Books ready for Copa America
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Argentina and Brazil sit atop the Copa America Centenario oddsboard, and there’s a sizable gap between the two favorites and the rest of the field. But there are knocks against both of these South American giants, making the tournament ripe for bettors looking for a big price in the futures market.
The 45th edition of Copa America kicks off Friday night, with USA and Colombia meeting at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. It will be contested over the next three-plus weeks, culminating June 26 with the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.
Track goers are familiar with the term “second-itis,” a less-than-flattering description of a horse that can’t seem to win a race – he’s always finishing second. It also applies to the Lionel Messi-led Argentinians.
La Albiceleste has yet to win a major title since 1993. They lost in a penalty-kick shootout to host Chile in last summer’s Copa America final and to Germany in the final of the2014 World Cup in Brazil.
On paper, though, Argentina is the strongest side in this summer’s version of Copa America, a sentiment reflected in the betting market. They are the clear chalk, listed at 3-to-2 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and 2-to-1 at William Hill U.S.
There’s been more money bet on Argentina at the Westgate than on any other team, even though the side is second in ticket count behind Mexico (more on El Tri later).
Westgate oddsmaker Jeff Sherman, who opened Argentina at +225, said the team is taking by far the largest wagers at his shop.
Said Sherman, “I understand why everyone’s betting Argentina – Neymar’s not playing for a weakened Brazil side, so when you’re looking at the top (of the oddsboard), you’re taking one of the teams and lessening them, so it’s basically shifting all of Brazil’s support to Argentina.”
That brings us to the El Canarinho. Barcelona, Neymar’s club team, insisted the star striker compete in only one international tournament this summer. Neymar chose the Olympics since they’re being held in Rio. But he’s not the only marquee name who won’t be on the field for Brazil at Copa America. Thiago Silva, Marcelo and David Luiz have all been left off coach Dunga's roster.
Brazil opened at 3/1 at the Westgate, but the lack of interest in backing it to win the tournament has driven the price to 9/2.
You still may not find that price enticing, and you may also not be interested in Argentina at its short number. So if not one of the favorites, then who?
Uruguay, Chile and Colombia are among the next logical bets, and if you’re a bookmaker in Las Vegas, you’ve probably written a lot of tickets on Mexico. El Tri represents easily the largest liability at both the Westgate and William Hill.
The ticket count on Mexico is almost twice that of Argentina at the Westgate, according to Sherman, and Adam Pullen, senior trader at William Hill, says a Mexico championship is “by far the worst case scenario” at his shop.
This surprises neither bookmaker; in fact, it always happens this way in soccer.
“They love betting their team and they do every game,” Pullen said of William Hill’s Mexican clientele. “We always need them to at least draw or lose – we’re always hoping that they don’t win.”
Anticipating this action, Pullen sets Mexico’s odds accordingly.
“We’re not trying to be ridiculously low, but (we are on) the low end of the market,” he said.
The same dynamic applies to the big-four sports in the U.S.
“We have so many books in northern Nevada, you’re probably not going to get the best odds on the Raiders or 49ers, the Sharks, the Giants, the Warriors, because we know we’re going to take so much money on those teams every year,” said Pullen “Why give them more when they’ll take a little less. That’s bookmaking 101.”
In addition to Mexico, William Hill is a “very small loser” on the USA, and while the book also loses on Haiti, Pullen isn’t losing any sleep over one of the longest shots on the board.
The Westgate is a winner on any result other than a Mexico or Argentina title.
Wither the hosts?
The USA opened in the +500 to +550 range offshore to win the Copa America, Sherman recalls, numbers indicating European bookmakers put too much weight on the tournament being played on American soil.
“I thought they were ridiculously short,” said Sherman, who opened the Stars & Stripes at 6/1.
While the USA has been steadily bumped to 10/1 at the Westgate, there haven’t been many takers on the home side at any price. Sherman doesn’t blame his customers.
“They’re used to hosting the Gold Cup with CONCACAF teams, not a tournament like this with all these South American teams,” Sherman said. “I think their odds should be higher – it would take probably 20/1 for me to play them.”
The lack of support for the USA is reflected in the odds movement for the tournament’s opening match. The USA was lengthened from +180 midweek on the three-way line to +190 at the Westgate, while Colombia went from +170 to +160 and the draw staying steady at +220.
Trends bettors will have hard time backing Jurgen Klinsmann’s men. The USA is 3-10-4 all-time against the Colombians and 1-3-2 since beating the South American side in the infamous match of the 1994 World Cup at the Rose Bowl.
A win at home over Colombia won’t surprise many people, but neither bookmaker we spoke to sees the USA winning the tournament.
“I don’t like their chances to win against the top clubs the South Americans are sending up here,” Sherman said.
