Champions League Second Leg Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Second legs of a home-and-home series are on the docket, and rather than try to find one or two sides worth backing we’re reaching into our bag of tricks and playing six matches, all over 2.5 goals.
Here’s the criteria: This week’s road team goes into the match looking to win 2-0. When road teams need two goals, chances come fast and furious. Some people will try and figure out which of the six is best value for money.
Not me, for a couple of reasons: first, since the system works over time, I’m happy enough to just go along; second, since I’m betting overs and betting a raft of them, if my bookie is analyzing my play, it makes me look like a SERIOUS sucker—and I love it when I get labeled that way.
Tuesday
Atletico Madrid vs. Panathinaikos over -125
Atlety won the first leg 3-2 in Greece. The away goals rule tells us that Panathinaikos need to try to score twice.
Debrecen vs. Levski Sofia over -115
Underdogs Debrecen won the first leg 2-1 in Sofia. The away goals rule tells us that Levski need to try to score twice.
Maccabi Haifa vs. Salzburg over +120
Maccabi Haifa won the first leg 2-1 in Salzburg. The away goals rule tells us that Salzburg need to try to score twice.
Wednesday
Arsenal vs. Celtic over, flat
Arsenal won the first leg 2-0. Both teams are scoring at will domestically, which is encouraging.
Olympiakos vs. Sheriff over -140
Olympiakos shot the sheriff (thanks Sid Seixeiro), while winning the first leg 2-0.
Stuttgart vs. Timisoara over -120
Stuttgart won the first leg 2-0.
Not catching our eye, despite a 2-2 first leg score line, is the match between Fiorentina and Sporting Lisbon. Lisbon will need to score eventually, but only need one goal, so they won’t mind a cagey first 60 minutes before opening it up.
Also failing our test is the Zurich-Ventspils match. Ventspils actually need three goals. The betting angle suggests that three goals is a bridge too far unless the price on offer is even money—it’s more like -175 so we’ll pass.
Bonus Pick – UEFA Super Cup
Barcelona (-1.5 +125) vs. Shakhtjor Donetsk
The game is at a neutral pitch in Monaco, but Barcelona is nearby so they will have a lot of support. Barcelona won last year’s Champions League, while Shakhtjor won the UEFA Cup.
Take a long look at Shakhtjor Donetsk on Friday getting more than one goal against a Barcelona team that has looked pretty tepid in the preseason. In the 11 years since this switched to a single-leg contest, the Champions League winner has only won four times.
Of those four wins, only two have been by more than a goal. The underdog opponents usually show up with a chip on their shoulder and the Champions League winners are unwilling to knock it off.
“Shakhtjor” is Russian for “miners”; taking these UEFA Cup winners +1.5 -140 here is literally striking gold. This is the big club from the Russian-speaking part of the Ukraine that has a good pedigree and they will not be intimidated by a hostile crowd.
I’ll take any excuse to bet against Barcelona, whom I hate with every fiber of my soul. The Miners’ track record and the trend in this game are more than enough.
Come on you miners!
Prediction: Barcelona 1, Shakhtjor Donetsk 1