Weekly European Soccer Betting Analysis
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
Fixture of the Week: Liverpool v. Manchester United
It's a battle of English Premier League powers this weekend as Liverpool host Manchester United looking to make up some of the seven-point gap between the clubs. Liverpool and Manchester United have identical +162 odds to win on Bet365; the host side is coming off a 1-1 draw with Newcastle in its last league fixture, but has earned points in 28 of its previous 30 EPL matches. Man United shares top spot atop the league table with rival Man City, with just one goal separating the teams in total differential. They've won three straight league games, most recently a 4-0 drubbing of Crystal Palace.
Can Barca Keep Filling the Net?
Barcelona has predictably been the class of La Liga, particularly on the offensive end - but the unbeaten powerhouse will be in tough to continue its net-filling ways as it visits Atletico Madrid on Saturday. Barca (+145) are only a slight favorite on Bet365 to win their eighth consecutive match to kick off the season, despite owning an incredible plus-21 goal differential over that stretch. Host Atletico (+175) have been one of the premier defensive clubs in the early going, allowing just four goals through their first seven matches. They've lost just three times in their last 38 games at home.
Dynamic Dortmund Facing Stiff Test
Borussia Dortmund puts their four-game Bundesliga winning streak on the line this weekend against a game Leipzig roster. Dortmund (-188) comes in as a comfortable favorite after opening the season with six victories, one draw and a sparkling plus-19 goal differential. But Leipzig (+475) is not expected to be a pushover in this one, coming in with momentum following consecutive victories over Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Cologne. That said, Dortmund has earned points in 37 consecutive Bundesliga matches - and is -600 to do the same Saturday.
Serie A Showdown
Two of the top teams in Serie A square off Saturday afternoon as table-leading Napoli face host Roma. The visitors (+140) are off to a blistering start, having won seven consecutive matches to open the season while outscoring opponents 25-5 along the way. Roma haven't quite gotten untracked offensively but have been elite in their own end so far, surrendering just four goals through six matches. It's a critical match for fifth-place Roma, who sit six points behind Napoli in the crowded Serie A table. They would also like to reverse a trend that has seen the visiting team win the last two encounters.
Player News
Manchester United striker Romelu Lukaku is expected to be in the lineup this weekend as he recovers from an ankle injury. Lukaku missed Belgium's World Cup game against Bosnia and Herzegovina last week, but returned to face Cyprus on Tuesday.
Barcelona is keeping Andres Iniesta around for a very, very long time after signing the veteran midfielder to the team's first-ever "lifetime" contract. The 33-year-old is 128 games shy of passing Xavi for the most appearances in a Barcelona uniform.
Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski was the man to watch in World Cup qualifying, establishing a UEFA record for the format with 16 goals for Poland. Bayern is a whopping -1,400 favorite on Bet365 this weekend against Freiburg (+2,000).
AC Milan star Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this week's match against Inter Milan after picking up a red card versus Roma. AC Milan is installed at a +230 road underdog on Bet365 against rival Inter (+110).
Injury Updates
Liverpool will be without one of its key players against Manchester United, after winger Sadio Mane suffered a hamstring injury while playing for Senagal. The 25-year-old is expected to miss the next six weeks.
Real Madrid superstar Gareth Bale returned to training this week after avoiding a serious calf injury. There's an outside chance Bale could return to action for Real Madrid (-400) this weekend against host Getafe (+900)
Bayern netminder Manuel Neuer has had a setback in his recovery from a major foot injury, and is now expected to be on the sidelines until March. Neuer was initially hoping to return in January from the foot injury he suffered last September.
Torino striker Andrea Belotti will miss the next 3-4 weeks after damaging ligaments in his right knee. It's a crushing blow to Torino, who are slight -106 favorites this weekend versus host Crotone (+290).
Betting Trends
Poor Crystal Palace are still looking for their first goal of the EPL season, having been on the wrong end of seven consecutive clean sheets to open the campaign. Visiting Chelsea are listed at -110 on Bet365 to make it eight straight shutouts.
Real Sociedad have seen plenty of action this season, having gone over the 2.5-goal total in nine straight matches dating back to the end of the 2016-17 campaign. They're -118 to extend that run this weekend against Alaves.
Ties are fun! And Wolfsburg has cornered the market, having drawn in each of their last three league matches. If you're feeling particularly adventurous, you'll get +300 odds on a fourth straight tie against host Bayer Leverkusen.
Napoli have been unstoppable on offense, scoring three or more goals in 11 consecutive Serie A matches. You'll get +275 odds on Bet365 if Napoli keeps the streak alive against Roma.
