Champions League: Tuesday Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
More first legs of two-game, knockout matches are on tap in the Champions League this week, with first-class clubs like Real Madrid, Chelsea, Inter, Bayern Munich and Manchester United battling for a spot in the quarterfinals. Our soccer writer pours over the odds dishes his favorite picks.
FC COPENHAGEN (2.5 goals under -135) vs. CHELSEA (-0.5, -130)
Copenhagen smoked Rosenborg Trondheim 5-0 in a friendly on Tuesday last week; Chelsea went out of the FA Cup on penalties to Everton on Saturday (0-0 FT; 1-1 AET).
There's a whiff of desperation about Chelsea, and the line has moved almost half a goal since Saturday's flat effort against Everton. The Champions League is the last chance for a trophy for The Blues.
Qualification for next year's shindig is an uphill climb. The manager's on the hot seat. Backroom rats have left the ship for Hamburger and Feyenoord. It's overblown and the number's moved enough that I'll bet Chelsea here.
They’ve struggled recently when their opposition has come out defensively—even Liverpool came out with five-at-the-back. Thing is, Copenhagen doesn't have that luxury. Nil-nil robs me of my money, but it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Copenhagen. The Danes need to be in front going into the second leg in England to have any chance of advancing.
So Copenhagen will attack at some point, and that'll play into Chelsea's wheelhouse. For all Chelsea's troubles, they’re still the superior team. Copenhagen haven't played a competitive match in months, and will find the going too tough.
Temperatures will be in the 20s for this match—not the best for Chelsea, but not horribly bad. Stay away from the total until you see the pitch condition on your TV set. If it looks bad, go under.
Copenhagen won’t have centre back Solvi Ottesen (back) but are otherwise at full strength. The Blues healthy in body if not in mind.
Pick: Copenhagen 0, Chelsea 2
OLYMPIQUE LYON (2.5 goals, flat) vs. REAL MADRID (-0.5 -120)
Lyon pulled away late to defeat Nancy 4-0 on Friday; Real eased past Levante 2-0 on Saturday.
The market gives Real Madrid too much credit on the road. The nine-time European Champions have been lights out at home this season, but have been up and down on the road. And Lyon only have one loss and seven goals conceded at home this year. The last time Real played a team with that sort of home form it was a 5-0 disaster.
Both teams have shaken off bad results from three weeks ago and are in fine form. If there's a psychological edge, it goes to Lyon: Lyon knocked Real Madrid out at this stage last season.
Try and find the +0.5 goals here when taking Lyon. It seems to me that any of the three results are almost equally likely—so you might as well get the home win and the draw both working in your favor.
Both teams are healthy. Ex-Lyon man Karim Benzema will desperately want to play for Real Madrid, but he's been so inconsistent this season, he'll almost certainly start on the bench. New loan signing Emmanuel Adebayor has been solid, and he'll lead Real's attack.
Pick: Lyon 1, Real 1