Champs League: Tuesday Match Analysis & Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
Tuesday’s second legs are a time shifted treat. The game in Russia kicks off early, which that sets us up with a doubleheader to watch.
CSKA Moscow vs. Inter Milan (pick -140, 2 goals over -125)
CSKA postponed their weekend match against Zenit. Inter beat Bologna 3-0 on Saturday.
Inter won the first leg 1-0 at the San Siro on Wednesday.
Inter’s manager, the Special One, has been kind to us before. It’s time to trust him to put the proper game plan in again and watch the players execute it to perfection.
The key here is to get the game at pick’em. Eventually CSKA will have to open up and take lots of chances. Inter will get counterattack chances and I think that’s where the goals come from.
That said, if Inter is content with 0-0 late, we don’t want to hold losing tickets.
The total offers too much risk. If either team scores early, this thing flies over. At that point, we still want to be on the visitors.
CSKA has Evgeni Aldonin and Milos Krasic suspended. Uros Kosic is out through a leg injury.
Inter pick from virtually a full team with only oft-injured Davide Santon (knee) unavailable.
Pick: CSKA 0, Inter 1
Barcelona (-1.5 +115, 3 goals over -120) vs. Arsenal
Barcelona beat Athletic Bilbao 4-1; Arsenal beat Wolves 1-0 on Saturday.
The first leg was a 2-2 draw in London on Wednesday. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, scorer of both Barcelona goals, misses the return leg due to a calf injury.
I try never to bet against Barcelona because I hate the club so much and my vision is clouded. They’ll likely win this open, entertaining game. Before the prices came out I was all set to just bet the over. I figured Barcelona would be -1 and the total would be 2.5 over -130.
Not so—and that means I’m on Arsenal here +1.5. I’m rationalizing this as follows: no third place EPL team should be +1.5 goals anywhere to anybody. Arsenal are three points behind Chelsea in England and one point behind MU. Would either of those clubs get so little respect here? Unlikely.
Ibrahimovic is out. Oh, and I hate Barcelona.
Arsenal are going to have to smash and grab this series if they hope to win it. It’s probably not happening. But, like every child in Madrid, I’m allowed to have my dreams.
Barcelona’s Bojan Krkic steps in for Ibrahimovic. Krkic torched Bilbao for two goals on the weekend. Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol are suspended. Jeffren (calf) and Yaya Toure (ankle) are both doubtful.
Arsenal have a ton of injuries, with Alex Song (knee) the latest to be ruled out of this game. William Gallas and Andrei Arshavin still have calf strains picked up in the first leg. Robin van Persie (ankle) is still out too.
Pick: Barcelona 2, Arsenal 1