Champions League: Midweek Preview and Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
Matchday 5 is here. Punters, be very careful in Days 5 and 6 - some teams already know their fates and send out second string teams as a result.
As a reminder, Group winners host the second leg in the home-and-home knockout round. Runners-up host the first leg in the KO round. Third-place teams get kicked into the Europa League knockouts. Last place teams are done for the season.
TUESDAY
Barcelona (-0.5 -125) vs. Inter Milan
Barcelona drew 1-1 away to Bilbao and Inter won 3-1 away to Bologna on Saturday. On Matchday 1, they played a 0-0 draw in Milan, with Inter looking very poor.
The bet is Inter plus a half goal, for a few reasons. Full disclosure: I hate Barcelona and always will.
Barcelona has swine flu rippling through the squad. (Insert your own joke here, whether it refers to Thierry Henry’s hooves or not.) Toure, Abidal, and Marquez are out for sure and there may be more. Rumor has it that Messi has the flu, but he has an abductor strain for sure and is doubtful here.
Inter are in much better form than they were when these teams first played. Inter have a better manager, and The Special One is especially lethal when plotting strategy against a team he’s already seen.
If it’s tied after 75 minutes, a draw might just work for both sides: that kicks the can down the road to Matchday 6 when these teams have matches that look easier, at least on paper. It all points to a bet on Inter +0.5.
Pick: Barcelona 1, Inter 2
WEDNESDAY
Bordeaux (Pick, flat) vs. Juventus
Bordeaux lost 1-0 at home to Valenciennes on Saturday. Juve beat Udinese 1-0 on Sunday. On Matchday 1, these teams drew 1-1 in Turin.
Take Juventus at pick. If you see +185 on the outright win, that’s an equivalent bet.
Bordeaux have already qualified for the knockout stage, and Juve can join them with a win here. Juventus want to wrap it up here rather than need to get a result against Bayern Munich on Matchday 6.
Juve have looked good since a scary Halloween home loss to Napoli, and win here if they put their mind to ward beating a team with injury concerns.
Gourcuff is out for Bordeaux for this match, and Jussie and Chamakh are serious doubts. Coming off a flat game against Valenciennes, Bordeaux could mail this one in - it’s more important to get healthy than win in this spot.
Bordeaux are also near the top of the French League and if they want to stay there then health is an issue: they’re not as deep as a couple of the other teams in France.
Pick: Bordeaux 1, Juventus 2