Added Pullen. “I don’t think they can (win it). It wouldn’t surprise me to see them get to the semifinals (but) the heavyweights are going to be the ones fighting it out in the end. “
WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK COPA AMERICA FUTURES
COPA AMERICA 2016 ODDS
ARGENTINA 3/2
BRAZIL 9/2
CHILE 8/1
USA 11/1
COLOMBIA 10/1
MEXICO 8/1
URUGUAY 9/1
COSTA RICA 60/1
ECUADOR 30/1
PERU 60/1
PARAGUAY 80/1
VENEZUELA 100/1
JAMAICA 200/1
BOLIVIA 200/1
PANAMA 200/1
HAITI 500/1
GROUP A ODDS
USA 7/5
COLOMBIA 7/5
COSTA RICA 13/2
PARAGUAY 13/2
GROUP B ODDS
BRAZIL 1/3
ECUADOR 7/2
PERU 15/2
HAITI 60/1
GROUP C ODDS
URUGUAY 11/10
MEXICO EVEN
VENEZUELA 11/1
JAMAICA 20/1
GROUP D ODDS
ARGENTINA 10/21
CHILE 7/4
PANAMA 25/1
BOLIVIA 35/1
USA looks to rebound Tuesday
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
From a handicapping perspective, all the factors seem to be pointing in the USA’s direction for Tuesday night’s Copa America Centenario match against Costa Rica.
Bettors studying the game can check all these boxes on the American side of the ledger: trends, home-field advantage, injuries, revenge, bounce-back psychology and an extra day of rest.
Don’t count on a bargain, therefore, when it’s time to place your bet on the Stars & Stripes. After opening the USA as the -115 favorites on the three-way line, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook was dealing -125 the morning of the game.
Coming off a 2-0 loss to Colombia in the tournament opener Friday night, the USA finds itself in a virtual must-win Tuesday in Chicago. Jurgen Klinsmann’s side faces a Costa Rican squad it has dominated on American soil for nearly three decades. Also, the Central Americans are depleted on defense – goalkeeper Keylor Navas and center back Giancarlo Gonzalez are not on the Copa America roster as they deal with health issues, and Kendall Watson will miss the game after being red-carded during his team’s 0-0 draw against Paraguay on Saturday.
While the USA has not lost to Costa Rica at home in an official competition in 15 such matches dating back to 1989, it has dropped two straight against Los Ticos – 3-1 in a World Cup qualifier at Estadio Nacional in September 2013, and 1-0 in an international friendly in New Jersey last October. So, yes, the Americans have history and revenge on their side.
But this isn’t the same Costa Rican team with which the U.S. has pretty much had its way at home of late. The South Americans were impressive in the 2014 World Cup, lasting until the quarterfinals, where it took the Netherlands penalty kicks to oust them.
Westgate oddsmaker Jeff Sherman opened Costa Rica at 60/1 to win Copa America only after a significant downgrade due of the absence of Navas, who starts in goal for European champion Real Madrid.
“They could have been more of a threat considering the way the way they’ve been playing in international competitions,” Sherman said. But missing three difference makers on defense and facing a U.S. side that needs the game badly, “this is a tough spot for Costa Rica,” Sherman added.
How low can you go?
The total of last night’s Panama-Bolivia game jumped off the page. It opened at 2 goals, which isn’t crazy, but was bet down to 1.5, which feels ridiculously low, even for a soccer game.
Sherman understood why the number was there, saying two factors are combining to keep totals low at this point of Copa America: teams tending to play conservatively early in tournaments and the public basing its bets on what it has seen most recently – and what people have seen are a lot of low-scoring games.
Despite the 1.5-goal total, CG Technology took plenty of action on ‘under’ +120
Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG, said before the game, “We actually, believe it or not, need the ‘over.’ I think it’s people seeing such a small number and betting ‘under’ because a lot of times people like doing that, kind of a contrarian point of view. We need the total of that game more than (either side).”
Simbal’s shop got what it needed in the 54th minute, when Bolivian forward Juan Arce leveled the match at 1-1. Panama’s Blas Perez scored the game winner, his second goal of the match, in the 87th minute to help the few who bet ‘over’ 2 cash their tickets, too.
Big move on Colombia
Sharp soccer bettors saw a golden opportunity with Colombia on Friday night. The No. 3 team in FIFA’s world rankings opened at 9/5 at William Hill U.K., but the British bookmaker took three times as many bets on the South American side than on the USA, and Colombia’s odds were shortened to 7/5 before kickoff.
While 66 percent of the money wagered at CG was on Colombia, Simbal said his shop – like others in Las Vegas – moves its soccer lines in step with the global betting market (there simply isn’t enough money bet in Vegas on a tournament like this to make much of an impact). Colombia was down to +110 at CG by game time.
The Colombia win wasn’t a good decision for CG, but it wasn’t a big decision, either.
“Volume was in line to what we do on an above-average baseball game,” he said. “(USA-Colombia) did about the same as Yankees-Blue Jays did a couple of days before.”
Sherman said the Westgate wrote more action on the USA that night and offered a similar baseball comparison in terms of handle.
Watch out for Mexico
As we discussed in our Copa America Centenario preview, Mexico represents the largest liability in the futures market at more than one Vegas bet shop, including the Westgate.
El Tri’s odds to win the tournament have been lowered to 9/2 at the Westgate and 4/1 at CG. That made Mexico the second favorite on the oddsboard at each book behind Argentina (before Argentina’s 2-0 win against Chile last night).
In light of Mexico’s performance in a 3-1 win over Uruguay on Sunday night, as well as the key injuries facing top South American sides (Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Neymar, James Rodriguez) and pro-Mexican crowds filling Copa stadiums, it may be time to consider Mexico a serious threat to win the whole thing.
“Yes, given the circumstances of the other top teams, I definitely think they’re in play,” Sherman said. “The South American sides aren’t at full strength, and these games are almost like home games for them.”