Confederations Cup: USA vs. Brazil Analysis and Pick
By SHAWN YOUNG
Brazil (-1.5, +110) vs. USA (total: 2.5 goals, ov-55)
Forecast: 62 degrees, with a chance of thundershowers
Both teams have already played a game in the tournament. Brazil blew a 3-1 halftime lead over African champions Egypt, but scored on a penalty in injury time to win 4-3 and avoid embarrassment. The USA, reduced to 10 men after a questionable straight red card to Ricardo Clark, were ripped apart by Italy in the final 30 minutes resulting in a 3-1 defeat.
This bet looks too easy, but we’re going to make it anyway: Let’s go over 2.5 goals laying the -155.
The Confederations Cup is a tournament where goals are usually scored in buckets. Both these teams’ initial games went comfortably over. We also have the luxury of a Brazil team who would rather play a flashy game and lose than play a boring style and win.
If your book is offering the total at three goals instead, going over 3 taking +110 is equivalent value. I can’t guarantee you four goals, but I can guarantee a lot of scoring chances.
If you’re seeing odds on the side only, bet Brazil for half the usual amount and use your free time to sniff around for a book that offers totals. Brazil -1.5 isn’t the end of the world as far as bets go, but matches such as this one really scream for a bet on the over. The over covers a 2-1 or 3-2 result, and since Egypt stuffed three goals past the Brazilians, the USA should at the very least see some opportunities.
Brazil will get plenty of chances themselves if they attack with width. The USA is always a well organized team, but Italy threatened the American goal repeatedly when they took the ball out wide.
The USA committed 19 fouls against Italy and the Brazilians are even better at ball control than Italy could hope to be. Bornstein and Onyewu had poor games in defense for the Americans against the Italians. If the USA gives Brazil anything close to 19 free kicks, Kaka and Company are going to stuff a few balls into the Americans’ net.
Prediction: Brazil 3, USA 1.