Champions League: Wednesday Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
ARSENAL (2.5 goals, over -145) vs. BARCELONA (-0.5, -120)
Arsenal beat Wolves 2-0 and Barcelona drew Sporting Gijon away 1-1 on Saturday.
This game is going over and that's the strongest bet of the week. Both of these teams would rather lose 6-4 than win 1-0. As it turns out, neither loses very often. Bet the over, sit back, and enjoy what should be this round's most attractive game.
The only question is how to cash in. Over 2.5 -145, over 3 +115, and the Asian-style “over 2.75 goals at -110” are all pretty much equivalent. Just grab your best number. Barcelona have scored 71 goals in 23 league matches this season—more than three per game. Arsenal are scoring over two in England, with 56 goals in 26 matches. Barcelona have also coughed up 12 goals, while Arsenal have surrendered 27.
I'm not touching the side, but if you put a gun to my head, Arsenal +0.5 would be my choice. Barcelona are the best team in Europe right now, but the Spanish Liga looks like it's having a down year. The Gunners are second in England at the moment. Playing at home and getting a half a goal, I can't go against England's second best team even if it’s against Barcelona.
While various Arsenal players have said the club needs to be “rough” and get in Barcelona's face, I think both these teams will play a free-flowing style and enjoy not having the opposition kick lumps out of them. Arsenal captain Cesc Fabregas came up through Barcelona's youth team and is likely headed back there once his contract at Arsenal nears completion.
Samir Nasri, Arsenal's leading scorer, has overcome a hamstring injury to be declared fit for this match. Tomas Rosicky (groin) is also available. Abou Diaby (calf) is out. Barcelona is healthy and deep.
Pick: Arsenal 3, Barcelona 3
AS ROMA (-0.5 flat) vs. SHAKHTJOR DONETSK (2.5 goals under -135)
Roma lost 2-0 at home to Napoli on Saturday. Shakhtjor lost a friendly match 1-0 away to Karpaty Lviv on Monday last week.
This is strictly an angle play but here it is: I'm backing Roma because Shakhtjor haven't played a competitive game since Dec. 8, and haven't played a meaningful game since November. It's as simple as that.
Although the Ukranian league is technically a winter competition, no games are played from December through February. Shakhtjor have been trying to play friendlies to stay sharp. The opposition has been middling to weak (the best opponent might be Rosenborg), but regardless of opponent, no friendly match can prepare you for a knockout-stage road game in the Champions League.
Roma haven't exactly set the world on fire this season, but at least the players have been playing league matches against fully professional teams each week. Given equal prep, Shakhtjor are likely just as good as Roma. But this situation is not equal prep.
If this was a boxing match, Shakhtjor would have serious ring rust and been limited to the speed bag and sparring with opponents two full weight classes lower.
Pick: Roma 2, Shakhtjor 0