Champions League: Wednesday Preview and Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
AC MILAN vs. REAL MADRID (+133, 2.5)
Milan lost 2-1 to Juventus and Real beat Hercules 3-1 away Saturday. Real beat Milan 2-0 in Madrid on October 19.
Under goals in this matchup was our strongest bet of the last round. We had to sweat it, but it cashed. Under is once again the play, this time at a slightly better money adjustment.
Milan has been leaking goals lately but will tighten up here. Both teams would be satisfied with a draw and Milan should be able to force that issue by playing slowly and carefully. Real, as usual, with play with two defensive midfielders themselves - a draw will see the Spaniards into the next round and likely push them into a No. 1seed for the knockouts.
There may be a stray goal in this one but there’s no incentive for either side to get risky.
Angel Di Maria is a game-time decision for Real. Lass has been dropped from the traveling party.
Gazetta dello Sport indicates that Milan boss Massimiliano Allegri will bench Alexandre Pato and run a 4-3-1-2. Pippo Inzaghi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic start up front with Ronaldinho in the hole ahead of three defence-first midfielders to try to minimize the bleeding. If Pato comes in for a holding midfielder, Milan will mimic Real’s 4-2-1-3 setup.
Pick: Milan 0, Real 0
SHAKHTJOR DONETSK vs. ARSENAL (+167, 2.5)
Arsenal beat West Ham 1-0 and Shakhtjor beat Dnipro Dripropetrovsk 1-0 away Saturday. Arsenal hammered Shakhtjor 5-1 in London on October 19.
These teams are miles apart in quality. Shakhtjor looks great domestically but the Miners are simply not equipped to run with a team of Arsenal’s class. The Miners are the second-best team in a very weak group, but that’s of little consolation here.
Arsenal left it very late to sneak past West Ham on the weekend, but sometimes winning ugly is just what good teams do. Arsenal should find it easier going here, with the homestanding Miners eager to attack in front of a rabid crowd.
With temperature at kickoff in the low 50s, weather should not be an issue on a clear night.
Arsenal left Cesc Fabregas at home to rest his hamstring. Andrei Arshavin, Alex Song and Denilson are all question marks and any play from them is a bonus.
Douglas Costa played 45 minutes for the Miners against Dnipro in his first action in a month. Barring a setback, he’ll start up front but he’s nowhere near 100 percent.
Pick: Shakhtjor 0, Arsenal 2