Champions League: Matchday 6 Preview and Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
Matchday 6 is boom-or-bust for bettors: Teams with nothing to play for often send out the second string.
Sometimes this is properly projected and baked into the overnight price. Sometimes it’s known only when starting lineups are submitted 30 minutes before the match.
If you see prices moving like crazy inside the last half hour, and you’re on the wrong side, bite the bullet and scalp yourself. Here’s a summary of the danger teams:
Bordeaux, Chelsea and Arsenal have won their respective groups.
Porto have already clinched second in their group.
Liverpool will finish third in their group and be demoted to Europa League.
Maccabi Haifa, Zurich, Debreceni and Rangers will finish last in their respective groups and are eliminated from Europe.
On the semi-interested front, Manchester United, Fiorentina, Lyon and Sevilla have qualified for the next round but are not assured of winning their groups. Group winners get home field for the second game in the round of 16 knockouts – something worth having.
On to the picks:
Tuesday
Juventus (pick -140) vs. Bayern Munich
(Juve beat Inter 2-1 on Saturday; Bayern beat Gladbach 2-1 on Friday.)
Second place to play for here and Juventus get it with a win or a draw – that’s why betting them at pick is more interesting than taking them on the moneyline near +130.
I’m a little concerned about 0-0. If it’s 0-0 late then with Bayern coming forward they’ll leave holes at the back and Juve will enthusiastically counter-attack to try to put the game away. Maybe something happens, maybe not.
The nervous moments could come with Juve up 1-0 with half an hour left – any attackers on the pitch will get subbed off and the Italians will show no interest at all in venturing into Bayern’s half.
Pick: Juve 2, Bayern 1
Wednesday
Olympiakos (-0.5, +110) vs. Arsenal
(Olympiakos beat Xanthi 1-0 away and Arsenal beat Stoke 2-0 on Saturday.)
This is a line that makes no sense until you realize that Arsenal have already won their group. Arsenal are infamous for sending out scrubs in meaningless games. That’s reflected in the price here, but not strongly enough.
Olympiakos need at least a draw here and won’t want to mess around with 0-0 unless it has to, so they’ll be out to score early and often if possible.
Bet this now, but here are the 10 outfielders Arsenal sent out against Stoke on Saturday: Sagna, Gallas, Vermaelen, Traore, Eboue, Fabregas, Denilson, Nasri, Rosicky, and Arshavin. If you see eight of these names on the Wednesday team sheet listed as starters (or seven plus Silvestre), bail out of this bet and accept my apologies.
Pick: Olympiakos 3, Arsenal 0