Weekly European Soccer Betting Analysis
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
The busy and exciting world of European soccer can sometimes be difficult to navigate for bettors. Monty Andrews takes a look at some of the most important news stories, odds, key injuries, and betting trends to help with your footy wagers.
Fixture of the Week: Manchester City vs. Liverpool
Two teams off to hot starts will tangle Saturday as Manchester City faces Liverpool in the marquee matchup of the English Premier League schedule. Man City is installed as the -125 favorite on Bet365, but will need to correct its recent woes against Liverpool (+300); the visitors have two wins and a draw in the previous three league meetings, with Man City scoring just once over that span. Both teams have accrued seven points through the first three weeks of league play, while Liverpool is rolling with clean sheets in six of their previous seven league matches dating back to last season.
Valencia Victimized Again?
Valencia have to be pleased with having earned four out of six points to open the La Liga campaign - but earning an additional three points this weekend will be a monumental task even with home-pitch advantage. Valencia comes in as a +275 underdog against an Atletico Madrid unit (+105) that has dominated the head-to-head series of late, winning four straight league meetings and outscoring Valencia 10-2 in the process. Atletico has shown one of the most potent offenses in the league so far, racking up seven goals through their first two games. They're also unbeaten in 13 consecutive La Liga road fixtures.
Will Bayern Hassle the Hoff(enheim)?
Hoffenheim has one of the most impressive active streaks in Bundesliga - but that sensational run will be put to the test as they lock horns with powerhouse Bayern Munich. The visitors (-223) have shown trademark form through two league games, outscoring foes by a 5-1 margin without working up much of a sweat. But Hoffenheim (+600) will be no pushover despite long odds, having earned points in 18 consecutive league home games while keeping a clean sheet in five of their last six in friendly confines. The teams have split their previous two meetings, with each team prevailing 1-0;
Fireworks on the Foro Italico
Expect plenty of offensive action this weekend at Stadio Olimpico, as Lazio hosts unbeaten AC Milan in Week 3 of Serie A play. Lazio, listed at +140 on Bet365, has been quiet at the offensive end through two games but has relied on a solid defensive showing to earn four points. AC Milan (+187) has opened its ledger with consecutive victories, scoring five times in that stretch while conceding just one. Lazio has played above a 2 1/2-goal total in 10 of their previous 11 league matches, while AC Milan has gone over that threshold in each of their previous four Serie A tilts.
Player News
Paris-Saint Germain's loss is Tottenham's gain, as French international Serge Aurier prepares to make his English Premier League debut this weekend. Spurs (+100) are expected to have Aurier in the lineup against Everton (+275) after the 24-year-old right back bolted PSG earlier this summer for not being "respected at my fair value."
Time continues to tick away without world mega-star Lionel Messi formally putting his signature on a new contract with Barcelona. Team president Josep Maria Bartomeu insists that Messi has already signed the deal, but Messi hasn't confirmed whether that is the case. Barcelona are overwhelming -700 faves on Bet365 this weekend against visiting Espanyol (+1,400).
Wolfsburg added some scoring punch over the international break, signing Belgian international Divock Origi from Liverpool on a one-year loan transfer. Origi, who scored 21 goals in 77 games with the Reds, is expected to provide a much-needed boost for Wolfsburg, which is listed by Bet365 at -125 in this week's home encounter with Hannover 96 (+333).
Sampdoria has added depth to its back end with the signing of Ivan Strinic to a two-year deal following a transfer from Napoli. Strinic, who made just 12 starts last season, is expected to be in the running for a full-time role with Sampdoria, which finds itself a +280 home underdog for its Saturday showdown with Roma.
Key Injuries
Those hoping to see Nathaniel Clyne back in the Liverpool lineup anytime soon will be disappointed to learn the right full-back is expected to miss the remainder of the calendar year with a significant back injury. Clyne, who injured himself in a mid-July friendly with Tranmere Rovers, was left off the Reds' entry for the upcoming Champions League.
Real Betis (+350) might have to do without skilled forward Sergio Leon, who is dealing with a nagging thigh injury and is considered questionable for this week's game against host Villarreal (-125). Leon, who scored in his first game with the club, has been practicing on the side and had an extra week to rest thanks to the international break.
Borussia Dortmund fans' fears were confirmed earlier this week when star midfielder Marco Reus was left off the team's UEFA Champions League roster. Reus is still recovering from a serious knee injury suffered back in May, and is hoping to return early in 2018 for Dortmund, a -275 favorite on Bet365 for this weekend's showdown with host SC Freiburg (+700).
Versatile right-back Joao Cancelo will be out of Inter Milan's lineup for the foreseeable future after suffering a torn MCL in his right knee during a training session with the Portuguese national team. Cancelo is expected to miss at least a month of action for Inter Milan, which is installed as a heavy -400 fave against visiting Spal this weekend.
Betting Trends
Arsenal have turned half-time draws into full-time victories in five of their previous six English Premier League matches. The Gunners are listed at +300 on Bet365 to do just that Saturday against visiting Bournemouth.
Deportivo La Coruna have gone above the 2 1/2-goal total in their last four matches, while six of Real Sociedad's previous seven contests have finished above the threshold. The teams are -112 to repeat the feat in their Sunday tilt.
Schalke 04 have played under the 2 1/2-goal total in 10 of their previous 12 home games. Bettors are being given +100 odds from Bet365 that Schalke and VfB Stuttgart will score fewer than three combined goals Sunday.
Cagliari has prevailed in both half- and full-time in each of their previous four home games. They're installed at +160 to make it five straight double home wins against Crotone.