Champions League: Wednesday's Best Bets
By Shawn Young
Wednesday wraps group play in the Champions’ League. Before we place our bets, here’s who is playing for what:
GROUP E: Bayern has won the group. Roma (nine points) and Basel (six points) each seek road victories to claim the other knockout berth. Cluj will finish last.
GROUP F: Nothing to see here. Chelsea has won the group and Marseille has qualified in second spot. Spartak will be third and head to the Europa League. Zilina is doomed to finish last.
Group G: Real Madrid will win the group, and AC Milan will be second. Ajax (four points) and Auxerre (three points) both hit the road with a Europa League spot at stake.
Group H: Shakhtjor (12 points), Arsenal (nine points, +9), and Braga (nine points, +4) are three teams alive for two spots. Partizan will be last.
CLUJ vs. ROMA (-0.5 -130; 2.5 goals under -125)
Cluj beat slumping Universitatea Craiova 2-1 Friday. Roma drew Chievo 2-2 away Saturday. On Matchday Two, Roma beat Cluj 2-1 in Rome.
Cluj has been outclassed in this tournament. The Romanian side has swapped managers after the last guy, Sorin Cartu, had a “Billy Martin” Moment in the dugout in last month’s game with Basel. Roma is going to make sure it advances by putting Cluj to the sword here again. There is a huge gulf in class between these teams and Roma is both the better side and the motivated one.
The total is a sneaky over bet as well: Overs should be favored. In five group matches each, there have been 19 goals in Roma games and 16 in Cluj games. Domestically, Roma has played 15 times, scoring 20 and shipping 20 for a total of 40 goals - not bad for Italy. Cluj has played 18 times in Romania, banging in 30 goals and coughing up 24 – 54 goals in total, a ratio of three goals per game. The side is stronger, but over 2.5 at plus money is one of those “edge bets” that if we make 100 times and win 55, the proof is in the profit.
Roma misses John Arne Riise (leg) and David Pizarro (flu).
Pick: Cluj 1, Roma 3
ARSENAL -2.5 flat, 3.5 goals under -120) vs. PARTIZAN
Arsenal edged Fulham 2-1 and Partizan smoked Sevojno 5-2 Saturday. Arsenal beat Partizan 3-1 on Matchday Two in Belgrade.
Arsenal has made a mess of its chances in this group with two shock losses after three comfortable victories. No matter: Arsenal gets it right here in a big way. Going back seven matches in all competitions, Arsenal has scored at least twice in six of those games. The opposition hasn’t been overwhelming (a choke job to Spurs in the North London derby is about it), but Partizan isn’t exactly great either.
Serbia, and formerly Yugoslavia, has a great soccer tradition, but the big clubs are no longer to be feared on the European stage. Most of the top players bolt the local league for bigger money in Western Europe at the earliest opportunity. This Partizan team is Serbia’s best, but would struggle mightily to stay in England’s second pro flight.
By the numbers, Arsenal on the -2.5 spread around -110 and over 3.5 goals at even money are roughly equal value. I’ll be splitting my stake in two and putting half on each. Do the best you can.
The usual absentees (Cesc Fabregas, Thomas Vermaelen, Abou Diaby Manuel Almunia) remain out for Arsenal. Johan Djourou (thigh) will be rested. Emmanual Eboue (knee, rested vs. Fulham) and Laurent Kocielny (suspected concussion) are available.
Pick: Arsenal 4, Partizan 0