Champions League: Midweek Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Tuesday
Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea (+110)
Atlety lost 1-0 away to Bilbao and Chelsea crushed Bolton 4-0 away on Saturday. Two weeks ago, Chelsea defeated Atlety 4-0 in London.
Chelsea need to be backed here for the same reason we backed them away on Saturday: at the moment, they’re the hottest team in the world.
If we look at their last six competitive matches, they’ve scored 18 goals and conceded two. That doesn’t include last Wednesday’s League Cup game, which Chelsea won 4-0 while fielding a sub squad. Team form comes and goes over the course of a long season. As long as Chelsea stay hot, we have to keep letting them build our bankroll.
Chelsea ripped Atlety apart in the first half of this home-and-home series. Atlety are in trouble again here. They’ve been unable to find their stride in either Spanish or European play. Their only convincing win since August was last Wednesday’s 2-0 win at Marbella in the King’s Cup. Marbella are staring at relegation from Spain’s semi-pro third division, and sit behind the farm teams of several Spanish clubs.
Yuck.
Atlety have little to hang their hats on. Saturday’s 1-0 loss at the San Mames, while not totally unexpected, gives no cause for optimism.
Chelsea have to decide whether or not to recall Drogba after a three-game European suspension. Kalou has filled in admirably. It’s an embarrassment of riches. Quique Flores manages Atlety for the first time in Europe after replacing Abel Resino. He’s had no luck domestically.
Pick: Atletico Madrid 0, Chelsea 2
Wednesday
Arsenal (-1.5, -130) vs. Az Alkmaar
Arsenal beat Spurs 3-0 and AZ beat Groningen 1-0 away on Saturday; two weeks ago these teams drew 1-1 in Alkmaar.
Arsenal are scoring goals in bunches. In their last six competitive games they’ve hit 17 goals and the only time they scored less than two was in the draw with AZ.
They might have had more in that game, but once Arsenal led 1-0 they settled back and were content to counterpunch. AZ ended up keeping half the cheese. That’s a mistake that Arsenal will not repeat here.
AZ coach Koeman is a genius but it might not matter: this year’s club, which he inherited, is much weaker than last year’s version. The results bear that out. Over last season’s 34-game Dutch League schedule, AZ lost four matches. Through 12 games this year, they’ve already lost six.
The difference is defense. Last year they allowed 22 goals. This year they’ve already surrendered 15. Arsenal are going to rip them apart and will not be settling for 1-0 or 2-0.
Tomas Rosicky (knee, hamstring) is back in the Arsenal team after playing only seven matches since the early days of 2008.
If you can lay less juice going over 2.5 compared to backing Arsenal -1.5, do that instead.
Pick: Arsenal 3, AZ 0.
Keep an eye on: Milan were too much for a naïve Real Madrid team two weeks ago. Let’s see what adjustments the club makes playing the return match on the road in the first real test for the new Real. An undisciplined game by Real will signal another second round flame-out come February.
Also: Barcelona travel to Tatarstan to face Russian champions Rubin Kazan. Rubin won the game in Barcelona 2-1, with some shops offering 40-1 for a Kazan win that night and over 100/1 for the correct score. Let’s see if the Tatar Rubies can get another result.