Champions League Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The Champions League group stage tends not to see many shocks. It is incredibly rare for a top seed not to qualify from the group, and it is very seldom that a bottom seed qualifies. With home and away accounting for so much in international club competitions, finding value can be a bit tough. The best way to go about it is betting on straight forecasts and who will qualify, as these are often the closest-run things.
The odds in brackets are to win the group per Sportsbook.ag
Group A: Atletico Madrid (10/11), Juventus (11/10), Olympiakos (11/1), Malmo FF (80/1)
On paper this looks like a clear case of 'two good; two bad'. Atletico Madrid were literally one minute away from Champions League glory back in May, before Sergio Ramos's header sent the final into extra time, which city-rivals Real Madrid then won 4-1. Juventus were knocked out in the group stages in controversial circumstances last time, but they are still a strong team. However, they will not be helped by the departure of manager Antonio Conte to the Italian National Team. The choice of Massimiliano Allegri as his replacement looks a strange choice.
Olympiakos are an often-underrated team and will not roll over. They are a fine force at home in front of their fanatical fans in Piraeus, and have a team full of up-and-coming talent. Striker Kostas Mitroglou is back from an awful spell at Fulham, and he will be looking to pick up where he left off after his ill-fated move to West London. Malmo, 20 times Swedish Champions, are appearing in the group stages for the very first time. They saw off a highly rated Red Bull Salzburg side in the play-off round, but Age Hareide's men are unlikely to progress further.
Top Bet: 1st - Atletico Madrid 2nd - Juventus - 5/4
Group B: Real Madrid (1/4), Liverpool (7/2), Basel (16/1), Ludogorets Razgrad (66/1)
Real Madrid have what seems like a second generation of Galacticos in their squad. However they have made a really poor start to their La Liga campaign with two defeats from three, and Carlo Ancelotti has a big job on his hands gelling his superstars into a cohesive unit. However they should have few problems with this relatively kind group. The real test will come when they face organised sides like Atletico Madrid and Chelsea in the knockout rounds.
Liverpool are back in the Champions League for the first time in five years after finishing second in the Premier League. They are a devastatingly quick side, but lack any real defensive solidity, and that will be their undoing. They should come through this group, however.
Basel have improved enormously over the last five years. Like a lot of clubs they are forced to sell their best players year after year, but there are always youngsters ready to replace the departed. They did the double over Chelsea in the group last year and could trouble Liverpool for second place. Bulgarian minnows Ludogorets Razgrad, who qualified thanks to Cosmin Moti's (a defender, believe it or not) penalty shootout heroics - in goal, will surely finish bottom of the pile.
Top Bet: Real Madrid to be Highest Scoring Champions League Team at 2/1
Group C: Bayer Leverkusen (2/1), Benfica (5/2), Monaco (11/4), Zenit St Petersburg (7/2)
The most interesting group. Never have the four teams in a group been so tight in the betting, but it is Benfica at 5/2 who look the value to come top of the pile. They have made a strong start to their league season and have a remarkably consistent record in European competition. They are a more balanced outfit than the others in the group and are my tip to come first. Bayer Leverkusen have scored nine (but conceded five) in just three games so far this season. Roger Schmidt's side will be able to concentrate on the Champions League this year with the league title almost certainly going to Bayern, but there are questions about their defence which, apart from Kyriakos Papadopoulos, looks weak.
Monaco have made a dreadful start to the season with defeats to Lyon, Bordeaux and Lorient. Having lost their two prized assets, Falcao and James Rodriguez, there is a sense that the project in the principality is being scaled back somewhat. The team is a mishmash of journeymen on big wages and people still there from their days in Ligue 2. They look an overrated outfit.
Zenit St. Petersburg are a real enigma. They have won 7 out of 7 in the league so far. Their team is an excellent balance of Russian grit and foreign flair, but so often they bottle it on the European stage. They nearly went out to Cypriot minnows Apollon Limassol in qualifying, and were poor in the Champions League last year. It will be fascinating to see how they do.
Top Bet: Benfica to win the group at 5/2.
Group D: Arsenal (11/10), Borussia Dortmund (11/10), Galatasaray (8/1), Anderlecht (28/1)
Arsenal simply never go out in the group stages and are probably better value than the 11/10 suggests to win this heat in what should really be a two-horse race. However Arsenal's luck with injuries at the moment is a reason to be cautious about steaming into them too hard.
All four teams in this group will be relying strongly on their home records: Arsenal are excellent at beating average teams at home, Dortmund and Gala rely on famously hostile home atmospheres, while Belgian champions Anderlecht scored 49 goals in 20 games at the Constant Vanden Stock last year.
