EPL Best Bets - Week 23
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The English Premier League took a break last weekend for the fourth round of the FA Cup. It was a memorable few days of football, starting with League Two side Cambridge United holding Manchester United to a draw, earning a money-spinning replay for the club. However it was on Saturday that the FA Cup really went wild: Chelsea, 2-0 up against League One side Bradford City, ended up deservedly getting beaten 4-2 in one of the great shocks of recent years. Manchester City also went out at home to opponents from a lower division, as Championship high-flyers Middlesbrough beat a tired-looking City team 2-0.
Chelsea will play Spurs in the League Cup final, as the Blues saw off Liverpool in a tense semi-final second leg. Spurs survived a scare against third-tier team Sheffield United to book their place at Wembley.
Let's handicap Week 23 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Southampton to beat Swansea at 3/5
Sunday’s late game is an appealing looking encounter between two sides who play attractive football and have overachieved in the first half of the season. However, I’m predicting a drop off for Swansea in the remaining months. The sale of Wilfried Bony, by far their best player, will hit them hard and they were awful in their last league game, a 5-0 home defeat to a rampant Chelsea.
Southampton have won five of their last six league games and, although they exited the cup against Crystal Palace, they still come into this fixture with confidence high. Their home form (W7 D2 L2) is fantastic, while Swansea have picked up just 9 of their 30 points this season on the road. Even if 3/5 is a short price, they’re still worth a bet.
The Solid Bet: Chelsea to draw with Manchester City at 5/2
The build-up to this, by a mile the biggest game of the season so far, has been dominated by the three-match ban for Diego Costa. Chelsea, who were a shade of odds-on for this match two weeks ago, have drifted out to 23/20. While the absence of Costa will certainly have an effect on Chelsea going forward, their record without him (two wins and a draw) in the league is surprisingly good. Man City have their own selection problems, and Sergio Aguero has not come back from injury in the best of form.
Chelsea lead the Premier League by five points with 16 matches to go. Many of their fans would settle for a draw in this game, and City may view this as a ‘must-not-lose’ rather than a must-win. This means that the best play is the 5/2 available on a draw, as happened the previous time these teams met. Chelsea-City games tend to be quite cagey, and there is little reason to suggest this one will be different.
The Outsider: West Bromwich Albion to beat Tottenham Hotspur at 19/10
Tony Pulis’s sides have historically had fantastic home form. He made the Britannia Stadium a fortress in his time at Stoke City, and his record at home for Crystal Palace last season was W7, D1, L4. His new side, West Brom, welcome a Spurs team who, to be frank, have been quite lucky all season. Away from home, they have managed to win five games, but have rarely been the better team. They will also be very tired from an intense League Cup semi-final against Sheffield United on Wednesday, where they only secured qualification to the final with two minutes to go. West Brom won their first game at The Hawthorns under Pulis 1-0 against Hull, and that scoreline looks very possible again on Saturday.
The First Goalscorer: Didier Drogba for Chelsea vs Manchester City at 9/2
In the three games where Diego Costa has been missing for Chelsea, his deputy, Didier Drogba, scored in two of them. He is the ultimate big-game player, and even at the age of 36, his goal at Old Trafford demonstrated that he still turns it on when it really matters. Manchester City’s defence has always been susceptible to some bad performances, and Drogba can exploit that. He has scored six goals already this year from a limited number of minutes on the pitch. Possible rivals, such as Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko, are short of form, and at 9/2 Drogba is a fair bet to break the deadlock in this enormous fixture.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City Betting Lines and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Chelsea and Manchester City face off in west London on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC) in what is being billed as the biggest match of the Premier League season so far.
Although it is a little early for title deciders, five points separate the two sides at the top of the league, with the champions traveling to the leading contenders. Chelsea had to work hard for their place in the Capital One Cup final midweek, beating Liverpool 1-0 after extra time.
Branislav Ivanovic scored the only goal in an entertaining match at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday. This result followed up a shock defeat in the FA Cup for Jose Mourinho’s men, with the Blues leading 2-0 against Bradford City before losing 4-2 in what is possibly the biggest upset in the competition's history. William Hill U.S. has Chelsea priced at -105 odds to win and increase their lead over City to eight points.
Despite going through a shaky period themselves, going three matches without a victory, Manuel Pellegrini will know the importance of claiming the win this weekend, with City looking to reduce the gap at the top of the league. Last time out Man City were beaten 2-0 by Middlesbrough in the FA Cup at home. This defeat followed up another loss at home to Arsenal. William Hill U.S. prices them at +290 odds to pull of the upset, with the draw offered at +255.
The total in Las Vegas is 2.5 goals, with OVER priced as the -120 favorite.
When these two sides met earlier in the season, they played out a 1-1 draw with Frank Lampard coming to City’s rescue to score a late equalizer and break the hearts of Chelsea fans. Lampard is expected to play a part in the match on Saturday, in what could be an emotional return to Stamford Bridge. City have dominated head-to-head in recent years, winning seven of their last 11 games, losing only twice, and they will hope to extend that run this weekend.
Although the influential Yaya Toure is missing due to being at the African Cup of Nations, City should have enough to restrict the Blues who may be slightly fatigued from the midweek match.
Diego Costa won't be involved due to his three-match suspension, which is a huge loss for Mourinho's side. There are also doubts over midfielder Cesc Fabregas after the former Arsenal man picked up an injury midweek.
With this in mind, backing Manchester City at plus a half-goal (-115) at William Hill U.S. seems to offer some value. City know defeat will not be an option, with a Chelsea win meaning they will have a mountain to climb to retain their title but a draw -- although far from ideal for the visitors -- wouldn't be the worst result for either side with plenty of games still to play.
Pellegrini’s side have been superb on the road in recent weeks, staying unbeaten in their last seven, winning five of those matches, including victories against Roma, Southampton and West Brom.