CL - Matchday 3 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Matchdays 3 and 4 of the Champions League, where teams play each other in back-to-back home and away games, is usually where this stage of the competition is decided. There seems little prospect of any of the big guns missing out on qualification to the knockout stages, so the real interest comes from the teams in pots 3 and 4.
Let's handicap Matchday 3 of the Champions League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Real Madrid to win at Liverpool at 4/5
It may seem a bit bold to be backing a team at odds-on away from home, but judging by Liverpool's dreadful performance against QPR (a game they won 3-2 thanks to two own goals), Real Madrid could absolutely steamroller the Reds at Anfield. After a dodgy start in La Liga Real have now won five on the bounce, most recently disposing of Levante 5-0 away from home. The Spaniards have also had an extra day to prepare over Liverpool. Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 17 goals in 10 games this season - a frankly ridiculous stat. Liverpool's chief weakness is their centre-backs, and the pessimists among Liverpool's fanbase will be trembling at the thought of what Bale, Ronaldo, Benzema and co. could do to them.
Liverpool seem to have taken quite a few steps backward from last year. Mario Balotelli has had an awful start in his second spell in England, the defence is even more leaky than last year, and Steven Gerrard has continued his poor form from the back end of last season. And of course, they don't have Suarez to get them out of trouble any more. The media love to talk about 'famous European nights of Anfield', but this one could be famous for all the wrong reasons for Liverpool.
The Solid Bet: Basel to win at Ludogorets Razgrad at 8/5
Both these teams lie second in their domestic leagues, but will treat their European games with far more importance. And after outclassing Liverpool in their last game, it is Basel who have a bit more to play for, as well as more quality, when they travel to Bulgaria to face new-boys Ludogorets Razgrad. Ludogorets have exceeded all expectations so far, losing 2-1 to both Liverpool and Real Madrid, who have fourteen Champions League titles between them. However those were games that their players could get really excited for, and also where the opposition may have taken them lightly. With a real chance of qualifying, Basel will not be taking any chances in Bulgaria having seen how close better sides than them came to dropping points against Ludogorets.
The Outsider: Roma to beat Bayern Munich at 14/5
As usual, Bayern Munich look set to coast the Bundesliga, but they may meet their match in a Roma side that lies second in Serie A. Their only dropped points came away to Juventus - their hardest game of the year, and they put in an excellent performance in that game, losing 3-2. Roma hammered CSKA Moscow in their opening game before drawing at Man City, and they look a good bet to qualify from the group.
Bayern are often left untested in their domestic league, and all the signs over the last few years have been that the tiki-taka football favoured by Pep Guardiola has long since peaked. A draw would be a reasonable result for both sides, but the price on Roma is just too large to ignore. They have proven already that they may be better suited to European football than Juventus, and will have a ferocious home atmosphere behind them.
The First Goalscorer: Seydou Doumbia for CSKA Moscow vs Manchester City at 9/1
The 4/7 available on Manchester City, for whom this is a must-win game, seems far too short for a side that has never really impressed in the Champions League. So it would pay to find ways of backing Russian champions CSKA Moscow. They have won five games on the bounce in the Russian Premier League and should be shorter than 11/2. However the best bet here comes in backing Ivorian striker Seydou Doumbia to break the deadlock at 9/1. He has scored six goals so far this season and his pace and power could trouble a City backline that has often looked suspect at the top level. CSKA will be hampered by the fact that this game will be played in an empty stadium, but this will be an unfamiliar feeling for City as well. Doumbia notched 18 last season and is by far the Russians' main goal threat.
CSKA Moscow vs. Manchester City Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Yet to record a victory in this season’s Champions League, Manchester City face a must-win encounter when they travel to Russia to face CSKA Moscow on Tuesday (12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1).
Having taken just a point from opening games against Bayern Munich and Roma, Manuel Pellegrini’s men are -190 with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to record a priceless victory here.
The hosts have lost six consecutive matches in this competition and are severe +525 underdogs to pull off a shock win at the Arena Khimki.
The draw against Roma was City’s first in 11 fixtures in this competition, but you can get odds of +325 on them being held to another stalemate this time out.
City can also be backed at -1 goal (-105) at the SuperBook, with Moscow offered at -115 with the goal cushion.
More soccer betting info: Goal.com has you covered
With victory vital to their prospects of progression from a difficult group, the visitors will be extremely grateful for the form of star striker Sergio Aguero in recent fixtures.
The Argentine’s four-goal haul in Saturday’s 4-1 victory over Tottenham took his tally to 10 in 10 this season, and he will travel east in full confidence of adding to that impressive record against a side he put four past over two fixtures in last season’s competition.
Having such a lethal striker leading the line for them will ensure that Pellegrini’s team walk onto the pitch in high spirits on Tuesday, where the empty Khimki Arena seems certain to witness another defeat for a team with a woeful recent record in European competition.
Leonid Slutsky’s team have failed to get going at all in their first two matches of this year’s competition, finding themselves behind after just six minutes in the opener against Roma before hanging on until around the 20-minute mark in the subsequent defeat to Bayern.
Considering CSKA conceded an Aguero goal a mere three minutes into their last match against these opponents, it would be no surprise should they offer similarly meek resistance once again, particularly given the guests’ speed in coming out of the blocks.
Having broken the deadlock courtesy of Aguero within 15 minutes in three of their last four games, odds of +145 – found outside of Las Vegas – appear solid value on City coming out on top after going in at halftime in the lead.
That bet would have paid out in five of CSKA’s last six Champions League fixtures, including both of last season’s meetings with Tuesday’s opponents.
Goal.com best bet: Man City to lead at halftime and win the game