Perhaps the best bet here is to back the draw in the opening game between Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal at the Westfalenstadion. At 11/4 the odds suggest a high-scoring game, but Arsenal have drawn three times out of four this year and 10 of their last 13 Champions League games have yielded under 2.5 goals. A draw is not a bad result for either side - if they draw with each other and beat Galatasaray and Anderlecht that will be enough to qualify, and I don't think this match will be as open as people suggest.
Top Bet: Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal to be a draw at 11/4
Group E: Bayern Munich (8/15), Manchester City (9/4), Roma (8/1), CSKA Moscow (40/1)
There is a strong argument that Bayern Munich have gone backwards under Pep Guardiola. Their style of football has morphed into tiki-taka, which now seems defunct after a series of high-profile heavy defeats from teams playing that style. While they are still a strong collective unit, it will take a lot for Bayern to come back from their 5-0 aggregate defeat in last season's semi-final with Real Madrid.
Manchester City have still not really made a mark on the Champions League this year, but that looks likely to change. Their squad has masses of experience of top-level football and look good value to get a result at the Allianz Arena in their first match.
This Roma side are one of the most exciting teams to have emerged from Italy in years, and must not be underestimated. They finished second to Juventus in Serie A after years in the doldrums. Daniele De Rossi, Miralem Pjanic, Kevin Strootman, Mattia Destro and Ashley Cole are all top-level European players and it will be fascinating to see how they do. CSKA Moscow will be a nuisance on home turf, but lack the quality to progress from a very strong section.
Top Bet: Manchester City Draw No Bet vs Bayern Munich at 11/4
Group F: Barcelona (4/11), Paris Saint Germain (9/4), Ajax (25/1), APOEL Nicosia (80/1)
Barcelona and PSG will qualify from this group, with Ajax very likely to finish third, but the real interest comes in who will top the group. Barcelona have topped their Champions League group seven years in a row, but that run could come to an end here. PSG were very unlucky not to knock the Catalans out at the quarter final stage two years ago and, since then, PSG have improved and Barca have declined.
This is very much a transition year for Barcelona under their fourth coach in the last four years, their former defender Luis Enrique. While Barcelona face another three-way fight for their La Liga crown, the Parisians are almost guaranteed to win Ligue 1, meaning they can focus more heavily on European competition. Assuming they don't slip up in the games with Ajax and APOEL, I'm backing PSG to get the better of Barcelona in their head-to-head with them.
Ajax, four times winners, have yet again had to sell many of their best players. Barcelona and PSG are not the kind of sides Ajax will do well against, as both will look to dominate possession. APOEL remarkably qualified for the quarter-finals in 2011-12, but a repeat of that would be an even bigger shock this time:
Top Bet: PSG to win the group at 9/4
Group G: Chelsea (1/4), Schalke 04 (9/2), Sporting Lisbon (9/1), NK Maribor (66/1)
Chelsea will have no problems here. In fact, they should have the section tied up four games in, allowing them to rest players in the final two fixtures. Chelsea face Schalke first up at Stamford Bridge, whom they beat 3-0 twice at this stage last season. They are a relatively easy team to play against, being so susceptible to the counter-attack.
Schalke will not win the group, but they should not face much competition for second. Sporting are a long way behind Porto and Benfica as the third best team in Portugal and their defence will be significantly weakened with the departure of Marcos Rojo to Manchester United. They have drawn three times already in the league this season.
Maribor are in the group stage for the first time in 15 years after defeating Celtic in the qualifying round. They have been a plucky force for a few years now and are experienced in European football with three consecutive Europa League group stages. They could get some results at home but, like most minnows, will be lucky to get anything on the road.
Top Bet: 1st - Chelsea 2nd - Schalke at 4/5
Group H: FC Porto (5/4), Athletic Bilbao (15/8), Shakhtar Donetsk (11/4), BATE Borisov (28/1)
The second most interesting group. This is a classic case of three good sides and one minnow. Porto are group stage experts, while Athletic Bilbao are in the competition for the first time since the 1998/99 season. Bilbao's policy of only picking Basque players limits them somewhat, but it creates a great team spirit and a laudable continuity. They will be tough opponents, especially at home.
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a nightmare of a summer. Their home city is a warzone, forcing Mircea Lucescu's men to play their home games hundreds of miles away in Lviv. Despite several high-profile sales, their team is the familiar mix of Ukrainian defensive players and Brazilian attackinh players. Douglas Costa, Bernard and Taison are seemingly the next on the production line, and they make the Miners' games particularly entertaining.
BATE Borisov caused a massive shock two years ago when they beat Bayern Munich 3-1 at home. The Belarusians are an organised, easily-underrated outfit but they struggle for goals.
Top Bet: FC Porto to win to nil against BATE Borisov at 5/6
Real Madrid vs. FC Basel Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides
Goal.com
Domestically, it has been a poor start to the new season for Real Madrid, with los Blancos losing the Spanish Supercopa as well as two of their opening three Liga matches.
