Champions League: Tuesday Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
AJAX vs. REAL MADRID (pick -140, 2.5 goals ov-35)
Ajax drew PSV 0-0 and Real hammered Athletic Bilbao 5-1 on Saturday. On Matchday 1, Real beat Ajax 2-0 in Madrid.
This line is close to pick’em because Real have qualified for the next round. It’s also advertised as a trap game for the nine-time European champions with an away game in Barcelona next on the calendar. Don’t believe the hype: Real Madrid is the play.
That Barcelona game doesn’t kick off until Monday, so Real might as well use this one as a full rehearsal. A win here also seals first place in the group—a cash reward plus the right to play the second leg of the Round-of-16 matchup at home.
Ajax have struggled, both in the Champions League and in Holland of late. They have only the PSV draw to their credit in their last three league games. In that spell, Ajax lost to AZ and Den Haag.
The match between these teams in September was not nearly as close as 2-0 implies.
You’d think the total should go over, but I’m actually scared of it. Ajax are coming off a 0-0 draw, a rare beast in the Dutch League, and will start cautiously. Real Madrid could get ahead then just try to kill the game off. It’s likely over-or-nothing on the total, but it’s nothing for me.
Luis Suarez.Carvalho, Sami Khedira, and Gonzalo Higuain did not make the trip to Holland for Real as each picked up minor injuries against Athletic. Morata is up from the reserve system, but likely doesn’t play. Sergio Canales is more likely to see time. Karim Benzema likely starts up front.
Luis Suarez apparently dresses for Ajax. Ajax has suspended the World Cup bad boy after he bit PSV’s Ottman Bakkal on the weekend, but the fine print on the club discipline says it’ll be league matches only. We may see if he has a taste for Spanish cooking. The situation is fluid and Suarez could be dropped.
Pick: Ajax 0, Real Madrid 3.
CHELSEA (-2, evens; 3 goals over -120) vs. ZILINA
Chelsea lost 1-0 at Birmingham on Saturday; Zilina lost 2-1 at Senica on Friday. On Matchday 1, Chelsea beat homestanding Zilina 4-1.
Chelsea are going through a very rough patch, having lost three of their last four league games. None of those losses were to anyone special. That’s why they’re spotting the visitors two goals here instead of three or more.
Bet Chelsea anyway. Zilina aren’t Champions League quality, pure and simple. Zilina got a goal while being thrashed by Chelsea at home, and beyond that it gets even uglier. There’s a 3-0 loss away to Spartak Moscow, and 1-0 and 7-0 losses to Olympique Marseille.
For all Chelsea’s problems, the Blues still lead the Premier League on goal difference, and a win here locks up first place in their group. It’s going to be an emphatic win at a time when Chelsea need it most. If Zilina played in the English system, it would struggle to play in England’s second flight…easy pickings for Chelsea.
The side at -2 is better than the total here: Zilina is unlikely to score. Going against Zilina to score while laying no more than -125 is also attractive. If you can only lay -1.5, go as far as -175. If all you’ve got is the moneyline, you need a better soccer bookie, but for reference your breakeven price is about -650 on Chelsea.
Chelsea is without John Terry (thigh), Frank Lampard (tendon) and a few squad players. Peter Cech and Nicolas Anelka will be rested. This opens the door for others to impress, most notably teen starlet Josh McEachran. Fear not. The Blues are both deep and grouchy.
Pick: Chelsea 4, Zilina zilch.