EPL Notebook - Week 22
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Future Market
After this weekend, there will only be 16 weeks left in the Premier League season and oddsmakers at 5Dimes.eu still have Chelsea listed as the odds-on favorite at minus-165 (Bet $100 to win $60). Right behind the Blues are Liverpool (6/1) and Tottenham (7/1), who are both within striking distance. Arsenal (11/1), Manchester City (14/1) and Manchester United (21/1) haven’t been ruled out by the oddsmakers but they all face uphill battles.
Week 22 Slate
Saturday, Jan. 22
Swansea City at Liverpool (NBCSN, 7:30 a.m.)
Watford at Bournemouth (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Everton at Crystal Palace (CNBC, 10:00 a.m.)
West Ham United at Middlesbrough (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Manchester United at Stoke City (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Sunderland at West Bromwich Albion (NBCextra, 10:00 a.m.)
Tottenham at Manchester City (NBC, 12:30 p.m.)
Sunday, Jan. 22
Leicester City at Southampton (NBCSN, 7:00 a.m.)
Burnley at Arsenal (NBCSN, 9:15 a.m.)
Hully City at Chelsea (NBCSN, 11:30 a.m.)
Trends to Watch
Liverpool has won five of the last six encounters against Swansea City, which includes a 2-1 road win earlier this season on Oct. 1. The Swans have been the best ‘over’ team (16-5) in the league this season due to a defense that has allowed 49 goals.
Everton and Crystal Palace have played to draws in their last three encounters, two of them ending in 1-1 decisions.
Bournemouth earned a 2-2 draw at Watford in the first meeting this season and that was the third consecutive tie between the pair. The Hornets have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 on the road and bettors have only seen a combined 14 goals scored in those games.
In the last four EPL matches between Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion, bettors have seen a total of three combined goals scored. The ‘under’ cashed in all four games. West Brom has been a solid ‘over’ bet (7-3) at The Hawthorns and it enters this game with 13 goals in its last five played at home.
The home team has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 matches between Manchester United and Stoke City. One of the draws occurred at Old Trafford earlier this season, a 1-1 outcome. United is unbeaten in its last 16 games (12-4-0) in all competitions and the defense has posted nine clean sheets during this span.
Game of the Week – Tottenham at Manchester City
The Premier League is often considered the top completion in all of soccer and Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola is finding that out rather quickly. After opening the season with six consecutive wins and sitting on top of the table, pundits were praising the Spaniard and the transformation of the Citizens.
Then on Oct. 2, Manchester City paid a visit to White Hart Lane and suffered a 2-0 loss to Tottenham. Sine that setback, the Citizens have dropped 18 points and only notched seven victories in its last 14 games. Last Sunday, the Citizens were humbled 4-0 at Everton and have fallen 10 points behind leader Chelsea.
While City has struggled, Tottenham has gone 8-4-2 since beating City and it enters this matchup on a six-game winning streak. The success of the Spurs is their defense and the unit has only allowed 14 goals this season, which is the best mark in the league.
City has nearly surrendered double that amount (26) but it has been better at home (10). In 21 league games this season, Manchester has only managed to keep four clean sheets.
Bettors believing the form of the Spurs is too strong can get down on generous payouts (+270) this Saturday while backing an inconsistent Man City team (+110) isn’t as rewarding.
For what it’s worth, Manchester City has only dropped back-to-back games once in league play this season and it’s never been held to consecutive clean sheets.
The draw (+235) might seem tempting but the pair haven’t played to a tie in 12 meetings, the last instance occurring in the 2010 campaign. During this span, Manchester has come out on top eight times but the Spurs have won the last three in this series while outscoring the Citizens 8-2.
City has been a solid ‘over’ wager (15-6) this season and not surprisingly, the defense of Tottenham has helped produced an 11-10 record to the ‘under.’
Eight of the last 10 encounters between these teams have seen at least three combined goals posted on the scoreboard. Saturday’s total is listed at 2 ½ and shaded to the ‘over’ (-120).
Tottenham midfielder Erik Lamela (hip) is expected to miss time again while Man City could have forward Gabriel Jesus in action with Fernando as well, but Fernandinho is still suspended.
Sunday Chalk
The Premier League has three games on tap for Sunday and the home team has been installed as a heavy favorite in all of the games. When looking at the visitors below, it’s hard to make a case for them knowing the trio is a combined 1-5-23 on the road this season.
Southampton vs. Leicester City: The Foxes won’t be repeating as EPL champions and they could be in trouble of staying up. Southampton is the weakest of the three favorites on Sunday but they have notched four of its six wins this season at St. Mary’s Stadium and Leicester remains winless (0-3-7) on the road. The total on this game is listed at 2 and the ‘under’ (+125) might be worth a look. They played to a scoreless draw in October plus the Saints haven’t been able to score at home (10 goals) and Leicester has only managed eight away goals.
Arsenal vs. Burnley: It’s really amazing that Burnley sits in the 10th place despite only earning one point (0-1-8 ) on the road this season but a great home mark (8-1-3) has helped the cause. The Clarets have been outscored 20-3 on the road and they’ll be facing an Arsenal team that has gone 8-1-3 at Emirates Stadium this season. The Gunners are unbeaten (4-1-0) in their last five league matches versus Burnley, which includes a 1-0 road win on Oct. 2.
Chelsea vs. Hull City: The Blues are laying a heavy price (-600) against the Tigers (+1650) and while anything is possible, it’s tough to argue for the ‘dog in this spot against the league leaders. The Blues dropped Hull 2-0 on the road back in October and have now win five straight league games in this series. The total is hovering around 3 goals and shaded high (-120) but Chelsea has been almost perfect as an ‘over’ lean (9-1) at Stamford Bridge this season. The Blues have tallied 28 goals at home and scored three-plus in six games.