CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Despite a faltering start to their La Liga campaign, Real Madrid remain the favourites to win the Champions League at 4/1 one third of the way into this season’s group stage.
Next up are Paris Saint-Germain, who have scored eight goals without reply in their two matches so far. Third in the betting are Barcelona at 6/1, with Bayern Munich, who now face finishing second in their group, available at 15/2.
Manchester City have stormed away in the Premier League and their Champions League price has consequentially shortened to 15/2. Manchester United are 11/1 with Chelsea 14/1. Juventus are 16/1, Atletico 22/1, Napoli an appealing 28/1, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool both 33/1 with everyone else 80/1 or bigger.
Tuesday Oct. 17
The Banker: Real Madrid to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 1/2
Spurs can go into their double-header with Real Madrid knowing the pressure is temporarily off after two successful opening games. No-one expects them to get anything off the 12-time European champions, and with Harry Kane in scintillating form Spurs will fancy their chances of springing a shock.
This is unlikely, however. While recent away form has been excellent, Spurs still struggle on the road in Europe. They lost 4-0 here six years ago and have often looked out of their depth against the best teams in Europe - including Monaco last year.
Real Madrid are a side that simply gets things done. The pressure is on Zinedine Zidane, but their ruthless display in Dortmund showed they can still keep their calm and deliver. At 1/2 they should be on your accumulator.
The Solid Bet: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at Feyenoord at 6/5
With Manchester City and Napoli currently the most free-scoring teams in Europe, pessimistic fans of Feyenoord and Shakhtar Donetsk could be forgiven to resigning themselves to a scrap for the Europa League spot in Group F.
But the Ukrainian side’s two performances so far suggest this will be no easy stroll for City and Napoli. Shakhtar looked very threatening against Manchester City and were unlucky not to go ahead before losing 2-0 with both goals coming in the second half. They followed that up with a highly impressive 2-1 win at home to Napoli.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, look like a team that has not played Champions League football in over a decade. They were beaten 4-0 and 3-1 by the group’s two favourites, and they look a significantly worse team than Shakhtar.
Since Donetsk remains too dangerous to host matches, Shakhtar have become used to playing on the road. They look good value at 6/5.
The Outsider: Besiktas to win at Monaco at 9/2
Besiktas have surprised everyone in a close-looking group by winning their opening two matches against FC Porto and Red Bull Leipzig. And now they face a Monaco side that have, quite understandably, struggled to cope with the loss of half their team.
They have picked up just one point so far, and they continued their poor form with a 3-2 defeat to Lyon in Ligue 1 at the weekend.
Besiktas are extremely solid at the back, having conceded just once in the Champions League, and their experienced squad was good value for both wins.
The prices seem to be underrating them, and at 9/2 they are worth a punt.
The First Goalscorer: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for Borussia Dortmund at Apoel Nicosia at 15/8
After defeats to Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur, Borussia Dortmund simply must win their two matches against Cypriot champions Apoel Nicosia to have any chance of qualifying for the last 16. They are 2/9 to win in Cyprus, with the draw 6/1 and a home win out at 14/1.
Although Apoel ended up losing 3-0 at home to Tottenham last time out, they actually shaded the first half and caused the Premier League runners-up more problems than expected. It was only the sharp shooting of Harry Kane that saw Tottenham through.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could fulfill the same role in this match. He scored a brace last time out as Dortmund lost 3-2 at home to Red Bull Leipzig, and a striker of his quality is unikely to draw a blank in a game like this.
CL Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Last night’s eight Champions League matches saw four teams all but guarantee their participation in the last 16 of this year’s competition. Manchester City’s 2-1 win over Napoli put them six points clear of the Italian side with three matches to go, and a draw in Naples would be enough to make it almost impossible for Pep Guardiola’s side not to qualitfy.
Besiktas have stormed away in Group G after a third consecutive win, this time a 2-1 win away to last season’s semi-finalists Monaco. And in Group H, Tottenham Hotspur’s impressive draw away to Real Madrid combined with Borussia Dortmund’s draw away to Apoel Nicosia have split the section into two. Real and Spurs are competing for the top spot, with Dortmund left to unceremoniously fight with Apoel for the Europa League spot.
Wednesday Oct. 18
The Banker: Chelsea to beat AS Roma at 4/6
Chelsea were extremely poor in their 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace at the weekend, and their hopes of retaining the Premier League title seem all but dashed already. But their two Champions League results so far - a 6-0 win at home to Qarabag and a highly impressive 2-1 win at Atletico Madrid suggest they are still the wily old European force they always have been.
They face Roma in a match that, should they win, would all but secure their qualification - probably in top spot. Roma had a disappointing result at the weekend too, losing 1-0 at home to Napoli and being thoroughly outplayed by the Serie A leaders. They are blighted by injuries and seem to have an infuriating habit of not playing at their best in Europe.
The absence of Alvaro Morata was a big reason for Chelsea’s poor display at Palace, but he is set to return. Given this, Chelsea look good enough value to win this crucial match.
The Solid Bet: Bayern Munich to win to nil at home to Celtic at 4/5
The widening gap between Europe’s elite and “the rest” seems to throw up a lot of groups like this. PSG and Bayern Munich will finish in the top two, while Anderlecht and Celtic, two big, proud clubs unfortunate enough to play in relatively small leagues, will finish third and fourth in some order.
So while Celtic showed their quality with a 3-0 win away to Anderlecht, they were embarrassingly shown up at home to PSG, losing 5-0, and there is every chance Bayern Munich could dish out the same sort of result when they face the Scottish champions.
Bayern have conceded just seven in eight league games this year, and the scarcity of chances available to Celtic could be the best way to side with the Munich side here. The Bavarians have won three of their last four home matches in all competitions without conceding, and a repeat of that looks likely here.
The Outsider: Basel to win at CSKA Moscow at 29/10
As Seville found out last night, losing 5-1 at Spartak Moscow, the Russian capital can be a very tough place to visit. But Basel’s stunning 5-0 win at home to Benfica proved they are more than a match for many teams in this competition. The Portuguese side had a man sent off, admittedly, but the score was already 3-0 by then.
The Swiss champions’ counter-attacking football completely bamboozled Benfica, and although CSKA Moscow are likely to dominate the ball, their record this season so far suggests Basel can repel them. Despite sitting third in the league, they have notched up just 15 goals in 13 league games this season. All three of their draws have ended 0-0.
Basel are an experienced side at this level, and a win here would put them in a great position to quality. At 29/10, they look a good bet.
The First Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku for Manchester United at Benfica at 3/1
Manchester United’s new striker Romelu Lukaku has received a bit of criticism after his side’s 0-0 draw at Liverpool. Lukaku’s record in big domestic matches remains patchy, but he retains the quality to bang in the goals in United’s lesser matches.
And this counts as one of them. Already Group A is shaping up with United being the big favourites to finish top, with any of the other three teams in the frame to finish second.
Despite drawing a blank at Anfield, Lukaku has scored 12 goals in his last 11 matches in all competitions, for club and country. He will get plenty of chances against a leaky Benfica defence and is a good bet to score the match’s first goal.