Champions League Matchday Six: Tuesday's Best Bets
By Shawn Young
Matchday Six is the Champions League most dangerous day for betting. Before we get to Tuesday’s tips, here’s a quick rundown of who is playing for what. Any team with nothing to play for could send out a pile of scrubs. In Bursaspor’s case, we’ve no way to tell the difference.
GROUP A: Spurs and Inter have qualified. Both on 10 points, Spurs hold the tiebreaker. Twente will finish third and head to the Europa League. Bremen is eliminated.
GROUP B: Schalke (10 points) and Lyon (nine points) have qualified. Benfica (six) and Hapoel Tel Aviv (four) have a Europa place to settle.
GROUP C: Manchester United and Valencia have qualified. Rangers goes to Europa League. Bursaspor is done.
GROUP D: Barcelona have won the group. The other qualifier will be Copenhagen (seven points) or Rubin Kazan (six plus the tiebreaker over Copenhagen). Panathinaikos are finished.
Odds provided by PinnacleSports.com.
MANCHESTER UNITED (-0.5, -140; 2.5 goals under -120) vs. VALENCIA
MU thumped Blackburn 7-1 on Nov. 27. Valencia lost 2-0 away to Real Madrid on Saturday. MU beat Valencia 1-0 in Spain on Matchday Two.
Dimitar Berbatov scored five goals in his last match.Valencia need a win to claim first place in the group and the favorable draw and schedule that goes with it. MU only needs the draw. Over goals is the bet here because Valencia have no choice but to attack from the outset. One team will always be pouring forward: if Valencia manage to take the lead, it’ll be MU’s turn to commit extra men up front.
The side is far trickier. The Red Devils are a cautious lean but not enough to bet: the first team hasn’t played a game in 10 days after the reserves were sent out to be thrashed at West Ham in the League Cup and Saturday’s match with Blackpool was postponed because of poor field conditions.
There could be a spot of rust on a Man United team that doesn’t have a quality win since October. Forget the side, and go for goals.
MU have no fresh injuries. Michael Owen suffered a setback in training last week and remains out. Paul Scholes and Patrice Evra are doing individual drills only and are major doubts. Valencia’s main injuries are psychological: they had plenty of chances in Madrid on Saturday but the finishing touch was non-existent. It should be a luck thing: Valencia pumped six goals past Bursaspor with only 53 percent of the ball possession.
Pick: Manchester United 3, Valencia 2
COPENHAGEN (-1, -125; 2.5 flat) vs. PANATHINAIKOS
Copenhagen beat Esbjerg 3-1 and Panathinaikos beat Panserraikos 2-0 on Saturday. Copenhagen beat Panathinaikos 2-0 in Greece on Matchday Two.
Give me Copenhagen. This bet is strictly about motivation. A win for the Danes means the knockout stage awaits them. Having already beaten the Greeks away, this is a hugely winnable home game for Copenhagen after dark in temperatures in the high-20s F.
I want to break one of my own cardinal rules betting this game: I’m going to suggest you take the moneyline at no more that -250 rather than the spread. The goalline is OK at -1, but do not lay more than the single goal. Copenhagen could bang in a bucket of goals, but the cold weather could mean that there’ll only be a few chances and a winner late on.
If you’ve got lots of pre-Holiday cash, try both the -250 and the -1. I’m on the prowl for the moneyline, and I’ve found a fair amount of -225 so far.
Pick: Copenhagen 2, Panathinaikos 0