Champions League Match analysis and Predictions
By Shawn Young
The Champions League playoff round starts Tuesday and this is the most lucrative time for sharp bettors.
The winner of each series is guaranteed about $10 million in rights fees and TV money never mind the gate, so teams go all-out. Bettors who do their own analysis can seriously clean up on confused bookies hoisting up weak numbers all over the shop.
Celtic vs. Arsenal (-0.5, +120)
Both teams looked awesome away in league play on Saturday.
I’m taking Celtic here and if it all goes wrong, I’m blaming my wife. My faithful missus was back in Mother Russia and seemed content that Celtic would not beat Dynamo Moscow earlier this month to get to this round.
She had history on her side. Celtic had not won away in Europe in eight years. Celtic won the match 2-0, but it was the wife’s commentary that most influences this pick: Celtic scored as each half wound down, but carried the play throughout. She said they’re in midseason form. Saturday’s SPL match at Pittodrie confirmed matters.
That’s enough for me. It’s really hard to evaluate Old Firm teams because the week-in, week-out competition in the SPL is often substandard, though Aberdeen look credible.
Dynamo Moscow are halfway through their season (soccer’s a summer sport in Russia) and only seven points out of first place—a good team. If Celtic can dominate Dynamo and Aberdeen away, surely getting a half-goal at home against Arsenal is worth a bet no matter how many goals Arsenal thumped in at Goodison Park.
Giddy-up.
Prediction: Celtic 1, Arsenal 1.
Timisoara vs. Stuttgart (-0.5, flat)
We’ll bet the home dog again, please, with similar logic in the analysis. No, the wife didn’t visit Romania on her trip, but it’s a hot-cold matchup.
Timisoara has started the Romanian league solidly. That may or may not be exciting, but in Champions League qualification action, Timisoara bounced UEFA Cup holders Shakhtjor Donetsk on away goals in the third round. There’s your evidence that Timisoara can play a little.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, has started the German season shaky in defense. The German Bundesliga is undoubtedly a tougher league top-to-bottom than Romania’s Liga I, and we’re not claiming otherwise. Still, an in-form Timisoara will give Stuttgart all it can handle.
Prediction: Timisoara 1, Stuttgart 1.
Panathinaikos (pick, flat) vs. Atletico Madrid
Neither team’s domestic league has begun yet. I think Atletico will at least get something out of this match.
While cross town rivals Real Madrid have been making all the headlines with big money acquisitions, Atletico has been all about recalling the youngsters they loaned out to other teams last year.
Their flashiest signing was a €4 million buy of Asenjo, Valladolid’s teenage goalkeeper. Greybeards Leo Franco, Maniche and Coupet have been shown the door.
Panathinaikos rallied from 3-1 down after the first leg to beat Sparta Prague 4-3 on aggregate in the qualifying round and will have no margin for error here whatsoever.
A difficult 2008 off the pitch was soothed by winning last year’s Champions League group stage and signing Silva and Gabriel.
Atletico Madrid is nevertheless of a higher class top to bottom. Panathinaikos fell to Spanish side Villarreal in the round of 16 last spring and have not improved. Atletico are better than Villarreal.
Prediction: Panathinaikos 1, Atletico Madrid 2.
Bonus picks
The International calendar and FA Cup have given us a midweek round of EPL. Here are two look-alike plays that are also worth a parlay.
Tuesday
Sunderland vs. Chelsea (-200)
Sunderland beat Bolton 1-0 away and Chelsea edged Hull 2-1 at home on Saturday.
Chelsea won a stunning 19 matches out of 20 against the bottom half of the league last season. Chelsea finished ahead of Liverpool and Arsenal last year largely on what they did against league minnows. With opening day skittishness out of the way, we’re going to back Chelsea against truly inferior opposition every chance we get.
In the end, Chelsea will be Chelsea, and Sunderland will be Sunderland.
Prediction: Sunderland 0, Chelsea 2.
Wednesday
Burnley vs. Manchester United (-300)
Burnley lost 2-0 away to Stoke on Saturday; Man United beat Birmingham 1-0 at home on Sunday.
Same story here folks. Manchester United won 19 out of 20 matches against the bottom half of last year’s Premiership. Burnley were actually in the Championship division and were a surprise addition to the EPL after a lucky playoff run last spring.
Like Chelsea, Man United had a sluggish start on the weekend, but like last year they did enough to collect all three points against weak opposition. The beat goes on here. Burnley are going straight back down, and will offer little resistance in this match.
Prediction: Burnley 0, Manchester United 2.
Parlaying short favorites is generally poison in the betting world, but since we believe in each game individually, a two-teamer at roughly even money looks like an advantage bet.