EPL Notebook - Week 35
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The English Premier League has reached the final month of the season and while many thought Chelsea was on its way to another title, Tottenham continues to remain in the hunt.
The Blues hold a four-point lead over the Spurs for the top spot and remain healthy 1/9 favorites to take home the hardware at 5Dimes.eu. The major offshore outfit has Tottenham as a 7/1 betting choice to win its first ever EPL championship.
Matchday 35 has 10 games on tap and the most important games take place on Sunday and Monday, which includes the aforementioned pair in action.
Let’s take a closer look at those five matchups.
Swansea City at Manchester United
Tough spot for United (-265) and some bettors would call this is a ‘sandwich’ game versus Swansea City (+715). Manchester comes off a scoreless draw in the derby versus Manchester City this past Thursday and it has a Europa League semifinal matchup at Celta de Vigo (Spain) next Thursday.
United is still pushing for a top-four finish in the EPL and the club will enter this game on a 24-game unbeaten run but 11 of those results were draws. Manchester has gone 7-9-1 at home this season and only allowed 11 goals in 17 games, which has helped the ‘under’ 13-4.
Manchester earned a 3-1 win over Swansea City on the road back in November. These teams have combined for three or more goals in five straight meetings and seven of the last eight.
Swansea City has won two of its last four trips to Old Trafford but this year’s squad has struggled on the road (3-1-13) while getting outscored by 20 goals (35-15).
Chelsea at Everton
Looking at Chelsea’s final five games, this will be the toughest test for the Blues (+105) yet the oddsmakers have made them solid favorites over Everton (+255).
The Toffees have only lost twice since mid-December and both of those setbacks have come on the road against contenders Tottenham at Liverpool. At Goodison Park, Everton has gone 12-4-1 this season and it has blitzed opponents with a 41-13 scoring margin. The lone loss came to Liverpool (1-0) on Dec. 19 but they responded from that setback with eight straight wins while outscoring opponents 29-6.
To no surprise, Chelsea owns the best road mark (11-3-3) this season but the home team has gone 4-1-0 in the last five encounters in this series and that includes a 5-0 win by the Blues over Everton back in November. The Toffees probably haven’t forgotten that humbling loss and should be confident with wins over the Blues (2-0, 3-1) in their last two home encounters.
Betting on both teams to score could deserve attention knowing Chelsea has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 league games. The total for Sunday is 2½ and shaded slightly to the ‘over’ (-120).
Manchester City at Middlesbrough
The books are expecting a possible blowout in this matchup with Manchester City (-370) laying a heavy price at Middlesbrough (+1000). City is still chasing a Champions League spot and this past Thursday’s draw in the Manchester derby didn’t help the cause. The Citizens have gone 1-1-1 in their last three on the road and they’ll be facing a Boro squad that just earned its first win of 2017 this past Wednesday versus Sunderland. Unfortunately for them, they haven’t won back-to-back games in the Premier League since 2008 and they remain the most inept offensive team (24 goals) in the league.
The pair played to a 1-1 draw in early November but City captured a 2-1 road win in a FA Cup match recently on Mar. 11 from Riverside Stadium. City leads the league with 36 away goals and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 13-4. Sunday’s total is listed at three goals and shaded to the high side (-125).
Arsenal at Tottenham
The “London Derby” has Arsenal (+295) playing the role of spoiler as it meets Tottenham (-120) from White Hart Lane. The Spurs have failed to finish ahead of their rivals in each of the last 21 seasons, the last instance coming in 1995. However, a victory by Tottenham on Sunday would snap that skid and also likely eliminate Arsenal from any chance at the Top 4.
The most common outcome in this series recently has been draws, with four ties taking place in the last five matchups. The lone victory did go to Tottenham, who captured a 2-1 win in the 2014-15 campaign.
Arsenal’s main issue this season is its play on the road (7-3-6) and it will stumble into this matchup with four losses in its last five away. Meanwhile, Tottenham hasn’t dropped a game at home (15-2-0) this season and they enter this game with a 12-game winning streak at White Hart Lane.
For such an important game, the total seems a tad high at 3 but Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger is expecting players to connect. He said, "I expect an open, committed match with high pace and there could be goals as both teams play positive football."
Tottenham has watched the ‘over’ go 23-9 this season and it’s scored 43 goals at home, which is tied for the best mark in the league with Chelsea. For what it’s worth, the Gunners have scored in 35 of the last 36 EPL derbies versus Tottenham.
Liverpool at Watford
The EPL weekend ends at Vicarage Road on Monday as Liverpool (-200) will look to rebound from 2-1 home loss to Crystal Palace last Sunday. While we still have some season left, this could be a must-win game for the Reds. They hold the third spot in the latest table with 66 points but Manchester clubs City (65) and United (64) are right behind and they both have a game in hand. Plus, they should be ahead of the Reds before this game kicks if they win their games on Sunday.
Liverpool hammered Watford 6-1 at home on Nov. 6 and the oddsmakers have made the Hornets (+535) sizeable underdogs in the rematch. Watford has won three straight at home and they’ve posted clean sheets in all of the victories albeit to inferior opponents.
The Reds own the best offense (70 goals) in the league but they haven’t been as dangers as visitors (28 goals). They’ve been held to one goal or less in six of their last eight road games and that’s translated into a 3-3-2 record.
Off a loss this season, Liverpool has gone 2-3-0 this season and it’s scored a combined nine goals in those games. If the Reds get two on Monday, it’s safe to say that they’ll come up with something.