Champions League: Tuesday Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
REAL MADRID (-1 +105; 2.5 flat) vs. AC MILAN
Real smoked Malaga 4-1 away and Milan beat a gutsy Chievo side 3-1 on Saturday.
This is a matchup of Champions League royalty. The trophy has been awarded 55 times. Real have nine cups, and Milan have seven. These clubs have a good relationship and have sold players back and forth.
That’s the key here: nobody wants to be embarrassed and this game is going to be tight. The total is too high. Go under 2.5 goals as the best bet this week.
Each team has played nine competitive matches this season. Real have conceded three goals total, including garbage time singles to Deportivo and Malaga after the matches were already won. Milan have surrendered a total of six goals, and are looking better every time out.
Real’s manager, the Special One, will again send out Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira as the two defensive midfielders to sit in front of the back four. The system won’t fool Milan, who saw city rivals Inter and Madrid’s current manager win everything there was to win with it last year. These are the group’s two best teams and the game will be played close to the vest.
Looking at the side, Milan are worth a bet just on mathematical principle—if we like the under, we have to like a dog getting one goal or more. This is less strong than the total, however: home teams in this competition get far more than their fair share of the referee’s love, even if Tuesday’s ref and Real’s manager have had bust-ups in the past. The total is where you want more of your money.
Thiago Silva suffered an ankle injury in the Chievo match and is a game-time decision for Milan. Milan manager Massimiliano Allegri has threatened to play five defenders across the back, and joked he might play six.
Pick: Real 1, Milan 0
ARSENAL (-0.5, -135; 2.5 ov-120) vs. SHAKHTJOR DONETSK
Arsenal beat Birmingham 2-1 on Saturday; Shakhtjor beat city rivals Metalurg 2-0 away on Friday.
Arsenal are the play here. The recent international break couldn’t come quickly enough for the Gunners: Arsenal had dropped their previous two EPL games to West Brom and Chelsea. Back on track with a win over Brum, the home-standing Gunners will be too much for the Miners from Eastern Ukraine.
We’re getting a decent price here because the Miners, like Arsenal, have won their first two group games. Arsenal have a better goal difference (+8 to +4), and both teams should come out of this group.
The real problem for the Miners, however, is that Arsenal will easily be the best opposition they’ve faced all season. The Ukranian League is having a down year—the country’s other powerhouse team, Dynamo Kyiv, lost away in Moldova three weeks ago in Europa League play. That’s a bad sign. The step up in class to play Arsenal will be too much for the visitors.
If you forced me to play the total, over goals is the bet, but I’m leaving it alone.
Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas looks to be back just in time from a hamstring pull to lead Arsenal’s attack. Strikers Nicklas Bendtner (groin) and Theo Walcott (ankle) are also in the picture after training Monday. Robin Van Persie (ankle), Bacary Sagna (thigh) and keeper Manuel Almunia head a long list of players still out for the Gunners.
Brazilian starlet Douglas Costa (thigh) remains out for the Miners.
Pick: Arsenal 3, Shakhtjor 0