EPL Notebook - Week 32
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
After getting two weeks off for FIFA fixtures in late March, the fatigue factor could be on full display this weekend in the Premier League as teams will be playing their third game in 10 or less days.
Title Race
Chelsea owns a seven-point lead over Tottenham with eight games remaining and remains the odds-on favorite to win the title. After getting stunned 2-1 at home last Saturday to Crystal Palace, the Blues bounced back Wednesday with a 2-1 home win over Manchester City.
On Saturday, Chelsea heads to Bournemouth as a sizeable favorite (-180). Antonio Conte’s squad is unbeaten in its last six road games (4-2-0) and they head into this matchup with three consecutive away wins. The Blues have posted a pair of clean sheets during this span and never allowed more than one goal.
The Cherries (+500) enter this game at Vitality Stadium with confidence as they’re unbeaten in their last five league games (3-2-0). The club is coming off an impressive 2-2 draw at Liverpool this past Wednesday and it’s won two straight in front of its fans. Bournemouth has been much better at home this season (7-3-5) but Chelsea enters this game with the best road mark (10-3-2) in league play.
The Blues have won their last two meetings against Bournemouth in dominating fashion (4-1, 3-0) and are 6-2 in the last eight games.
Chelsea will know how important this game is by the time it starts with Tottenham (-400) hosting Watford (+1100) in the first match of the weekend at 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Similar to last season, the Spurs are making a late run and they enter this game with wins in 12 of their last 15 matches while posting an eye-opening 34 goals. On Wednesday, they rallied past Swansea City for a 3-1 road win at Liberty Stadium with all three of their goals coming after the 88th minute.
Four of the last five games for Tottenham has seen a combined three or more goals posted and this week’s total (3) is expecting more. Watford enters this game with two consecutive wins (2-0, 1-0) but those outcomes took place at home.
On the road, Watford has been outscored 25-12 and that effort has led to a 3-3-8 mark. Considering Tottenham has allowed a league-best eight goals at White Hart Lane this season, another offensive struggle could be expected for the Hornets.
Since rejoining the EPL in 2015, Watford is 0-3 versus Tottenham and that includes a 4-1 setback earlier this season from Vicarage Road.
Fox Hunt
After Leicester City fired manager Claudio Ranieri in February, the club has been revitalized with five consecutive league wins. Craig Shakespeare became the first British manager to win his first five league games this past Tuesday as the Foxes earned a 2-0 home win over Sunderland. During this run, Leicester has outscored opponents 12-5 but four of those wins came at King Power Stadium.
On Sunday, Leicester City (+390) heads to Goodison Park as a healthy underdog to meet Everton (-140). The Toffees had a great run going back to Boxing Day which saw them go unbeaten in nine games (6-3-0) while outscoring opponents 21-7. Since that hot streak, Everton has come back to life with a 2-2-1 mark and were humbled in road losses to Tottenham (3-2) and Liverpool (3-1).
Everton’s success this season has come at home (10-4-1) and it has outscored opponents 34-10 at the Park. After getting swept by Leicester City last season during its championship campaign, Everton will look to repeat the treatment here after it defeated the Foxes 2-0 earlier this season at King Power Stadium.
Make a note that Leicester City has a Champions League quarterfinals matchup at Atletico Madrid this Wednesday as well and the oddsmakers aren’t giving the Foxes (+1150) much of a chance.
Trends to Watch
In their last six matchups in both the Premier and Championship leagues, Burnley and Middlesbrough have combined for six goals. The Boro have gone 3-2-1 during this span but the Clarets captured the lone win this season on Dec. 26 from Turf Moor. This week’s total is holding steady at 2 goals, shaded slightly to the ‘over’ (-120).
Since Hull City was promoted to the Premier League in 2013, the Tigers have gone 0-1-4 in five games against Manchester City and that includes a 3-0 loss in late December from KCOM Stadium. This game has the highest total posted (3 ½) this weekend the pair have only eclipsed that number once in the last five meetings.
Road Chalk
Along with Chelsea, we have three other clubs laying healthy prices as visitors in Matchday 32.
Liverpool (-120) at Stoke City (+315)
These odds could have bettors scratching their heads knowing the Reds haven’t won a Premier League away game this year (2017), earning a total of three points (0-3-2) out of a possible 15. The last road win came at Everton on Dec. 19, 2016. Stoke City has been stronger at home (6-5-4), especially on defense (17 goals) but it hasn’t won since early March and enters this match with a three-game losing streak. Liverpool has posted 4-1 wins in each of the last two encounters against the Potters but it often plays down to its competition. It’s amazing that all five of the losses for the Reds this season have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. Stoke City currently holds the 12th position.
Manchester United (-300) at Sunderland (+850)
Laying this price with United seems foolish considering they’ve drawn (12) more than any other team in league play this season. However, Sunderland sits 10 points out of the relegation zone and it would be miracle to see them stay up. The Black Cats haven’t scored in their last four (0-2-2) at the Stadium of Light and United is tied for the least amount of road goals (13) surrendered this season. United does play a Europa game on Thursday at Anderlecht, which is in Belgium, and that appears to be the club’s only hope to earn a trip to the Champions League next season.
This game takes place at 8:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, with NBCSN providing national coverage.
Arsenal (-135) at Crystal Palace (+350)
Palace had its four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday as it dropped a 3-1 decision at Southampton. Meanwhile, Arsenal picked up a 3-0 home win over West Ham United which was preceded by a 2-2 draw last Sunday versus Manchester City, also from the Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners are clearly more talented than the Eagles and they’re unbeaten (8-2-0) in the last 10 meetings in this series. Still, Arsenal has been in horrible form on the road lately (1-1-5) and they enter this game with three straight losses as visitors with all of the outcomes ending 3-1.
NBCSN will provide national coverage of this game which takes place at 3:00 p.m. ET on Monday.