Champions League: Wednesday Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
INTER MILAN (pick -140) vs. BAYERN MUNICH (2.5 goals flat)
Inter defeated Cagliari 1-0 and Bayern beat Mainz 3-1 away on Saturday.
No clue who wins this one, but I'm pretty sure we'll see goals. Over we go. It's my strongest bet this week.
These teams went over 2.5 goals regularly in the Group Stage. Inter went over five times out of six; all six of Bayern's group games saw at least three goals. Both teams will approach this game positively, so we can guarantee scoring chances at both ends.
Domestically, Bayern have seen 76 goals in their 23 Bundesliga matches, an average of over three per match. Inter have seen 77 goals in 27 Serie A games: not quite three a game, but the third highest ratio in more defensively-minded Italy.
What's keeping this from being in bet-of-the-year category? Inter's dour win over Cagliari smells worse than a rotting meatball.
If you put a gun to my head I think the home side is more likely to get the last laugh, but with the total play shaping up so strongly, I'll take the over and that'll be enough. This game really can go either way.
A final word: if you expect a lot of goals, the draw actually gets poisonous. The only side I'm comfortable going against is the draw, and I'd fade that draw at -250 or better.
Pick: Inter 3, Bayern 2.
OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE (2 goals over -120) vs. MANCHESTER UNITED (pick -160)
OM beat St. Etienne 2-1, and a second-group Man United edged non-League Crawley Town 1-0 in the Cup on Saturday.
The Red Devils will not lose this match but with a total this low it's absolutely crucial that you find them at the pick-line. -175 is no drama; I'd make the price -210. The risk of a draw is heavy though, so if all you can get is Manchester United to win, you need +130 to be even remotely interested.
Man United did the business away in all three group games last autumn. In the EPL, the Red Devils have only one loss (an away shocker to Wolves). They shouldn't fall here. Marseille have only six wins from 11 Ligue-1 home games as it is; this will be the best opponent yet.
OM have massive issues up front. The three strikers in the first-choice 4-3-3 are all out. Loic Remy (ankle) will play if available but even if he goes look for OM to run an unfamiliar 4-5-1 and pray the wingers can get forward on or off the ball. Every attack will have to flow through Lucho Gonzalez.
MU are without Rio Ferdinand in central defense, but he won’t be missed as much against OM’s pedestrian attack. Ryan Giggs is unavailable in midfield, but he'd likely have staredt on the bench anyway. The Da Silva twins are fit.
Don't be scared of MU's struggles with Conference-division Crawley Town: MU basically sent out a reserve side. Further, Crawley Town have a secret money tree and have several players on Championship-level wages. In a league where clubs have open tryouts and most players earn less than $1,000 a week, Crawley Town spent $900,000 on transfers last summer.
Under 2.5 goals laying no more than -140 is intriguing, but this is going to be a game with no space that might be painful to watch. At two goals, under can never be bet, but I can't go over 2 either.
Pick: Marseille 0, Man United 1