Champions League Midweek Action: Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Tuesday
Barcelona (-2.5, even) vs. Dynamo Kyiv (3.5 over -120)
(Barcelona beat Malaga 2-0 away on Saturday; Dynamo Kyiv beat Zorya Luhansk 2-0 on Friday.)
Full disclosure: I’ve been attached to Real Madrid in one way or another since 1984. Fading Barcelona is a religious rite.
We’re fully aware that Barcelona are the holders of this trophy and have started the season extremely well. Still, the spread (2.5 goals) is too much here, meaning we have to go with the dog.
Kyiv are a good team themselves who are used to playing in this competition. Two weeks ago they beat Russian Champions Rubin Kazan. Last year they beat Porto away and lost 1-0 away to Arsenal. I’m not claiming that the Ukrainian league is as good as the Spanish. Kyiv have nevertheless opened the domestic season with seven wins and a draw from eight matches with a goal difference of +20. They’re not bad.
Barcelona have twice been held 0-0 this year by teams intent on playing defense: Inter Milan did it two weeks ago, and Shakhtjor Donetsk did it a month ago – a winner we gave you right here. Shakhtjor is looking up at Kyiv in the Ukrainian table, along with everybody else. If Kyiv can get through the first half hour, Barcelona will sense déjà vu.
Thierry Henry (thigh) is a serious doubt for Barcelona. Chygryinskiy, the one Barcelona player desperate to play in this match (Ukraine international and ex-Shakhtjor hard man) misses out with knee ligament damage. All the better for Kyiv bettors.
I think the right number is -1.5, -125. Two and a half is bananas. If you can grab the under 4 at -140 or better, play it that way instead.
Prediction: Barcelona 2, Kyiv 1.
Wednesday
Manchester United (-1.5, +125) vs. Wolfsburg
MU beat Stoke 2-0 away and Wolfsburg beat Honnover 4-2 on Saturday.
We went against Wolfsburg last time and they chose that match to start a hot streak. Ouch. They’re still giving up too many goals and a disciplined MU side is going to rip them apart. Wolfsburg haven’t shut a team out in eight matches and they don’t have the firepower up front to trade goals with MU.
Scene watchers wonder if Nani will get the start for MU after a poor performance Saturday. The club is deep; it won’t affect the price either way. MU rolls, with or without him.
The question here is not which team to bet, but how best to get your money down. The following are all pretty much the same thing: -1.5 +125; the Asian Line of “-1.25” at -105; -1, -145; and the straight win at -250. Bet whichever number you can beat and hope for the best.
I’m all in favor of using the total as a synthetic bet on the side when the handicap is larger than a goal. If you can go over 2.5 laying no more than -135, that’s worth a bet in addition to whatever you get down on MU (or instead of the side bet if you can’t find any of the above numbers). A 2-0 finish breaks our backs, but let’s whine about this bad beat if it occurs instead of fearing it before kickoff.
Prediction: MU 3, Wolfsburg 0.