Saturday's Best Bets
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
English Premier League
All eyes will be on Anfield this Saturday (NBCSN, 7:30 a.m. ET) as Liverpool (+165) will look to cool off Manchester United (+170) in front of its supporters. The Reds haven’t had a great start (3-3-1) in league play but they’ve been much better at home (2-1-0), especially on the defensive side of the ball (6-1 GD). United owns a 2-1-0 mark away from home and if there is a silver lining, the Red Devils have only allowed two goals this season and they both came on the road. These clubs played to a pair of draws (1-1, 0-0) last season and backing another tie offers a solid return (+225). Even though the season is still young, this could be viewed as a must-win spot for Liverpool but not having forward Sadio Mane leaves a big hole on offense.
The Reds were great against the top clubs last season and I believe United’s incredible start has to cool off eventually. Plus, this will be the first of four games in 10 days for Manchester. Lastly, you can’t ignore the fact that Jurgen Klopp is 3-3-1 all-time against Jose Mourinho.
Best Bet: Liverpool +165
Best Bet: Manchester United Under 1.5 Goals (-180)
While United has been incredible through seven games, it remains the second betting choice at 5/2 in the EPL future markets behind Manchester City (2/3). The Citizens are tied with United in the table with 19 points while outscoring opponents 22-2 in seven games. Stoke City (+1800) will visit Etihad Stadium on Saturday (10:00 a.m.) and the oddsmakers don’t expect them to stand a chance vs. City (-775). I strongly agree but I also believe the total (3 ½) is a tad inflated and Manchester is still expected to be without striker Sergio Aguero. The Potter held Manchester to a scoreless draw on the road last season and they’ve only surrendered four goals in three away league games thus far. With Napoli coming to town Tuesday for a Champions League match, I’m betting the City offense won’t be as explosive this week.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
Along with the Manchester clubs, other teams getting recognized in the EPL futures market are defending champions Chelsea (8/1) and Tottenham (14/1).
The Blues have been installed as heavy road favorites (-260) this Saturday (NBSCN, 10:00 a.m.) when they visit the worst team in the league, Crystal Palace (+715). Chelsea is unbeaten on the road (3-0) this season and its netted eight goals in those victories. Palace still hasn’t managed to score in seven league games and that’s certainly contributed to its 0-7 record.
Chelsea is very banged up but is still expected to pick up points with its depth and experience. Rather than play the side or total, I’m backing the Eagles to put at least one in the back of the net and Chelsea should do so as well.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (+115)
Tottenham (-550) remains third in the EPL table despite not winning (0-2-1) a game at Wembley Stadium, which continues to be an issue for the club. The Spurs have only scored two goals in those games compared to 12 on the road. Bournemouth (+1200) visits as a heavy underdog on Saturday (CNBC, 10:00 a.m. ET) and the Cherries have been very disappointing this season (1-1-5), especially after finishing in ninth place last year. The club did just draw (0-0) with Leicester at home and I believe they should be prepared after the break for this matchup. Knowing Tottenham heads to Real Madrid on Tuesday for a CL game, I’m going to play the look-ahead angle again and expect a boring win for the Spurs.
Best Bet: Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
German Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund extended its lead in league play to five points over Bayern Munich and its goal differential of plus-19 (21-2) remains eye opening. Despite sitting in second place, Bayern remains the favorite (1/3) over Dortmund (9/4) and it will be looking to snap a winless streak this Saturday with Jupp Heynckes returning to the club as their new manager.
Rather than playing their league games this week, I would look for both clubs to put up crooked numbers in next week’s Champions League game. Dortmund hasn’t won yet in this event (0-2) and if it believes it can catch up to Real Madrid or Tottenham in Group H, it needs to post an impressive win at APOEL next Tuesday. Bayern sits at 1-1 and is tied with Celtic in Group B as they welcome the Scottish club to Allianz Arena on Wednesday.
Spanish La Liga
Instead of picking on minnows this weekend, Barcelona (+150) will face its toughest of the season when it meets Atletico Madrid (+185) on the road and the recent politics in Spain will make this trip even tougher for the visitor. Barcelona is 7-0 through seven games and Atletico is also unbeaten (4-3-0) but three draws on the road have the club sitting tied for third place in La Liga.
At home, Atletico has gone 2-0 and hasn’t allowed a goal in those games. Barca has only surrendered two goals overall and they bring a 3-0 road mark to Wanda Metropolitano (beINSports, 2:45 p.m. ET) on Saturday.
Barcelona has gone 6-2-0 in the last eight league meetings against Atletico and we’ve only seen two clean sheets posted during this span. While I’m tempted to take a shot on the draw (+240), the better wager is expecting both teams to hit the back of the net.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (-140)