Champions League Opening Round Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
The soccer season is in full swing and we've enlisted the help of a former European oddsmaker. Shawn Young is back with his weekly picks for the pitch. He'll be dishing Champ League predictions every Tuesday and EPL ones each Friday evening.
The opening games in the Champions League group stages are sometimes the toughest to pick. The form book is thin and teams are graded as much by what country they come from and their decades-old pedigree as by who they really are. Let’s go hunting for upsets on the handicap line.
Tuesday
Wolfsburg (-0.5, +125) vs. CSKA MOSCOW
(Wolfsburg lost 3-2 at home to Leverkusen on Saturday; CSKA beat Soviet Wings 3-0 on Saturday.)
Wolfsburg won the German Bundesliga last year but are midtable after five matches this year now that they’re not surprising anybody. They’re coughing up too many goals and are worryingly loose when they try to play the ball out of the defense.
Rubin and Spartak Moscow look like fighters for the Russian championship, but CSKA are in a scrap for third place and an outside shot at qualification for Champions League play next season. CSKA have the third-best defensive record in the league, and defense is the first thing to look for if a team is travelling in European competition.
CSKA are worth a bet here simply because Wolfsburg aren’t as good as people remember.
Prediction: Wolfsburg 1, CSKA 1.
Wednesday
Liverpool (-2.5, flat) vs. Debrecen
(Liverpool beat Burnley 4-0 on Saturday; Debrecen beat Paks 1-0 away on Friday.)
Debrecen is from Hungary, but you knew that already. You also know that they beat Levski Sofia 4-1 over two matches in the qualifying round, Talinn 2-0 in the round before that, and Kalmar on away goals in the round before that.
None of those teams are Liverpool. Liverpool have won this tournament five times and are one of the most popular teams in the world. That’s why the spread is so huge. The funny thing is, Liverpool’s recent record doesn’t show them as being so dominant. In a young English season they’ve already lost at home to Villa and away to Spurs. They struggled to beat Bolton away. They blew Burnley out on Saturday, but Burnley aren’t much.
At -1.5 this is probably a bet on Liverpool, and at -2 this is certainly a pass. But at -2.5, that’s too much. Liverpool are between -1000 and -1500 to win on the three-way price, and I’m not going to tell you they won’t get there. They probably will. Debrecen are pretty hot right now, however, and if they can withstand the first 15 minutes and hold their shape for the rest of the first half, they’ll keep this thing close enough for a cover. That’s all we ask.
This game won’t be fun to watch because Liverpool will easily have 60 percent of possession, but c’mon: we gamblers are a hardy bunch. Duck out of work early, bet the dog and take in this match at a Hungarian restaurant where the crowd will make you think the men from Debrecen have a shot straight up.
If you believe in Debrecen keeping it close, under 3 +120 is an equivalent bet if you can find it. If you totally disagree, and think Liverpool runs it up, the best play might be a synthetic shot at the over rather than the pure play of the spread. As always, shop around.
Prediction: Liverpool 2, Debrecen 0.