It is therefore vital for the champions of Europe to make an impressive start to the defense of their Champions League title as much as for their morale and confidence as it is for their hopes to progress from the group stage.
Fortunately, Madrid begin at home where they have not lost in 18 Champions League matches, and the visitors on Tuesday, Basel, will be fully aware of just how much of a continental fortress the Santiago Bernabeu has become.
Yet Carlo Ancelotti's men were defeated at home by Atletico on Saturday, and that result will have given the Swiss champions hope that they can pull off a monumental shock, with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook pricing them at +2200 for the win.
It is worth remembering that Basel have real recent European pedigree, winning matches against Manchester United, Bayern Munich and Chelsea in the last three seasons, so this is no walkover for the defending champions. Not that the bookmakers seem to share that opinion. Madrid for their part are offered at -1000 to claim three points in a game where victory is the only option for them, while the draw is available at +900.
Despite their recent domestic disappointments, we have seen enough from Madrid to believe that they should be able to record a comfortable victory.
Furthermore, Basel are not the side they were last season with the departure of head coach Murat Yakin keenly felt within the ranks.
While Basel may currently be top of the Swiss Super League, they have not been overly convincing and they too suffered a defeat over the weekend, losing 3-1 to fierce rivals Grasshopper Zurich.
Basel have also kept just one clean sheet in the eight league matches they have played so far this season, and these defensive deficiencies can be capitalized on by Madrid.
While the posted total at the SuperBook is 3.5 goals, sports books outside of Vegas offer the hosts at -187 odds to score OVER 2.5 goals. Perhaps a more intelligent bet would be to back Cristiano Ronaldo to score two or more goals at -120, a prop that also can be found outside of Vegas.
Last season Ronaldo famously broke the record for goals in a single Champions League campaign, netting 17 times, and having had 18 days off he looked back to his best against Atletico on Saturday.
He already has four goals so far this season, and he is generally prolific at the Bernabeu, having scored in each of the last 12 home league matches he has played.
In last season's Champions League, this selection paid out six times and looks to be an excellent option.
Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City Betting Preview and Pick
By: Jim Knight
Goal.com
The champions of Germany host the champions of England in one of the most high-profile matchups of the opening round of Champions League fixtures.
Bayern Munich and Manchester City have regularly battled it out on the European stage, having been drawn together in the groups in three of the last four years. So, although players, coaches and tactics may have changed, these two know what to expect from one another on Wednesday at the Allianz Arena.
Bayern are the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s -165 favorites to record a home win and get their European campaign off to flying start, but those odds look a little on the short side for a team that have yet to get fully into their stride.
City are offered at +425 odds to shock their hosts for the second consecutive game by collecting maximum points from their trip to Munich. The draw is priced at +320 at the SuperBook.
Goals will be high on the agenda for plenty of bettors after the last two games combined saw nine scored. The posted total in Las Vegas is 3 goals (OVER +115, UNDER -135).
Outside of Vegas, OVER 2.5 goals is suitably short, priced at just -152. OVER 3.5 goals has also been well backed, priced at +167.
Manuel Pellegrini will be watching from the stands as he serves out a European touchline ban, but the Chilean boss can have confidence in his side leaving the Allianz with a positive result on Wednesday despite an indifferent start to their Premier League campaign.
Bayern will add Holger Badstuber to their growing list of absentees, which already includes Javi Martinez, Thiago and Bastian Schweinsteiger, while Arjen Robben is also nursing a knee injury.
Their domestic results, although positive, have yet to demonstrate the imperious form they are capable of at full tilt, especially with several members of the World Cup-winning Germany squad still being eased back into the campaign, although the addition of Xabi Alonso is already proving to be a great piece of business from Pep Guardiola.
City should be heartened by their battling draw with Arsenal last Saturday after their surprise defeat to Stoke, and their fans will hope that this is the season they can make the step up from domestic champions to serious European contenders.
With Yaya Toure set to return after picking up a slight knock on international duty, City may opt to deploy Sergio Aguero as a lone striker and look to pack the midfield and stifle Bayern's quick passing style.
With that in mind, Man City/Draw in the double chance market is of interest at +130. Although Bayern rarely lose at home, the fact that this game is the first group-stage match and is being contested between the two most fancied teams means it could lead to a close, cagey affair and Bayern look a little on the short side.
Applying this strategy in Vegas, bettors can take one of two approaches: 1) play Man City plus a goal at -130. While you’re laying extra vig than in the recommened second change bet, you’d also push if Man City loses by a goal; 2) make separate bets on Man City at +425 and a draw at +320.
Goal.com value bet: Manchester City/Draw (Double Chance) at +130