Champions League - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The Champions League returns this week as the last 16 teams in Europe’s Premier club competition face three knockout rounds and a final to see who will be crowned champion. The current favourite is Bayern Munich at 5/2, just a shade ahead of the 11/4 holders Real Madrid. After Real come Barcelona, while Chelsea are the fourth favourites at 7/1. Bookies consider these to be the front-runners. Outsiders such as Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund are 14/1 and 33/1 respectively, while Manchester City are chalked up at 16/1.
Let's handicap UEFA Champions League: Round of 16.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Real Madrid to win at Schalke 04 at 4/9
Schalke are a strange team: they have enough money to keep them somewhere near the top table of European football, qualifying for the Champions League and regularly getting out of their group, but are always so badly deficient in certain areas that they are often on the end of thrashings when they come up against the best. Schalke lost this fixture 6-1 last year, and also lost 5-0 at home to Chelsea on matchday 5 of the group stages this season. Schalke were rather fortunate to make it out of an easy group, and there is no reason Real Madrid cannot finish this tie in the first leg. The La Liga table-toppers had a stutter after the winter break in Spain, but got back on track with a 2-0 win over Deportivo La Coruña. At 4/9 they are a very safe bet.
The Solid Bet: PSG to draw with Chelsea at 9/4
This is a repeat of last year’s quarter-final, where Chelsea squeezed through on away goals thanks to Demba Ba scoring in the 88th minute of the second leg. Nearly a year on, Chelsea have progressed massively and sit seven points clear at the top of the Premier League, while PSG have stagnated, or arguably regressed. Despite having by far the biggest budget in French football, the Parisians sit third in Ligue 1. They managed to throw away a two-goal lead at home to lowly Caen in the last few minutes at the weekend. Both they and Chelsea are 9/5 shots at the Parc des Princes. While Chelsea may be the better value, a draw is a better result for them than for PSG, so it may be worth taking the stalemate at 9/4 Mourinho is an expert in digging results out of matches like these, and if the scores are level going into the last 15 minutes, you can bet Mourinho will tell his troops to sit back and take the draw.
The Outsider: Manchester City to beat Barcelona at 5/2
Being seven points behind Chelsea, this tie could be make-or-break for City’s season. They faced Barcelona at the same stage last season, and lost 2-0 at home, but only after Martin Demichelis had been sent off at 0-0. City put in a respectable performance to lose 2-1 in the Nou Camp. While they should not be favourites for this game, they are perhaps longer than they should be at 5/2. Barcelona’s La Liga form has been fantastic lately, while City’s league form has dipped, but this should not sway bettors too much. City’s season was transformed by their unlikely qualification away to Roma for the knockout round of this competition, and if they can recapture that kind of performance, they can give Barça a good game.
The First Goalscorer: Arjen Robben for Bayern Munich at Shakhtar Donetsk at 9/2
Arjen Robben has outscored every other Bayern Munich player in the Bundesliga this year with 14 goals, and he looks a good bet at 9/2 to open the scoring for the Bavarians away to Shakhtar Donetsk. Big summer signing Robert Lewandowski has scored just eight, and Robben has a magnificent record in the Champions League, including scoring the winner in the final for Bayern in 2013. Shakhtar will be hugely unsettled by the conflict in their native Eastern Ukraine - which they have had to vacate for the foreseeable future. Bayern should have few problems here.