice in the league and twice in the Copa del Rey.
Atletico triumphed 1-0 at Real’s Bernabeu and perhaps deserved more than a 2-2 draw at home at the Calderon in La Liga, while in the cup Madrid won 5-0 on aggregate, producing some of their best football of the season in the process.
Expect Saturday's match to be extremely tight, though, with both sides missing key personnel.
The bookmakers certainly anticipate a low-scoring encounter with UNDER 2.5 goals offered at just -135, while three or more goals can be backed at +115.
The LVH has rolled out a suite of props for the Champions League final (which you can scroll through below), one of which sets the total first-half goals at 1 (UNDER -135).
Goal.com likes the first goal to come after 29 minutes, a prop not offered at the LVH. It’s priced at even-money elsewhere.
These two sides know each other extremely well and each knows how to nullify the threat posed by the other. This bet has paid out in each of Atletico's last four Champions League games away from the Vicente Calderon, and while Real Madrid have been prolific in this season's competition, the final match of the tournament looks set to be supremely tight.
Based on this line of thinking, Vegas bettors may want to consider UNDER for the first half and the game.
Champions League Final
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Champions League Final - Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid
Date: May 24, 2014
Time/TV: FOX, 2:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Estádio da Luz
Location: Lisbon, Portugal
Sportsbook.ag Odds:
Real Madrid -120
Atletico Madrid +240
Draw +260
Over 2.5 (+100)
Under 2.5 (-130)
The climax of the European soccer season sees Real Madrid face Atletico Madrid in the Champions League final at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon, Portugal. This is both teams’ biggest game for decades, for a number of reasons. Real Madrid have been stuck on nine Champions League victories ever since 2002, and the hunt for ‘La decima’ has taken on something of an obsession for Real. Atletico, who defied odds of 100/1 to win La Liga this season, will be desperate to get one over on their more famous cross-town rivals.
Both teams sailed through their groups with relative ease. Atletico saw off Milan, Barcelona and Chelsea to get to the final, while Real Madrid have knocked out three German sides - Schalke 04, Borussia Dortmund before a stunning 5-0 aggregate success over favourites Bayern Munich.
Recent form for both sides has been unusually inconsistent - so often in La Liga the top two or three sides brush their opponents aside with absolutely no fuss at all, but at the end of the season both these teams, as well as Barcelona, suffered a severe case of the jitters. It was Atletico, however, who lifted the title thanks to a hard-fought draw at the Nou Camp.
In terms of team selection for this match Atletico have one huge problem: their most prized-asset, centre-forward Diego Costa, is a doubt for the match with a shoulder injury. He has scored 35 goals this year and Atletico would certainly be hugely weakened without him. However the key to Atletico’s success this year has been a fantastic team spirit and hard work, meaning Costa’s absence would be less of a blow to Atletico than, for example, if Cristiano Ronaldo were to miss out for Real Madrid.
So, on to the betting. Real Madrid are available at 83/100 with Sportsbook.ag (as are all the odds quoted here), and this looks far too short. While they are, on their day, the best side in the world, it cannot be ignored that Atletico actually won La Liga. Are they significantly worse than Real Madrid? The answer is surely ‘no’, so a price of 12/5 on Diego Simeone’s side to win the match in normal time appeals, as does 11/8 on them to lift the trophy. However the price I really like here is the 13/5 draw. Atletico have possibly the best defence in Europe and, despite Real Madrid’s superb attacking options, I think Atletico have enough to make it to extra time.
People will look at the fact that Real have won three and drawn one of the four games against Atletico this season as reason to back Real, but it might be more important to look at the last time these two sides played a final against each other. This was last season’s Copa del Rey final, which Atletico won 2-1 after extra time at the Nou Camp. Just like for this match, all the pressure then was on Real Madrid, and the buckled under it. Atletico to win in extra time again is an 11/1 shot, and this looks very tempting.
Last, let’s have a look at the goalscorer markets, where there is a predictable 11/4 favourite in Cristiano Ronaldo. He has racked up 50 goals this season, and those prices look about right. Benzema, with one goal in his last 10, is to be avoided at 5/1. For Atletico, Diego Costa is at 11/2, but the price I really like here is on Atletico midfielder Raul Garcia at 9/1. He has scored 18 goals this year and has been a key part of his side’s success.
It all looks set to be a fantastic match. The best games in soccer are those between even teams playing contrasting styles, and this looks set to be a memorable night.
Top Bets:
Draw after 90 minutes at 13/5
Raul Garcia to score first at 9/1