Champions League: Tuesday Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
The Champions League starts its knockout stage with four games this week and these matches are the first legs of two-game, total goals (aggregate score) series.
AC MILAN (-0.5, -140) vs. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (2.5 goals flat)
Milan beat Parma 4-0 and Spurs beat Sunderland away 2-1 on Saturday.
Milan are the bet. The Italians looked a little shaky from mid-December to mid-January but they've tightened up the back since a 4-4 draw with Udinese. In the seven competitive matches since, Milan have surrendered three goals total while scoring 12.
A largely second-choice Spurs team showed some guts coming from behind on Saturday, but the key to this bet is that it's a weakened side again travelling to Milan. Spurs will be without superstar winger Gareth Bale. The line has already moved 20 cents, but that's not nearly enough. Bale is one of 15 or 20 players in the world who is truly irreplaceable to his team.
Rafael van der Vaart (calf) should go for Spurs at less than 100 percent, but he is at his most dangerous when the opposition is preoccupied by Bale. Luka Modric (appendix surgery) might be able to play in midfield but won't play the whole match. Jermaine Jenas is suspended.
Nicko Krancjar is showing nice form for Spurs but they're just not good enough to do the business on the road. Spurs did not win a road game in the Group Stage and won't be getting anything from this one.
Milan are missing parts too, most recently Andrea Pirlo who went down in Friday practice with strained knee ligaments. Pippo Inzaghi remains injured. Mark van Bommel and Antonio Cassano are ineligible (cup-tied to Bayern and Sampdoria respectively).
Milan are deep, however, and can still run out Robinho and Pato with Seedorf playing in the hole behind them. Rino Gattuso, Thiago Silva, and Mathieu Flamini will provide supply from midfield.
Pick: Milan 2, Spurs 0.
VALENCIA (-0.5, -140) vs. SCHALKE (2 goals, over -130)
Valencia beat Atletico Madrid away 2-1 and Schalke beat Freiburg 1-0 on Saturday.
Valencia are eating Barcelona's dust just like everyone else in Spain, but are in good form too and that's the bet here. Valencia have five wins and a draw from their last six games and look set to break down a Schalke side that is treading water in the German Bundesliga.
Since basically bailing out on the Copa del Rey, Valencia have won all four of their home matches and pretty much sewn up a Top 4 finish in the Spanish Liga. The team rallied to victory on Saturday, and hundreds of fans welcomed the club home in triumph.
Schalke aren’t like most Bundesliga clubs that go for goals. Schalke play conservatively on the road. This game is going to be about trying to hit on the counterattack.
All Valencia need to do is be patient. They’ll have 60 percent of possession and 1-0 to Valencia might actually suit both teams here as Schalke will be much more confident about scoring goals at home in the second leg.
The hype in this game all surrounds Schalke's forward Raul. He's returning to play on Spanish soil for the Germans after many years as Real Madrid's captain. In truth, another ex-Madrid man, Klaas Jan Huntelaar, may be a bigger scoring threat.
Valencia have no new absentees. Schalke won’t have Kyriakos Papadopolous and Anthony Annan.
Pick: Valencia 2, Schalke 0