Champions League Preview Tuesday, September 30

CL - Matchday 2 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com

The Champions League reaches its second matchday on Tuesday, and as predicted, we did not see many shocks in the first round of games. The only short priced favourite that failed to deliver was Chelsea, meaning it was a bad week for the bookies as punters queued up to cash in their accumulators. There are more close games this week, and the most appealing games appear to be PSG v Barcelona, Manchester City v Roma and Atletico Madrid v Juventus. Where last week we had five teams priced up at 12/1 or longer, this week there is only one - Ludogorets Razgrad at 14/1 at home to holders Real Madrid.

Let's handicap Matchday 2 of the Champions League.

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

The Banker: Chelsea to win at Sporting Lisbon at 8/11

Chelsea put in a slightly lazy, lacklustre performance to surrender a 1-0 lead to draw with Schalke 04 two weeks ago. However their domestic form has been superb. The Blues' only dropped points so far were in a draw at Manchester City - their hardest game of the season. Chelsea were utterly dominant in a 3-0 win against Aston Villa last weekend. This easy victory allowed Chelsea to substitute Eden Hazard, Oscar and Diego Costa, making it likely that the trio will start at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. Against Schalke, Chelsea were held back by Didier Drogba starting up front. While still a useful asset off the pitch, Drogba looked like what he is against Schalke: a 36-year old coming off an okay spell in a league significantly worse than the Premier League.

After the draw with Schalke, Chelsea now have more pressure on them for this fixture, which usually brings out the best in them. And they face a fairly mediocre Sporting side. The men from Lisbon have drawn four of their six league games, as well as playing out a 1-1 draw with Maribor in their first group stage game. If Chelsea are on their game (and, with Costa and Hazard in great form, they should be), don't expect too much resistance from Sporting.

The Solid Bet: PSG to draw with Barcelona at 13/5

This is my selection mainly due to the excellent defences of both teams. Barcelona are yet to concede all season (quite a change from the porous days of Tito Vilanova and Geraldo Martino), while PSG have conceded just six in nine games.

Games like these are always assumed to be high-scoring. With little at stake (both teams will almost certainly qualify from the group), fantastic attackers on both sides and the general idea that 'good teams = good match, and good match = lots of goals' prevailing among punters. I'm going to go against the tide and predict a low-scoring game. While Barcelona dispatched Granada 6-0 last time out, they were astonishingly poor going forward in a 0-0 borefest at Malaga in the game before that. PSG have drawn five of their eight league games so far, and there is strong discontent in Laurent Blanc's camp.

Much of this ill feeling is to do with the drop in form of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has not scored in four PSG games. While this may not sound like a lot, for a man with as good a record as Zlatan, and as big an ego as him, it is enough to cause some unhappiness. He and Lavezzi may well miss the game tomorrow. So back a draw, and also get on under 2.5 goals at 1/1.

The Outsider: Basel to beat Liverpool at 14/5

Despite losing many of their best players year on year, Basel's dominance of Swiss football continues. They are top of the table after ten games, while Liverpool have had a very poor start to their Premier League season. The Reds were pegged back by a last minute Everton equaliser in the Merseyside derby. They have picked up just one point from their last three games, and were awful in their first Champions League game, where they needed a last-gasp penalty to see off minnows Ludogorets Razgrad.

Strange as it may seem against a team with five European Cup wins, Basel are the more experienced side at this stage. Only Steven Gerrard remains a regular for Liverpool from their last Champions League campaign, while Basel have featured at the group stage for four out of the last five years. Their home record is excellent, with ten wins from their last 17 home Champions League games and, with Liverpool's indifferent form, they look well worth a bet on Wednesday night.

The First Goalscorer: Jose Salomon Rondon for Zenit St Petersburg vs. Monaco at 4/1

Jose Salomon Rondon has got off to a fantastic start this season for free-scoring Zenit St. Petersburg. He has ten goals in fifteen games and has been a crucial part of Zenit's fantastic start to the season. They have won eight and drawn one in the league so far, scoring 26 goals. Rondon has great service with the likes of Hulk, Oleg Shatov, Victor Fayzulin and Danny, and it is no surprise that he is banging in the goals.

Zenit have a history of underachieving in this competition, but they face a fairly weak opponent in Monaco at the Petrovsky on Wednesday night. The men from the Principality lie twelfth in Ligue 1 and were pretty awful in a 1-0 home defeat to Nice at the weekend. With Falcao and James Rodriguez gone, the team is a strange mixture of over-the-hill stars and journeymen. Not quite what their billionaire owner had in mind. The defence is tired and slow, and the Venezuelan Rondon should be able to exploit this.