Weekly European Soccer Betting Analysis
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
Fixture of the Week: Watford v. Manchester City
There are just three unbeaten teams left in the English Premier League - and two of them square off this week Vicarage Road as Watford host Manchester City on Saturday. The Hornets are off to a sensational start with two wins and two draws through four games, but haven't garnered much faith from oddsmakers this week; they're installed as +700 longshots by Bet365. But Watford are rolling after blanking host Southampton 2-0 last week, and have surrendered just three goals through their first four games. Man City (-300) sit tied atop the table with rival Manchester United, having earned 10 of a possible 12 points through four contests.
It's Getting Real
It has been an inauspicious start to the season for a Real Madrid side still having to make do without Cristiano Ronaldo - and this week's test will be a difficult one as they visit unbeaten Real Sociedad on Sunday. Real Madrid (-163) is a heavy favorite on Bet365 despite opening the season with just five of a possible nine points; with Ronaldo still serving a suspension for pushing a referee, his side has managed six goals through its first three matches of the season while surrendering three. Real Sociedad (+400) will be a worthy opponent in this one, having racked up 10 goals en route to three consecutive season-opening wins.
Bayern Bounceback?
Fresh off a stunning 2-0 loss at Hoffenheim, Bayern Munich look to rebound - and take control of a crowded Bundesliga table - as they host Mainz on Saturday. The defending league champions looked on form in back-to-back triumphs to open the season, but were thoroughly outplayed by the hosts last week, handing Hoffenheim their second straight win in the head-to-head meeting following 17 consecutive losses. Bayern is an overwhelming -800 favorite this week against Mainz (+1,800), which opened the season with back-to-back losses but are coming off a 3-1 triumph over Bayer Leverkusen.
Re-Juvenated?
It has been a rough week for Juventus, which were outclassed in their Champions League encounter with Barcelona and now face a quick turnaround with a Serie A match at Sassuolo. Fortunately for manager Massimiliano Allegri, the visitors (-200) are heavy favorites after opening the domestic campaign with three consecutive victories and a +8 goal differential. Juventus will very likely need a win to keep pace atop the table, with Napoli and Inter Milan also considered locks to remain unbeaten after this week. Sassuolo (+600) are reeling after being outscored 5-1 in consecutive road losses to Torino and Atalanta.
Player News
Manchester United Jose Mourinho was less than pleased with his team's lackadaisical effort after building a comfortable lead in their 3-0 Champions League victory over Basel, comparing his players' tactics to "PlayStation football." Man United is installed as a -250 favorite in Saturday's encounter with visiting Everton.
All-world midfielder Isco has signed a lucrative five-year contract extension with Real Madrid, which includes a whopping 700-million-Euro buyout. The 25-year-old, who now signed on with the La Liga powerhouses until 2022, is listed at +175 on Bet365 to score this weekend against Real Sociedad.
Napoli manager Maurizio Sarri came under fire for not starting midfielder Jorginho against Champions League foe Shakhtar Donetsk - but there might have been a good reason for that. Jorginho's agent said his client is in "excellent condition", but was dealing with a minor foot injury; Napoli is a -900 favorite this weekend versus Benevento.
A Champions league win over Anderlecht this week did little to quell rumors that Bayern Munich bench boss Carlo Ancelotti will be replaced soon, as fans still deal with last week's stunning league loss to Hoffenheim. But oddsmakers are undeterred, with Bayern (-600) still the overwhelming favorite to finish atop the Bundesliga standings.
Key Injuries
Manchester United will be without one of its key players for this weekend's tilt with Everton. Team captain Paul Pogba is expected to miss a couple of weeks after suffering a hamstring injury in his side's 3-0 rout of Basel.
Sevilla midfielder Guido Pizarro is a question mark for this weekend after being subbed out late in the first half of his team's Champions League draw with Liverpool with a calf injury. Sevilla is +130 on Bet365 for its domestic match with Girona (+230).
Mattia De Sciglio is hoping to return to action this weekend. The veteran right-back suffered a thigh injury in the first half and was forced out of Juventus' loss to Barcelona earlier this week.
Bundesliga co-leaders Borussia Dortmund will be without captain Marcel Schmelzer for up to six weeks after he suffered an ankle injury in last week's draw with Freiburg. Dortmund is -400 against visiting Cologne (+1,100) on Sunday.
Betting Trends
Swansea have played below 2.5 goals in each of their last seven road games in EPL play. Swansea is listed at +140 on Bet365 to extend that streak to eight this weekend against Tottenham Hotspur.
Las Palmas have rewarded bettors who have put their faith in the opposing team, losing at both half and full time in each of their last three home league matches. You'll get +300 odds from Bet365 on it happening this weekend versus Athletic Bilbao.
Goals a-plenty have been the order of match day at Stadio Artemio Franchi of late, with Fiorentina having played over 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 games. This week's Fiorentina-Bologna match carries -154 odds of going over.
The payoff isn't great (-1,600), but you would be wise to consider taking Dortmund to win or draw this weekend against visiting Cologne. Dortmund has earned at least a point in its last 35 home tilts in Bundesliga play.